Spawning grounds may shift due to climate change and subsequent variations in the marine environment, but few studies have aimed to project shifts in the spawning grounds of chub mackerel driven by climate change. We projected the effects of climate change on the spawning grounds of chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) by developing and applying a suitable spawning ground index based on a regional ocean circulation model for the western North Pacific. Our model indicated that the potential spawning grounds of chub mackerel extended from southern waters of the East China Sea to the Korea Strait, Yellow Sea, and Japan/East Sea. Despite some uncertainty, our model based on climate change scenarios projected that, by the 2050s, spawning grounds will shift northward due to warming of the ocean surface, resulting in a subsequent westward shift of nursery grounds from the Japan/East Sea to the Korea Strait and Yellow Sea. Our projections will contribute to clarifying the impacts of climate change on the distribution of exploitable chub mackerel, the adaptation of fisheries to climate change, and the reliability of stock assessments used for fisheries management in the region.