This paper introduces model uncertainty into the empirical study of the determinants of terrorism at country level. This is done by adopting a Bayesian model averaging approach and accounting for the over-dispersed count data nature of terrorist attacks. Both a broad measure of terrorism and incidents per capita have been analyzed. Our results suggest that, among the set of regressors considered, those reflecting labor market conditions and economic prospects tend to receive high posterior inclusion probabilities. These findings are robust to changes in the model specification and sample composition and are not meaningfully affected by the generalized linear regression model applied. Evidence of a geographically heterogeneous relationship between terrorism and its determinants is also provided. Abbreviation: BMA- Bayesian Model Averaging; GLM- Generalized Linear Models

This paper studies the persistence of the effects of terrorist attacks on the urban structure at the regional level. With this aim, a dynamic differences-in-differences approach is applied to all the municipalities of the Basque Country and Navarre autonomous communities in Spain during the period 1986–2014. The results show that terrorism had a negative and transitory effect on population growth. We also find that incidents with deaths implied more adverse shocks. Terrorist attacks had more significant effects in bigger municipalities and in the provinces with a stronger ideological polarization. Finally, we provide evidence of demographic spatial effects derived from violence.

This paper analyses the persistence of the shock caused by the American Civil War on the relative city size distribution of the USA. Two features make the study of this conflict interesting. First, it took place at an earlier stage of the industrialisation and urbanisation processes than those previously analysed in the related literature. Second, the battles were fought in the open field, not in urban areas. In line with previous results for the Second World War in Japanese and German cities, our findings suggest that the effects of the shock were transitory. Furthermore, some evidence regarding the possible presence of a ‘safe harbour effect’ is reported.