This paper discusses some methodological aspects of the historical analysis of drought, particularly the trend assessment. The Standardized Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is widely used as a measure of drought condition. Since different SPEI thresholds allow classifying the risk into moderate, severe, and extreme, the drought occurrence becomes a counting process. In this framework, would a statistical trend test based on a Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP) give a similar result of the nonparametric Mann–Kendall (M-K) test? In this paper, we demonstrate that the NHPP approach is able to characterize the information given by the classical M-K approach in term of drought risk classes. Furthermore, we show how it can be used to reinforce the framework of drought trend analysis in combination with a standard non-parametric approach. At a global scale, we find that: (1) areas under increasing risk of drought identified by the NHPP approach are considerably larger in comparison to those identified by M-K; and (2) the results of the two tests are different during crucial periods such as hydrological droughts in winter and spring.

Italy is divided into 773 Agricultural Regions (ARs) based on shared physical and agronomic characteristics. These regions offer a valuable tool for analyzing various geographical, socio-economic, and environmental aspects of agriculture, including the climate. However, the ARs have lacked geospatial data, limiting their analytical potential. This study introduces the “Italian ARs Dataset”, a georeferenced shapefile defining the boundaries of each AR. This dataset facilitates geographical assessments of Italy’s complex agricultural sector. It also unlocks the potential for integrating AR data with other datasets like the Farm Accounting Data Network (FADN) dataset, in Italy represented by the Rete di Informazione Contabile Agricola (RICA), which samples hundreds of thousands of farms annually. To demonstrate the dataset’s utility, a large sample of RICA data encompassing 179 irrigated crops from 2011 to 2021, covering all of Italy, was retrieved. Validation confirmed successful assignment of all ARs present in the RICA sample to the corresponding shapefile. Additionally, to encourage the use of the ARs Dataset with gridded data, different spatial-scale resolutions are tested to identify a suitable threshold. The minimal spatial scale identified is 0.11 degrees, a commonly adopted scale by several climate datasets within the EURO-CORDEX and COPERNICUS programs.

This paper analyzes the seasonal and annual patterns of precipitation and temperature in the Castelporziano Nature Reserve from 1980. It also considers an index that combines precipitation and evapotranspiration. The results indicate various patterns within this small region, primarily influenced by the distance from the coast. Additionally, there is a clear upward trend in temperature. The joint analysis of precipitation and temperature shows that the most recent years have been characterized as either the hottest and driest or the hottest and most humid. Furthermore, there has been a significant increase in tropical nights and a longer duration of warm spells for maximum temperatures.

Euro-Mediterranean croplands are increasingly exposed to co-occurrent climate extremes that threaten productivity. Using satellite-derived Gross Primary Production (2000-2024) across nine major regions, we assessed the resilience of seasonal crop productivity under drought and heat stress. Recovery after winter deficits was rare (3/15 cases, 20%), whereas summer deficits were followed by recovery in the subsequent winter (16/23, 70%). Non-recovery after summer deficits (7/23) consistently coincided with severe prolonged droughts (median affected area ≈80.6%) and positive surface temperature anomalies (median +1.76 °C). By contrast, non-recovery after winter deficits (12/15) was linked either to hot-dry conditions or, less frequently, to cold anomalies with little drought; recovery occurred only when climatic anomalies were weak or absent. These results show that winter conditions set the baseline for annual productivity and constrain summer resilience. Building on this asymmetry, we propose a framework integrating drought-heat indices into early-warning systems and adaptation planning for Euro-Mediterranean agriculture.