Indonesia’s commitment to the Paris Agreement and its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) is not adequately reflected in the significant CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel-intensive energy sectors, despite the enormous potential of renewable energy sources in the country. The ongoing coal regime has led to electricity oversupply and air pollution problems. Despite the huge challenges for Indonesia, a just energy transition away from fossil fuel is crucial. This study aims to explore the ideal energy mix and key emission reduction pathway in Indonesia in achieving a just energy transition using the least-cost optimisation energy modelling tool OSeMOSYS. Six scenarios are modelled over the period 2015–2050 including coal phase-out, NDC, the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), and carbon tax implementation. The results highlight that solar power, geothermal power, and hydropower are the alternatives for coal decommissioning. Despite the large-scale investment in renewable energy under the NDC and JETP scenarios, emissions could be reduced by 55% and 52%, respectively, by 2050. Moreover, Indonesia’s current carbon tax rate will not lead to a significant emission reduction. Three recommended policies include (1) accelerating CFPP retirement; (2) imposing an aggressive carbon tax rate; (3) prioritising investment in solar technologies.
Morocco, despite its heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels, which made up 68% of electricity generation in 2020, has recognised its significant renewable energy potential. The Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) commitment is to reduce emissions by 45.5% from baseline levels with international assistance and abstain from constructing new coal plants. Moreover, the Green Hydrogen Roadmap aims to export 10 TWh of green hydrogen by 2030, as well as use it for local electricity storage. This paper critically analyses this Roadmap and Morocco’s readiness to reach its ambitious targets, focusing specifically on an energy trilemma perspective and using OSeMOSYS (Open-Source energy Modelling System) for energy modelling. The results reveal that the NDC scenario is only marginally more expensive than the least-cost scenario, at around 1.3% (approximately USD 375 million), and facilitates a 23.32% emission reduction by 2050. An important note is the continued reliance on existing coal power plants across all scenarios, which challenges both energy security and emissions. The assessment of the Green Hydrogen Scenarios highlights that it could be too costly for the Moroccan government to fund the Green Hydrogen Roadmap at this scale, which leads to increased imports of polluting fossil fuels for cost reduction. In fact, the emission levels are 39% higher in the green hydrogen exports scenario than in the least-cost scenario. Given these findings, it is recommended that the Green Hydrogen Roadmap be re-evaluated, with a suggestion for a postponement and reduction in scope.
Energy modelling plays a crucial role in assisting governmental and policymaking bodies to strategise long-term investments within the context of energy transition. Among the well-established open-source optimisation models, OSeMOSYS—the Open-Source Energy Modelling System—stands out. This paper introduces clicSAND, a novel user interface designed for OSeMOSYS, aimed at reducing the learning curve and supporting novice energy modelers in efficiently conducting long-term investment analyses. clicSAND, freely available and open-source, features a user-friendly Excel interface for data input, integrated solvers, and a visualisation dashboard for result interpretation. The outcomes, projected up to 2070, hold the potential to inform policy decisions and mobilise financial resources for sustainable development endeavors, such as ensuring affordable and secure energy supply and mitigating climate change impacts. This advancement not only democratises access to energy modelling tools but also empowers policymakers and stakeholders to conduct thorough long-term investment analyses with ease. This paper elaborates on clicSAND’s key advantages, architecture, and functionalities. Additionally, it discusses the evolutionary journey from clicSAND 1.0 to 3.0, emphasising a commitment to continuous improvement and user-centric adaptation, thereby enhancing its utility and relevance. The inclusion of a South African case study, conducted during the EMP-A (Energy Modelling Platform for Africa) 2021 international capacity-building event, showcases clicSAND’s efficacy in facilitating knowledge transfer and skill development among inexperienced users, while providing a tangible example of its application in addressing specific regional energy challenges and policy contexts. Finally, current applications and future extensions of the software are also presented.