Résumé : Ce travail identifie les facteurs de synchronisation des cycles industriels entre la Tunisie et ses partenaires européens à travers les modèles ADL, sur des données mensuels, portant sur la période 1993-2010. La datation des cycles par l’Algorithme Bry-Buchan et l’estimation du modèle dont la robustesse est testée montrent qu’à long terme le facteur commercial ne rapproche pas les cycles industriels entre la Tunisie et ses partenaires à cause de l’apprentissage des agents lors de la formulation de leurs anticipations et de la coordination des politiques faisant défaut. Les résultats montrent aussi le rejet de l’hypothèse de Frankel (1996) selon laquelle la synchronisation des cycles est due seulement à l’intensification des échanges commerciaux. Pourtant le marché financier tunisien est sous répression, le facteur financier semble favoriser la synchronisation entre la Tunisie et la France à travers les sentiments des investisseurs. En revanche, le facteur commun favorise la synchronisation entre la Tunisie et ses partenaires européens. Les décideurs en Tunisie n’auraient pas intérêt à mettre en œuvre des barrières commerciales contre leurs échanges bilatéraux et devraient envisager des mécanismes stabilisateurs des effets volatiles des facteurs communs et financiers par un meilleur encadrement des anticipations des agents. Mots Clés : Cycles économiques – Synchronisation – Concordance – Modèle ADL. On the Determinants of Business Cycle Synchronization in Tunisia: an approach by the ADL models This paper identifies factors of industrial cycles’ synchronization between Tunisia and its European partners through the ADL models on monthly data 1: 1993-1912: 2010. Dating and estimation of the model show that long-term trade factor does not approach the industrial cycles between Tunisia and its partners because of the learning mechanism agents and lack of policy coordination. The results show also the rejection of the hypothesis of Frankel (1996) that the synchronization of cycles is only due to the increased trade. Yet the Tunisian financial market is repressed, the financial factor seems to favor the synchronization between Tunisia and France through investor sentiment. However, the common factor promotes synchronization between Tunisia and its European partners. Policymakers in Tunisia would not interest to implement trade barriers against bilateral trade and should consider stabilizing mechanisms volatile effects of common and financial factors by better supervision of agents' expectations. Keywords: Industrial Cycles – Synchronization – Concordance – ADL model. J.E.L. Classification: E32 – F43 – B23

This study assesses the role of institutional quality, macroeconomic performance, and environmental pressures in shaping food security in East Asia. Using a PMG-ARDL panel model with data from China, Singapore, and Japan—three economies characterized by high institutional standards—the analysis covers the period 1996–2023. The findings highlight a strong and statistically significant long-term effect of institutional quality on food production, underlining the essential role of governance in reducing regulatory uncertainty, attracting agricultural investment, and enabling coherent policy frameworks. The CO₂ emissions growth also exhibits a significant negative impact, underscoring that climate change poses a structural threat to food security. Control variables show that population growth and macroeconomic stability enhance food security, reflecting an ability to adapt to demand. In contrast, the effect of inflation is insignificant in the long term. In the short term, the analysis reveals heterogeneity in adjustment. The ECT is negative and significant for Singapore, indicating an effective return to long-term equilibrium. In contrast, it is insignificant for Japan and China, suggesting a lack of automatic convergence due to structural specificities in the short term. Overall, the study demonstrates that sustainable food security in advanced East Asian economies relies not only on productive capacity, but also on effective governance, macroeconomic stability, and the integration of climate considerations into long-term policy strategies.

This study presents a thorough examination of the economic effects of net migration in the United States, Australia, and Germany from 1960 to 2022, using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to assess short- and long-term effects. The findings reveal divergent results. In the United States, migration has no statistically significant effect on economic growth in either period, suggesting that migration cannot sustain growth without complementary measures. In contrast, Australia has a substantial positive correlation between net migration and real GDP per capita, highlighting its role in long-term economic stability. However, in Germany, the effect is only significant in the short term. These findings imply that the effects of migration on the economy are not always consistent and can be impacted by several variables, including fiscal policy and the demands of the labor market today. Therefore, the current study emphasizes the importance of creating migration policies that are flexible enough to respond to both short-term economic fluctuations and long-term structural economic changes.

Background: Climatic shocks are known to undermine food security in rainfed African farming systems, but the evidence base relies overwhelmingly on indicators of energy adequacy and consumption frequency. Whether shocks also alter the composition of diets, independently of their quantity, remains largely untested. Methods: We use four waves of the Malawi Integrated Household Panel Survey (2010, 2013, 2016, and 2019; 5,866 household–wave observations), in which food consumption is recorded item by item in physical quantities and disaggregated by source. Household and wave fixed effects identify associations from within-household variation over time, and our preferred inference uses Conley standard errors that allow for the spatial correlation of rainfall. Results: A 20 percentage point rainfall deficit is not robustly associated with lower energy intake but is associated with a consistent shift in diet composition. The share of dietary energy from nutrient-dense foods falls by about 0.7 percentage points (4.1% of its mean), the staple share rises correspondingly, and dietary energy concentrates on fewer food groups; fruits and pulses bear the adjustment while cereals are unaffected. Own production declines by 1.9 percentage points and households consume 0.7 fewer distinct food items, while real food expenditure does not rise—a pattern of non-compensation rather than substitution toward the market. These four indicators of composition are complementary transformations of the same vector of food-group energy shares rather than independent tests; they move in a consistent direction, but their magnitude is modest and, under our preferred spatially-robust inference, the effect is imprecise and a joint test is not significant (χ ² (4) = 7.75, p = 0.10). Conclusion: The results are consistent with households maintaining energy intake while the composition of the diet shifts toward staples and away from nutrient-dense food groups—a compositional margin that energy-based indicators capture poorly. Because this margin is both small and imprecisely estimated under our preferred spatially-robust inference, the study carries a methodological caution as much as a substantive finding: analyses of climate shocks on diets that rely on energy-based measures, or on standard errors that ignore spatial dependence, are liable to report effects that are larger and more statistically secure than the data support.