Theoretical and experimental studies from psychological and behavioral sciences show that heuristics and social networks play an important role in decision-making under risk. The goal of this paper is to investigate the effects of empirical social networks and different behavioral rules on farmers’ irrigation adoption under drought risk and its impacts on several macroeconomic indicators such as the rate of adaptation, water demand and regional agricultural income. We present an application of a spatial economic ABM which is able to simulate the effect of droughts on crop production, farm income and farm decision-making. The agents’ population is parameterized using survey data, including data on social networks. Four experiments are conducted combining two climate scenarios with two behavioral scenarios (maximizers vs. heuristic-based agents). The results show that the adoption process follows a different path in the scenario with heuristic-based farmers. The adoption of irrigation is slower in the short run due to reliance on information from social networks and farmers’ uncertainty regarding drought events. This results in agricultural income loss and a lower water demand in the short run compared to the scenario with maximizing agents.
1 January 2017 in Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation
Using psychological theory in agent formalisations is relevant to capture behavioural phenomena in simulation models (Enhance Realism Of Simulation-EROS). Whereas the potential contribution of psychological theory is important, also a number of challenges and problems in doing so are discussed. Next examples of implementations of psychological theory are being presented, ranging from simple implementations (KISS) of rather isolated theories to extended models that integrate different theoretical perspectives. The role of social simulation in developing dynamic psychological theory and integrated social psychological modelling is discussed. We conclude with some fundamental limitations and challenges concerning the modelling of human needs, cognition and behaviour.
11 February 2011 in Journal of Product Innovation Management
This article introduces the methodology of agent-based modelling (ABM), explains how it contributes to understanding the dynamics of climate-relevant behaviour and discusses the challenges to implementing behavioural theory in ABMs. Next, an overview will be given on recent advances in environmentally relevant ABMs. The conclusions address the future of the ABM tool in the context of environmentally relevant behaviour in research and education.