Objective: To determine whether the observed-to-expected lung-to-head ratio (O/E LHR) independently predicts the need for delayed abdominal wall closure (DAC) in isolated left-sided congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH), and to establish an optimal cut-off value. Design: Retrospective, single-centre cohort study. Setting: Tertiary referral centre, Hospital Universitario La Paz, Madrid, Spain, January 2015 to May 2026. Patients: 45 neonates with isolated left-sided CDH; 28 underwent primary abdominal closure and 17 required DAC. Interventions: None (observational study). Main outcome measures: Need for DAC; discriminative capacity of O/E LHR for DAC and its optimal cut-off; O/E LHR–DAC association adjusted for liver herniation. Results: DAC was associated with lower gestational age at birth (37.00 [34.00–38.00] vs 39.00 [38.00–39.00] weeks), lower birth weight (2,690 [2,290–3,210] vs 3,120 [2,968– 3,285] g), higher rates of liver herniation (13/17 vs 1/28), greater ECMO requirement (9/17 [52.9%] vs 3/28 [10.7%]), and higher in-hospital mortality (35.3% vs 3.6%) than primary closure. O/E LHR showed excellent discriminative ability for DAC (AUC 0.939, 95% CI 0.877 to 1.000), with an optimal cut-off of 34.1% (sensitivity 82.4%, specificity 82.1%, positive predictive value 73.7%, negative predictive value 88.5%). O/E LHR remained independently associated with DAC after adjustment for liver herniation (adjusted OR 0.82 per one-point increase, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.94). Conclusions: O/E LHR was independently associated with the risk of DAC beyond the effect of liver herniation. These preliminary findings suggest a role for O/E LHR in prenatal risk stratification for DAC, pending external validation in larger, multicentre cohorts. What’s already known about this topic?: O/E LHR is an established prenatal predictor of survival and pulmonary morbidity in isolated CDH. Delayed abdominal closure has been linked to lower LHR, liver herniation, and higher ECMO use and mortality, but without adjusting for confounders or using O/E LHR. What does this study add?: O/E LHR independently predicts DAC risk beyond liver herniation, with excellent discriminative ability (AUC 0.939) and a proposed cut-off of 34.1%, extending its prognostic role to this surgical outcome. Data availability statement: The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request. Note: This study is based on a cohort that partially overlaps with our previously published report on delayed dynamic abdominal wall closure using a Gore-Tex patch 1 , which addressed surgical technique and outcomes. The present study addresses the distinct question of prenatal predictors of the need for delayed closure. This overlap is disclosed in accordance with ICMJE recommendations.