Climate change and variability in Malawi have had a wide impact on rain-fed agricultural production. The recent climatic events suggest new trends in agro-climatic parameters such as dry spell length, total annual rainfall, and planting dates. However, there is dearth of understand the emerging trends on the agro-climatic parameters in Malawi. Both parametric and non-parametric trend tests were used to quantify the strength of trends on a 49-year series of historical rainfall data from eight meteorological stations across Malawi. The results show that, while there is no change in dry spell length across the country, there is an increase in the number of dry spells and a decrease in the number of rainy days per growing season. Thus, there is a slight decrease in total annual rainfall with high variability. Suitable planting dates have also shifted towards later days in the season, resulting in a shorter growing season accompanied by high- intensity rainfall. This study indicates significant changes in the rainfall pattern in Malawi in specific areas, especially in the north. Therefore, it is imperative to consider early maturing varieties, in-field water harvesting structures, efficient irrigation systems, and extension services to farmers to adapt change of agricultural calendar.

Droughts are caused either by a deficiency in precipitation compared to normal levels or by excessive evapotranspiration exceeding long-term averages. Therefore, assessing future drought prevalence based on projected climatic variables is essential for effective drought preparedness. In this study, an ensemble of three Regional Climate Models (REMO2009, RCA4, and CCLM4-8-17) was used for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), covering two future time periods (2025–2069 and 2070–2100). The quantile distribution mapping technique was employed to bias-correct the RCMs. The ensemble of RCMs projected an increase in rainfall, ranging from 40% to 85% under both RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5. Both RCPs indicated an increase in daily average temperatures. RCP 4.5 projects an increase in average daily temperature by 1% between 2025 and 2069 and 6.5% between 2070 and 2100, while under RCP 8.5, temperatures are expected to rise by 3.7% between 2025 and 2069 and 12.7% between 2070 and 2100. The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to translate these projected climatic anomalies into future drought prevalence. The results suggest that RCP 4.5 forecasts an 8% increase in drought prevalence, while RCP 8.5 projects an 11% increase in drought frequency, with a greater rise in moderate and severe droughts and a decrease in extreme drought occurrences.

Climate change and variability in Malawi have had a wide impact on rain-fed agricultural production. The recent climatic events suggest new trends in agro-climatic parameters such as dry spell length, total annual rainfall, and planting dates. However, there is dearth of understand the emerging trends on the agro-climatic parameters in Malawi. Both parametric and non-parametric trend tests were used to quantify the strength of trends on a 49-year series of historical rainfall data from eight meteorological stations across Malawi. The results show that, while there is no change in dry spell length across the country, there is an increase in the number of dry spells and a decrease in the number of rainy days per growing season. Thus, there is a slight decrease in total annual rainfall with high variability. Suitable planting dates have also shifted towards later days in the season, resulting in a shorter growing season accompanied by high- intensity rainfall. This study indicates significant changes in the rainfall pattern in Malawi in specific areas, especially in the north. Therefore, it is imperative to consider early maturing varieties, in-field water harvesting structures, efficient irrigation systems, and extension services to farmers to adapt change of agricultural calendar.