The concept of vulnerability to spruce budworm refers to the probability of tree mortality resulting from a given level of budworm attack. This paper reviews and analyses available information from the literature on stand vulnerability and timing of mortality during several budworm outbreaks. Timing of mortality during outbreaks appears to be fairly straightforward when considered in a general sense, with trees usually starting to die after four or five years of severe defoliation. Prediction of the total expected mortality in a given stand is more difficult, however, and attempts to relate mortality to stand characteristics have not shown strong relationships. Nevertheless, the data analysed suggest that for approximation purposes in a management sense, we can probably treat mortality during uncontrolled budworm outbreaks as a host-density dependent process. This is particularly so for fir in mature stands, where mortality approaches 100%, while fir in immature stands and spruce show lower, more variable mortality rates.

Changing stand composition by increasing hardwood content has been suggested as a long-term method for reducing susceptibility and vulnerability of balsam fir (Abiesbalsamea (L.) Mill.) to spruce budworm (Choristoneurafumiferana (Clem.)). Twenty-five mixed balsam fir–hardwood stands were selected in northern New Brunswick, with five stands in each 20% hardwood class (0–20, 21–40%, etc.). Defoliation each year from 1989 to 1993 was significantly (p < 0.0001) related to hardwood content, with r² ranging from 0.57 to 0.81. As hardwood content increased, defoliation of balsam fir decreased. From 1989 to 1992, the years of moderate to severe defoliation, balsam fir stands with 80% hardwood. A generalized model combining hardwood content and the estimated defoliation in pure softwood stands in a given year explained 77% of the variation in defoliation over stands and years. This study indicated that mixed balsam fir–hardwood stand management, with hardwood content >40%, could substantially reduce losses during spruce budworm outbreaks. Further research is warranted to elucidate the mechanism involved, but our working hypothesis is that greater hardwood content increased the diversity or populations of natural enemies such as birds and parasitoids.

Effects of spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.)) outbreaks on the productivity and stability of forests in eastern Canada are reviewed and discussed. Defoliation results in reduced growth of trees, widespread tree mortality, and loss of wood production, and thereby causes major forest management problems. At present, the only feasible method for limiting damage and losses from budworm outbreaks over large areas is to apply chemical or biological insecticides periodically to kill larvae and protect the forest from defoliation and tree mortality. Although budworm outbreaks definitely disrupt the wood-producing capacity of forests (or the short-term "stability of forests for human usage"), in terms of overall ecological stability, outbreaks apparently act as a cycling mechanism that allows advance fir-spruce regeneration to succeed the fir-spruce overstory.

Tree mortality caused by spruce budworm (Choristoneurafumiferana (Clem.)) defoliation was assessed annually from 1976 to 1985 in 20 mature balsam fir (Abiesbalsamea (L.) Mill.) stands on Cape Breton Island, Nova Scotia, and was related to defoliation and to tree, stand, and site characteristics. Ten to 12 years after the start of the budworm outbreak, fir mortality averaged 87% of the merchantable volume (range 60–100%) among the stands. Timing of mortality was similar to that found in studies of previous outbreaks. In the first 4 years of the outbreak, virtually all the trees that died had more than 90% cumulative defoliation but, overall, 64, 21, and 14% of the dead trees had cumulative defoliation >90, 76 to 90, and 51 to 75%, respectively. Early in the outbreak, fir mortality was generally negatively correlated with tree vigor, relative crown position, or diameter at breast height, but in later years, trees were killed irrespective of these factors. Fir mortality was evenly distributed among different sized trees, and 73 to 86% of the trees in each 5 cm diameter at breast height class died. A linear regression equation between dead fir volume and total fir volume explained 89% of the variability in mortality among stands. Percent fir mortality was correlated (r = 0.84) with visual estimates of cumulative defoliation (including all age-classes of foliage) in 1981, but mortality was not correlated with cumulative current annual defoliation or with site characteristics. Using regression equations, fir mortality during this budworm outbreak was predicted to within ±6 m²/ha in 14 of 18 (78%) of the stands, with a relative accuracy of 17.7%.