One of the factors impeding the decline in poverty in Indonesia is the government’s lack of attention to the need to reduce income inequality. Fiscal policy and economic growth can effectively reduce poverty by lowering income inequality, so the inequality channel must be considered. Socioeconomic and infrastructure differences between provinces can influence the effectiveness of economic growth and fiscal policy in reducing poverty. This study aimed to assess the effects of economic growth and fiscal policy regarding spending and taxes on direct and indirect poverty reduction through lowering income inequality, as well as considering how these variables influence poverty by province. This study employed secondary data, including panel data for 2010–2023 from 34 provinces in Indonesia, which were analyzed using autoregressive cross-lagged SEM. This study found that economic growth and fiscal policy regarding spending on education and health are statistically significant in directly reducing poverty in regions outside Java but do not affect it through income inequality. Taxes increase income inequality, and the social safety net does not reduce poverty outside Java. The increased spending on education and health should continue, but improvements are needed in terms of targeting social safety nets and tax reforms to strengthen the system and reduce inequality.

Climate change presents a significant threat to Indonesia’s agricultural sector, which is a crucial pillar of the nation’s economy and food security. This study investigates both the short- and long-term impacts of climate change on agricultural output in Indonesia, using an autoregressive distributed lag–error correction model approach and annual time series data from 1983 to 2019. The findings suggest that an increase in the number of hot days (T-max > 30 °C) exerts a significant negative short-term impact on agricultural output, reducing it by 0.085%. In contrast, carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and fertiliser consumption have significant positive effects in the long term, with an increase of 0.403% and 0.625%, respectively. Extreme temperatures consistently reduce agricultural output and thus require adaptation strategies, whereas CO₂ has the potential to stimulate crop growth and increase productivity. To solve these problems and improve food security, policies should focus on climate-smart farming practices. This includes managing emissions responsibly, using different types of inputs, producing more organic fertilisers locally, and accelerating the development of biofertilisers. This strategy will enhance climate resilience by harmonising economic efficiency and ecological sustainability within Indonesia’s food system.

In encouraging domestic industrialization, Indonesia plans to stop exporting raw materials for other commodities, including bauxite, tin, coal and copper. This study aims to assess the economic impact of the mineral export ban on Indonesia and other countries. The comparative-static version of the computable general equilibrium model (Global Tarde Analysis Project (GTAP)) is used to analyse the economic impact of the export ban, with a particular focus on GDP, welfare, terms of trade and external trade. The most recent GTAP version 9 database was used for the modelling simulations of the export ban. The GTAP version 9 database has three reference years: 2004, 2007 and 2011. It already aggregates 140 regions and 57 sectors. The modelling simulation results show that the policy of bauxite, copper and tin export tyres benefits the Indonesian economy. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s export ban policy harmed the economies of other countries, particularly China, Japan, India, Korea and the EU-28.

One of the factors leading to the slow decline in poverty in Indonesia is the lack of government at-tention to reduce income inequality. Fiscal policy and economic growth can effectively reduce poverty after lowering income inequality, so the inequality channel must be considered. Socioec-onomic and infrastructure differences between provinces can influence the effectiveness of eco-nomic growth and fiscal policy in reducing poverty. This study aims to assess the effects of eco-nomic growth and fiscal policy on spending and taxes on direct and indirect poverty reduction through lowering income inequality and how these variables influence poverty by province. This study employed secondary data, including panel data for 2010-2023 from 34 provinces in Indo-nesia, which were analyzed using an autoregressive cross-lagged SEM model. The study finds that economic growth and fiscal policy on spending on education and health are statistically sig-nificant in reducing poverty directly in non-Java but do not affect it through income inequality. Taxes increase income inequality, and the social safety net does not reduce poverty outside Java. Increased spending on education and health should continue, with improvements in targeting so-cial safety nets and tax reforms needed to make the system more progressive and reduce inequality