Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector's ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i) potential change in niche breadth, ii) direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii) shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3), for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%), while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys' ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases. The present study models the niche of the most abundant sand fly species in North and Central America, including all proven and incriminated vectors of Leishmaniases, an important neglected tropical disease of the region. The expansion and elevation or centroid shifts of the species' niche are modeled for extreme (A2) and conservative (B2) climate change scenarios to 2020, 2050 and 2080. In climate change scenarios, models predict significant niche breadth changes in geographic space, principally in temperate sand fly species, while elevation shifts occur principally in tropical, and greatest, in vector species. Niche centroid shifts for individual species were predominately to the northwest, and secondarily to the northeast. The highest proportion of human population at-risk for contact with a vector species was with Lutzomyia diabolica and Lutzomyia shannoni. Despite the fact that Lutzomyia olmeca olmeca is the only confirmed vector species in Mexico, the present study demonstrates a significant niche identity between Leishmania spp. and Lutzomyia cruciata.

Leishmaniases are a group of vector-borne diseases with different clinical manifestations caused by parasites transmitted by sand fly vectors. In Mexico, the sand fly Lutzomyia olmeca olmeca is the only vector proven to transmit the parasite Leishmania mexicana to humans, which causes leishmaniasis. Other vector species with potential medical importance have been obtained, but their geographic distributions and relation to transmission areas have never been assessed. We modeled the ecological niches of nine sand fly species and projected niches to estimate potential distributions by using known occurrences, environmental coverages, and the algorithms GARP and Maxent. All vector species were distributed in areas with known recurrent transmission, except for Lu. diabolica, which appeared to be related only to areas of occasional transmission in northern Mexico. The distribution of Lu. o. olmeca does not overlap with all reported cutaneous leishmaniasis cases, suggesting that Lu. cruciata and Lu. shannoni are likely also involved as primary vectors in those areas. Our study provides useful information of potential risk areas of leishmaniasis transmission in Mexico.

Land-use change has led to a dramatic decrease in total forest cover, contributing to biodiversity loss and changes of ecosystems’ functions. Insect communities of medical importance can be favored by anthropogenic alterations, increasing the risk of novel zoonotic diseases. The response of mosquito (Diptera: Culicidae) abundance and richness to five land-use types (shade coffee plantation, cattle field, urban forest, peri-urban forest, well-preserved montane cloud forest) and three seasons (“dry”, “rainy” and “cold”) embedded in a neotropical montane cloud forest landscape was evaluated. Standardized collections were performed using 8 CDC miniature black-light traps, baited with CO2 throughout the year. Generalized additive mixed models were used to describe the seasonal and spatial trends of both species richness and abundance. Rank abundance curves and ANCOVAs were used to detect changes in the spatial and temporal structure of the mosquito assemblage. Two cluster analyses were conducted, using 1-βsim and the Morisita-Horn index to evaluate species composition shifts based on incidences and abundances. A total of 2536 adult mosquitoes were collected, belonging to 9 genera and 10 species; the dominant species in the study were: Aedes quadrivittatus, Wyeomyia adelpha, Wy. arthrostigma, and Culex restuans. Highest richness was recorded in the dry season, whereas higher abundance was detected during the rainy season. The urban forest had the highest species richness (n = 7) when compared to all other sites. Species composition cluster analyses show that there is a high degree of similarity in species numbers across sites and seasons throughout the year. However, when considering the abundance of such species, the well-preserved montane cloud forest showed significantly higher abundance. Moreover, the urban forest is only 30 % similar to other sites in terms of species abundances, indicating a possible isolating role of the urban environment. Mosquito assemblage was differentially influenced by land-use change and seasonality, but at the same time the assemblage is rather homogeneous across the studied landscape, suggesting a high degree of spatial connectivity. Information generated in this study is potentially useful in the development of urban planning and surveillance programs focused mainly on mosquito species of medical and veterinary importance.

To identify the relationship between landscape use and dengue virus (DENV) occurrence in bats, we investigated the presence of DENV from anthropogenically changed and unaltered landscapes in two Biosphere Reserves: Calakmul (Campeche) and Montes Azules (Chiapas) in southern Mexico. Spleen samples of 146 bats, belonging to 16 species, were tested for four DENV serotypes with standard reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) protocols. Six bats (4.1%) tested positive for DENV-2: four bats in Calakmul (two Glossophaga soricina, one Artibeus jamaicensis, and one A. lituratus) and two bats in Montes Azules (both A. lituratus). No effect of anthropogenic disturbance on the occurrence of DENV was detected; however, all three RT-PCR–positive bat species are considered abundant species in the Neotropics and well-adapted to disturbed habitats. To our knowledge, this study is the first study conducted in southeastern Mexico to identify DENV-2 in bats by a widely accepted RT-PCR protocol. The role that bats play on DENV's ecology remains undetermined.