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Low- and middle-income country cities face unprecedented urbanization and growth in slums. Gridded population data (e.g., ~100 × 100 m) derived from demographic and spatial data are a promising source of population estimates, but face limitations in slums due to the dynamic nature of this population as well as modelling assumptions. In this study, we compared field-referenced boundaries and population counts from Slum Dwellers International in Lagos (Nigeria), Port Harcourt (Nigeria), and Nairobi (Kenya) with nine gridded population datasets to assess their statistical accuracy in slums. We found that all gridded population estimates vastly underestimated population in slums (RMSE: 4958 to 14,422, Bias: −2853 to −7638), with the most accurate dataset (HRSL) estimating just 39 per cent of slum residents. Using a modelled map of all slums in Lagos to compare gridded population datasets in terms of SDG 11.1.1 (percent of population living in deprived areas), all gridded population datasets estimated this indicator at just 1–3 per cent compared to 56 per cent using UN-Habitat’s approach. We outline steps that might improve that accuracy of each gridded population dataset in deprived urban areas. While gridded population estimates are not yet sufficiently accurate to estimate SDG 11.1.1, we are optimistic that some could be used in the future following updates to their modelling approaches.
Dana Thomson; Andrea Gaughan; Forrest Stevens; Gregory Yetman; Peter Elias; Robert Chen. Evaluating the Accuracy of Gridded Population Estimates in Slums: A Case Study in Nigeria and Kenya. Urban Science 2021, 5, 48 .
AMA StyleDana Thomson, Andrea Gaughan, Forrest Stevens, Gregory Yetman, Peter Elias, Robert Chen. Evaluating the Accuracy of Gridded Population Estimates in Slums: A Case Study in Nigeria and Kenya. Urban Science. 2021; 5 (2):48.
Chicago/Turabian StyleDana Thomson; Andrea Gaughan; Forrest Stevens; Gregory Yetman; Peter Elias; Robert Chen. 2021. "Evaluating the Accuracy of Gridded Population Estimates in Slums: A Case Study in Nigeria and Kenya." Urban Science 5, no. 2: 48.
Low- and middle-income country cities face unprecedented urbanization and growth in slums. Gridded population data in small grid squares (e.g., 100x100m) derived from demographic and spatial data are a promising source of current population estimates, but face limitations in slums due to the dynamic nature of this population as well as modelling assumptions. The efficacy of using gridded population data in slum areas remains a question mark especially in the context of UN SDG indicator development. In this study, we use field-referenced boundaries and population counts from Slum Dwellers International (SDI) in Lagos (Nigeria), Port Harcourt (Nigeria), and Nairobi (Kenya) to assess the accuracy of nine gridded population datasets in slums. We also use a modelled map of all slums in Lagos to assess use of gridded population dataset for SDG11.1.1 (percent of population living in deprived areas). We found that all gridded population estimates vastly under-estimated population counts in populous slums, and the calculation of SDG11.1.1 in Lagos was impossibly low; gridded population datasets estimated that just 1-3% of the Lagos population lived in slums, compared to 56% using the UN-Habitat approach. We outline specific steps that might be taken to improve each gridded population dataset in deprived urban areas. While gridded population estimates are not yet sufficiently accurate to estimate SDG11.1.1, we are optimistic that some datasets could be following updates to their modelling approaches.
Dana R. Thomson; Andrea E. Gaughan; Forrest R. Stevens; Gregory Yetman; Peter Elias; Robert Chen. Evaluating the Accuracy of Gridded Population Estimates in Slums: A Case Study in Nigeria and Kenya. 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleDana R. Thomson, Andrea E. Gaughan, Forrest R. Stevens, Gregory Yetman, Peter Elias, Robert Chen. Evaluating the Accuracy of Gridded Population Estimates in Slums: A Case Study in Nigeria and Kenya. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleDana R. Thomson; Andrea E. Gaughan; Forrest R. Stevens; Gregory Yetman; Peter Elias; Robert Chen. 2021. "Evaluating the Accuracy of Gridded Population Estimates in Slums: A Case Study in Nigeria and Kenya." , no. : 1.
Peter Elias. Inclusive City, Perspectives, Challenges, and Pathways. Encyclopedia of the UN Sustainable Development Goals 2020, 290 -300.
AMA StylePeter Elias. Inclusive City, Perspectives, Challenges, and Pathways. Encyclopedia of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. 2020; ():290-300.
Chicago/Turabian StylePeter Elias. 2020. "Inclusive City, Perspectives, Challenges, and Pathways." Encyclopedia of the UN Sustainable Development Goals , no. : 290-300.
Peter Elias. Inclusive City, Perspectives, Challenges, and Pathways. Encyclopedia of the UN Sustainable Development Goals 2019, 1 -11.
AMA StylePeter Elias. Inclusive City, Perspectives, Challenges, and Pathways. Encyclopedia of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. 2019; ():1-11.
Chicago/Turabian StylePeter Elias. 2019. "Inclusive City, Perspectives, Challenges, and Pathways." Encyclopedia of the UN Sustainable Development Goals , no. : 1-11.
The evidences of climate change impacts in African coastal communities are increasing in varying proportions with different mitigation and adaptation options. Communicating climate change impacts, mitigations and adaptations is often problematic owing to poor socioeconomic characteristics of African coastal communities. An attempt to communicate climate change impacts, mitigations and adaptations during the 2010 and 2011 flood events in Lagos coastal communities was difficult. This underscores the need to analyse local evidences of climate change impacts and the influence of socioeconomic conditions on climate change communication for Lagos coastal communities. The paper examines local evidences of climate change impacts in the context of flood events and demonstrate how diverse socioeconomic characteristics of selected coastal communities of Lagos could influence communication of climate change impacts, mitigations and adaptations. The approach was explorative involving the analysis of climate data, existing statistical data and social survey to understand the realities, perception/awareness and challenge of climate change communication in the context of the 2010 and 2011 flood events. Ten Lagos coastal communities were purposively selected based on the intensity of the 2010 and 2011 flood events and the general income group classification of the Lagos State Waste Management Authority (LAWMA). The selected communities were those in the high income (Eti-Osa, Eti-Osa East, Iru/Victoria Island, Lagos Island and Lekki), middle income (Ibeju), low income (Agboyi Ketu. Badagry, Bariga), and low medium (Ikorodu) groups of the coastal communities (LAWMA 2011). The scope of this paper is limited to providing differences in local evidences of climate change impacts based on the perceptions of the 2010 and 2011 flood events by households and the analysis of differences in socioeconomic characteristics of households for an understanding of how they could influence climate change communication in the selected Lagos coastal communities. The paper outlines key lessons and the prospects for evolving effective climate change communication for Lagos coastal communities. The responses of the coastal communities including the perception of the impacts, probability and risks differed majorly due largely to differences in locations more than income groups. Understanding local evidences of climate change impacts and differences in socioeconomic characteristics of coastal communities are significant for understanding, perception and awareness of the impacts of climate change and evolving appropriate climate change communication options. Using multi-level channels of communication could enhance collaboration and cooperation if properly managed otherwise it could results in negative consequences of unhealthy competition, conflicts and crisis. Responses and communication must involve coordination and cooperation at multiple levels of governance structure for mobilizing funds, implementing projects and ensuring stakeholders’ commitments.
Peter Elias. The Challenges of Climate Change Communication for Lagos Coastal Communities. Climate Change Management 2017, 129 -145.
AMA StylePeter Elias. The Challenges of Climate Change Communication for Lagos Coastal Communities. Climate Change Management. 2017; ():129-145.
Chicago/Turabian StylePeter Elias. 2017. "The Challenges of Climate Change Communication for Lagos Coastal Communities." Climate Change Management , no. : 129-145.
This chapter seeks to examine Africa’s development initiatives with a view to understanding the different philosophies, perspectives, priorities and impacts regarding Africa’s development. These initiatives are global or continental, homegrown or borrowed, palliative or harmful, reactionary or proactive. The development initiatives also cut across economic development, industrialization, democratic governance, education, health, human rights, regional integration, agriculture, social policy, science and technology, poverty reduction, human settlements and the environment and so on. They include the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), Agenda 2063, the New Economic Partnership for African Development (NEPAD), The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), and so on. Observably, the state of the African continent is a mirror of the performance of these development initiatives. This chapter therefore focuses on the following frequently asked questions: What are African development initiatives? Who formed them and for whose interests? What are their global counterparts? Are there any relationships between the continental and global initiatives and why? What are the existing and current debates? How successful or unsuccessful have the development initiatives been in driving the development of Africa? How can the development initiatives be strengthened to help Africa’s development? The aim of the chapter is to study Africa’s development initiatives with the following specific objectives: to (i) undertake a historical analysis of Africa’s development initiatives to show how, and to what extent, Africa’s development initiatives are shaped by global development; (ii) provide cross-sectional views of the nature and role of Africa’s development initiatives; (iii) show the identities, interests and underlying motivations of Africa’s development initiatives; (iv) evaluate the factors accounting for how successful or unsuccessful Africa’s development initiatives have been; and (v) suggest strategies for strengthening Africa’s development initiatives for regional development. The chapter adopts an extensive desk review and critical analysis of relevant publications of organizations such as ECOWAS, the AU, SADC, the EU, the World Bank and the United Nations, among others, to synthesize historical narratives, policies, responses, practices, and data on regional and sub-regional organizations within and outside Africa for comparison. The nature of African development initiatives cannot be divorced from the rich historical foundations which underpins the various deveploment experiences. The pattern of development in Africa is a product of several forces both locally derived and globally controlled. Therefore, the development indicators and performance should be understood in the context of the dominant controlling philosophical thoughts and associated African development initiatives.
Peter Elias. African Development Initiatives. Understanding and Investigating Response Processes in Validation Research 2017, 357 -374.
AMA StylePeter Elias. African Development Initiatives. Understanding and Investigating Response Processes in Validation Research. 2017; ():357-374.
Chicago/Turabian StylePeter Elias. 2017. "African Development Initiatives." Understanding and Investigating Response Processes in Validation Research , no. : 357-374.
Indigenous traditional knowledge and biodiversity are complimentary phenomena essential to human development and sustainable resource management. The rural communities have a significant role to play in maintaining the integrity of ecosystems to ensure that they continue to support livelihood activities. This paper focuses on the use of traditional knowledge in the management of forest resources in the Nigerian savanna and how this knowledge has been used to improve the livelihoods of the people. It combines focus group discussions, key informants interviews and household survey in 11 communities across 10 local councils with vegetal surveys. The study reveales that the respondents possess wide knowledge of the natural resources they use. It recommends that strategic programmes are more likely to succeed if land degradation, biodiversity loss and ecosystem services are considered in poverty alleviation and food security.
Felix Olorunfemi; Mayowa Fasona; Grace Oloukoi; Peter Elias; Vide Adedayo. Traditional Knowledge in the Use and Management of Forest Ecosystem for Livelihoods and Food Security in Nigerian Savanna. JOURNAL OF HUMAN ECOLOGY 2016, 53, 167 -175.
AMA StyleFelix Olorunfemi, Mayowa Fasona, Grace Oloukoi, Peter Elias, Vide Adedayo. Traditional Knowledge in the Use and Management of Forest Ecosystem for Livelihoods and Food Security in Nigerian Savanna. JOURNAL OF HUMAN ECOLOGY. 2016; 53 (2):167-175.
Chicago/Turabian StyleFelix Olorunfemi; Mayowa Fasona; Grace Oloukoi; Peter Elias; Vide Adedayo. 2016. "Traditional Knowledge in the Use and Management of Forest Ecosystem for Livelihoods and Food Security in Nigerian Savanna." JOURNAL OF HUMAN ECOLOGY 53, no. 2: 167-175.
The chapter investigates the observed and perceived trends and effects of rainfall on food production and identifies options that are adopted by farmers in dealing with the impacts in the Nigerian savannah. Data were sourced via community engagement, key informant interviews, and a survey of 191 farming households from 11 farm settlements in the region. Arithmetic monthly means of rainfall and temperature data from six meteorological stations within the ecological zones were used to generate the past and long-term trends of local climate. The study shows no significant variation of monthly mean rainfall across three decades of the observed data. However, there were similarities between the observed long-term averages of the station data and local perception that the amount of annual rainfall is decreasing, with delay in the onset of rain and increased trend of temperature. The variability impacts land-related livelihoods activities which are substantially tied to rain feeding. Annual planting seasons for cereals is changing from double to single, while harvest of tubers and nuts are gradually reducing. There are no organized adaptation frameworks, but when impacts are perceived by the farmers, coping ensued in the form of crop switch as on-farm modification and charcoal production as a form of off-farm livelihoods diversification. Available coping mechanisms are not adequate because they are leading to the ecosystem degradation. Local capacities need to be enhanced for improved food security and protection of ecosystems in the study area.
Grace Oloukoi; Mayowa Fasona; Felix Olorunfemi; Peter Elias; Vide Adedayo. Dealing with Rainfall Variability for Food Production in the Nigerian Savannah. Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation 2015, 1807 -1834.
AMA StyleGrace Oloukoi, Mayowa Fasona, Felix Olorunfemi, Peter Elias, Vide Adedayo. Dealing with Rainfall Variability for Food Production in the Nigerian Savannah. Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation. 2015; ():1807-1834.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGrace Oloukoi; Mayowa Fasona; Felix Olorunfemi; Peter Elias; Vide Adedayo. 2015. "Dealing with Rainfall Variability for Food Production in the Nigerian Savannah." Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation , no. : 1807-1834.
The chapter investigates the observed and perceived trends and effects of rainfall on food production and identifies options that are adopted by farmers in dealing with the impacts in the Nigerian savannah. Data were sourced via community engagement, key informant interviews, and a survey of 191 farming households from 11 farm settlements in the region. Arithmetic monthly means of rainfall and temperature data from six meteorological stations within the ecological zones were used to generate the past and long-term trends of local climate. The study shows no significant variation of monthly mean rainfall across three decades of the observed data. However, there were similarities between the observed long-term averages of the station data and local perception that the amount of annual rainfall is decreasing, with delay in the onset of rain and increased trend of temperature. The variability impacts land-related livelihoods activities which are substantially tied to rain feeding. Annual planting seasons for cereals is changing from double to single, while harvest of tubers and nuts are gradually reducing. There are no organized adaptation frameworks, but when impacts are perceived by the farmers, coping ensued in the form of crop switch as on-farm modification and charcoal production as a form of off-farm livelihoods diversification. Available coping mechanisms are not adequate because they are leading to the ecosystem degradation. Local capacities need to be enhanced for improved food security and protection of ecosystems in the study area.
Grace Oloukoi; Mayowa Fasona; Felix Olorunfemi; Peter Elias; Vide Adedayo. Dealing with Rainfall Variability for Food Production in the Nigerian Savannah. Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation 2014, 1 -22.
AMA StyleGrace Oloukoi, Mayowa Fasona, Felix Olorunfemi, Peter Elias, Vide Adedayo. Dealing with Rainfall Variability for Food Production in the Nigerian Savannah. Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation. 2014; ():1-22.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGrace Oloukoi; Mayowa Fasona; Felix Olorunfemi; Peter Elias; Vide Adedayo. 2014. "Dealing with Rainfall Variability for Food Production in the Nigerian Savannah." Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation , no. : 1-22.