As a major coal-producing area, the Shanxi section of the Yellow River Basin has been significantly affected by coal mining activities in the local ecological environment. Therefore, an in-depth study of the ecological evolution in this region holds great scientific significance and practical value. In this study, the Shanxi section of the Yellow River Basin, including its planned coal mining area, was selected as the research subject. An improved remotely sensed ecological index model (NRSEI) integrating the remotely sensed ecological index (RSEI) and net primary productivity (NPP) of vegetation was constructed utilizing the Google Earth Engine platform. The NRSEI time series data from 2003 to 2022 were calculated, and the Sen + Mann–Kendall analysis method was employed to comprehensively assess the ecological environment quality and its evolutionary trends in the study area. The findings in this paper indicate the following data: (1) The contribution of the first principal component of the NRSEI model is more than 70%, and the average correlation coefficient is higher than 0.79. The model effectively integrates the information of multiple ecological indicators and enhances the applicability of regional ecological environment evaluation. (2) Between 2003 and 2022, the ecological environment quality in the Shanxi section of the Yellow River Basin showed an overall upward trend, with the average NRSEI value experiencing phases of fluctuation, increase, decline, and stabilization. The NRSEI values in non-coal mining areas consistently remained higher than those in coal mining areas. (3) Over 60% of the areas have improved ecological conditions, especially in coal mining areas. (4) The impact of coal mining on the ecological environment is significant within a 6 km radius, while the effects gradually diminish in the 6 to 10 km range. This study not only offers a reliable methodology for evaluating ecological environment quality on a large scale and over a long time series but also holds significant guiding value for the ecological restoration and sustainable development of the Shanxi section of the Yellow River Basin and its coal mining area.

To attain precise forecasts of surface displacements and deformations in goaf areas (a void or cavity that remains underground after the extraction of mineral resources) following coal extraction, this study based on the limitations of individual time function models, conducted a thorough analysis of how the parameters of the model impact subsidence curves. Parameter estimation was conducted using the trust-region reflective algorithm (TRF), and the time function models were identified. Then we utilized a combined model approach and introduced the sliding window mechanism to assign variable weights to the model. Based on this, the combined model was used for prediction, followed by the application of this composite prediction to engineering scenarios for the dynamic forecasting of surface movements and deformations. The results indicated that, in comparison with DE, GA, PSO algorithms, the TRF exhibited superior stability and convergence. The parameter models obtained using this method demonstrated a higher level of predictive accuracy. Moreover, the predictive precision of the variable-weight time function combined model surpassed that of corresponding individual time function models. When employing six different variable-weight combination prediction models for point C22, the Weibull-MMF model demonstrated the most favorable fitting performance, featuring a root mean square error (RMSE) of 32.98 mm, a mean absolute error (MAE) of 25.66 mm, a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 7.67%; the correlation coefficient R² reached 0.99937. These metrics consistently outperformed their respective individual time function models. Additionally, in the validation process of the combined model at point C16, the residuals were notably smaller than those of individual models. This reaffirmed the accuracy and reliability of the proposed variable-weight combined model. Given that the variable-weight combination model was an evolution from individual time function models, its applicability extends to a broader range, offering valuable guidance for the dynamic prediction of surface movement and deformation in mining areas.