This paper examines the impact of special tariffs between China and the United States (US) on their indirect trade partners via spillover effects. We applied a Value-Added Real Effective Exchange Rate (VA-REER) index to simulate how an increase in tariffs induces changes in demand for goods from Indonesia and selected Asian partners. We used the Input–Output Database (WIOD) to simulate the spillover effects across partners via the Global Value Chain (GVC) using data from 2000 to 2014. The results suggest that demand is doubly more responsive to prices (tariffs) when value-added (VA-REER) index is used instead of the conventional REER index (gross trade). We found that US tariffs on Chinese goods have a negative spillover impact on Indonesia’s exports. Meanwhile, the Chinese tariffs on American goods lead to small increased demand for Indonesian exports. We also found that US and China become equally crucial for Indonesia under the Value-Added REER scheme, concluding that the conventional REER approach may have underestimated the impact of US tariffs on Chinese goods. Finally, we found that Indonesia would be at risk to trade shocks if the US applies tariffs on China, Asian partners (Japan and South Korea), and the European Union (EU).

This paper investigates the inflation convergence of 82 Indonesian cities and discusses the remarkable regional inflation programmes in Indonesia. By employing a dynamic panel regression, the paper shows that Indonesia experienced an inflation convergence from 2013 to 2018. An intriguing finding is that the cities in Java-Bali, the largest density area, experienced a slower speed of convergence than that in cities outside the Java-Bali. This paper alleges that the development of logistic transportation and the formulation of an inflation control programme, such as the Tim Pengendalian Inflasi Daerah (TPID) or Regional Inflation Controlling Team (RICT) that has just been stationed and has commenced their duties in East Indonesia, might play an essential role in the convergence. Moreover, the coordination between the central and regional governments, represented by TPID/RICT, in implementing the effective policy (i.e. prioritising development outside Java-Bali and fostering inter-region cooperation in the commodity supply chain) is effective in stabilising and reducing the inflation rate.

This article aims to analyze the interaction between financial deepening and economic growth in Indonesia. In this case, it also indirectly analyzes the interaction between the research control variables, namely the interbank money market interest rate and the exchange rate with economic growth in Indonesia. The journal uses secondary data, including taking from the official website of the Central Bureau of Statistics and Bank Indonesia, which is the website of the Republic of Indonesia government. This journal uses an analysis of the interaction between variables in the period 2010-2019. The method used is the VECM method, a method used to explore financing and exchange rates which have a significant negative interaction with economic growth in Indonesia. And the interbank money market interest rate has a significant negative interaction with economic growth in Indonesia. In addition, the financial interior also has directional interactions with the government in Indonesia so that it can be said to follow bidirectional causality.Keywords: Financial Deepening, Economic Growth, VRCM, and bidirectional causality JEL : G320, C320