The advent of antiretroviral therapy has significantly improved AIDS-related morbidity and mortality. Yet, among people living with HIV, deaths due to non-AIDS-defining illnesses have been on the rise. The objective of this study was to provide information about the global prevalence and distribution of non-AIDS causes of death in the last ten years among people living with HIV receiving antiretroviral therapy, by income levels of countries. We used broad search terms in Google Scholar, PubMed, and EMBASE to identify all studies that investigated the cause of death among people living with HIV receiving antiretroviral therapy, published after January 1, 2005. References were also identified from review articles and reference lists. Inclusion criteria were English language, the study’s end date was after 2005, all patients were HIV-positive, at least two-thirds of the patients were receiving antiretroviral therapy, at least one patient died of non-AIDS causes of death. Titles, abstracts, and articles were reviewed by at least two independent readers. Of 2951 titles identified in our original search, 151 articles were selected for further screening. We identified 19 studies meeting our full criteria, with patients from 55 different nations. Pooled non-AIDS causes of death prevalence estimates in high-income countries were 53.0% (95% confidence interval, 43.6–62.3), in developing countries 34.0% (95% confidence interval, 20.3–49.1), and in sub-Saharan countries 18.5% (95% confidence interval, 13.8–23.7). Statistically significant variation was noted within and between categories. Our findings show that a significant number of people living with HIV across the world die from cardiovascular disease, non-AIDS malignancies, and liver disease. There is a global need for further scrutiny in all regions to improve preventive measures and early detection according to distinct causes of death patterns.

Botswana, in sub-Saharan Africa, reports one of the highest rates of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in the world, with an estimated 23.4% of individuals aged 15 to 49 years having HIV infection in 2011.¹ Moreover, HIV subtype C, the subtype most prevalent in Botswana, has been associated with more prolonged early viremia and a higher set point than other HIV subtypes, with more adverse health consequences.^2,3

Short-term mortality rates among patients with HIV receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa are higher than those recorded in high-income countries, but systematic long-term comparisons have not been made because of the scarcity of available data. We analysed the effect of the implementation of Botswana's national ART programme, known as Masa, from 2002 to 2010. The Masa programme started on Jan 21, 2002. Patients who were eligible for ART according to national guidelines had their data collected prospectively through a clinical information system developed by the Botswana Ministry of Health. A dataset of all available electronic records for adults (≥18 years) who had enrolled by April 30, 2010, was extracted and sent to the study team. All data were anonymised before analysis. The primary outcome was mortality. To assess the effect of loss to follow-up, we did a series of sensitivity analyses assuming varying proportions of the population lost to follow-up to be dead. We analysed the records of 126,263 patients, of whom 102,713 had documented initiation of ART. Median follow-up time was 35 months (IQR 14-56), with a median of eight follow-up visits (4-14). 15,270 patients were deemed lost to follow-up by the end of the study. 63% (78,866) of the study population were women; median age at baseline was 34 years for women (IQR 29-41) and 38 years for men (33-45). 10,230 (8%) deaths were documented during the 9 years of the study. Mortality was highest during the first 3 months after treatment initiation at 12·8 deaths per 100 person-years (95% CI 12·4-13·2), but decreased to 1·16 deaths per 100 person-years (1·12-1·2) in the second year of treatment, and to 0·15 deaths per 100 person-years (0·09-0·25) over the next 7 years of follow-up. In each calendar year after the start of the Masa programme in 2002, average CD4 cell counts at enrolment increased (from 101 cells/μL [IQR 44-156] in 2002, to 191 cells/μL [115-239] in 2010). In each year, the proportion of the total enrolled population who died in that year decreased, from 63% (88 of 140) in 2002, to 0·8% (13 of 1599) in 2010. A sensitivity analysis assuming that 60% of the population lost to follow-up had died gave 3000 additional deaths, increasing overall mortality from 8% to 11-13%. The Botswana national HIV/AIDS treatment programme reduced mortality among adults with HIV to levels much the same as in other low-income or middle-income countries. The African Comprehensive HIV/AIDS Partnerships.

Objectives:To determine the incidence and risk factors of mortality for all HIV-infected patients receiving antiretroviral treatment at public and private healthcare facilities in the Botswana National HIV/AIDS Treatment Programme.Design:We studied routinely collected data from 226030 patients enrolled in the Botswana National HIV/AIDS Treatment Programme from 2002 to 2013.Methods:A person-years (P-Y) approach was used to analyse all-cause mortality and follow-up rates for all HIV-infected individuals with documented antiretroviral therapy initiation dates. Marginal structural modelling was utilized to determine the effect of treatment on survival for those with documented drug regimens. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the robustness of our results.Results:Median follow-up time was 37 months (interquartile range 11-75). Mortality was highest during the first 3 months after treatment initiation at 11.79 (95% confidence interval 11.49-12.11) deaths per 100 P-Y, but dropped to 1.01 (95% confidence interval 0.98-1.04) deaths per 100 P-Y after the first year of treatment. Twelve-month mortality declined from 7 to 2% of initiates during 2002-2012. Tenofovir was associated with lower mortality than stavudine and zidovudine.Conclusion:The observed mortality rates have been declining over time; however, mortality in the first year, particularly first 3 months of antiretroviral treatment, remains a distinct problem. This analysis showed lower mortality with regimens containing tenofovir compared with zidovudine and stavudine. CD4(+) cell count less than 100 cells/l, older age and being male were associated with higher odds of mortality. Copyright (C) 2016 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.