In June 2010, Greece introduced the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) for pediatric vaccination and has since observed a large decrease in pneumococcal disease caused by these vaccine serotypes, yet the disease prevalence of non-vaccine serotypes has increased. Two higher-valent conjugate vaccines, a 15-valent (PCV15) and a 20-valent (PCV20), were developed to improve serotype coverage and combat serotype replacement. A decision-analytic model was adapted to the Greek setting using historical pneumococcal disease trends from PCV13 to forecast future clinical and economic outcomes of higher-valent PCVs over a 10-year period (2023–2033). The model estimated outcomes related to invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), hospitalized and non-hospitalized pneumonia, and otitis media (OM) resulting from a switch in vaccination programs to PCV15 in 2023 or switching to PCV20 in 2024. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated from the third-party payer’s perspective in the Greek healthcare system. Compared to implementing PCV15 one year earlier, switching from PCV13 to PCV20 in 2024 was estimated to be a cost-saving strategy by saving the Greek health system over EUR 50 million in direct medical costs and averting over 250 IPD cases, 54,800 OM cases, 8450 pneumonia cases, and 255 deaths across all ages over a 10-year period.

Background/Objectives: To evaluate the health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of vaccination with bivalent respiratory syncytial virus stabilized prefusion F vaccine (RSVpreF) for the prevention of lower respiratory tract disease caused by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in Greek adults 60 years of age and older. Methods: A Markov model was adapted to simulate lifetime risk of health and economic outcomes from the public payer’s perspective over a lifetime horizon. Epidemiology, vaccine effectiveness, utilities, and direct medical costs (EUR, 2024) were obtained from published studies, official sources, and local experts. Model outcomes included the number of medically attended RSV cases, stratified by care setting (i.e., hospital, emergency department [ED], outpatient visits [OV]), and attributable RSV-related deaths, costs, life years (LY), quality-adjusted life-years (QALY), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of RSVpreF vaccination compared with no vaccination. Results: The model projected 258,170 hospitalizations, 112,248 ED encounters, 1,201,604 OV, and 25,463 deaths related to RSV in Greek older adults resulting in direct medical costs of EUR 1.6 billion over the lifetime horizon. Assuming RSV vaccination would reach the same coverage rates as pneumococcal and influenza programmes, 18,118 hospitalizations, 7874 ED encounters, 48,079 OV, and 1706 deaths could be prevented over the modelled time horizon. The health benefits associated with RSVpreF contributed to an incremental gain of 10,976 LYs and 7230 QALYs compared with no vaccination. The incremental analysis reported that vaccination with RSVpreF was estimated to be a cost-effective strategy resulting in ICERs of EUR 12,991 per LY gained, EUR 19,723 per QALY gained, and EUR 7870 per hospitalized RSV case avoided compared with no vaccination. Conclusions: Vaccination with RSVpreF was a cost-effective strategy for the prevention of RSV disease in Greek adults over 60 years of age. The introduction of RSV vaccination can improve public health by averting RSV cases and deaths and has the potential to fulfil an unmet medical need.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke and may be difficult to diagnose because of its intermittent nature. The feasibility of screening for undiagnosed AF has been demonstrated in several populations. This study aims to model the impact of screening on AF detection and incidence of stroke between 2020 and 2030 versus background diagnosis only, as well as estimate the cost per averted stroke in each screening scenario. A discrete time, stochastic, individual-based model was developed to assess the efficacy of different screening strategies to diagnose AF among adults aged 6574 in Greece. Two screening approaches were evaluated: a once-off screening with a 12-lead ECG (electrocardiograph) or a 48-hour Holter monitoring followed by a 12-lead ECG. The clinical event for all scenarios was ischemic stroke. Each scenario was assessed (a) in the total undiagnosed population and (b) in high-risk people only (CHA₂DS₂-VASc score3 or 4). Both screening strategies led to better health outcomes (i.e., additional AF cases detected, and strokes avoided) compared to background diagnosis only, across all populations tested, at a manageable cost to the health care system.