Pluchea ovalis (Pers.) DC. is an invasive alien plant species. It has spread widely on the island of Tenerife since it was first introduced, becoming a major threat to the island’s flora. The aims of this study are to analyze its germination capacity under different environmental conditions (e.g., light and temperature) and determine its effects on soil properties and native plant communities. Germination assays were carried out both in a germination chamber and in a greenhouse. Twelve plots were also established in the field to determine its effect on soil properties and plant species composition. Our results reveal that the germination capacity of Pluchea ovalis decreases under high temperature ranges and increases on flooded substrates. In addition, Pluchea ovalis can modify soil physicochemical properties by increasing soil magnesium content. As its invasive potential has been demonstrated, this study contributes with evidence of its effects on environmental conditions and species composition. Moreover, we recommend its inclusion in the Spanish Alien Invasive Species Catalogue and the development of further studies about its potential distribution and effects in the Canary Islands.

Invasive species represent a significant threat to biodiversity and ecosystem conservation, with their impacts often amplified in island ecosystems. Species distribution models (SDMs) can infer the potential habitat throughout the life of an organism and are considered a valuable tool for predicting the risk of expansion of invasive plants and animals. In our approach, we used an ensemble of four presence–absence models (GLM, GAM, Random Forest, and BART) calibrated only with data collected in Tenerife, the island with the best representation of the species, to infer the habitat suitability for Pluchea ovalis (Pers.) DC. (Asteraceae). Subsequently, we transferred the ensembled model to the rest of the Canarian Island archipelago. Our results show that under near-present conditions, the suitable areas are in the coastal and mid-elevations of the south slope sectors of Tenerife and Gran Canarian Islands, as well as a vast portion of the westernmost and drier islands, always coinciding with ravines and highly disturbed ecosystems. In addition, we forecasted the potential distribution of Pluchea ovalis under different climate change conditions (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585), showing how its habitability would increase in the worst scenarios. Both contexts favor areas gained by the species in places where they are currently not present, revealing new suitable sectors in the westernmost islands.