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The resilience of an energy system and especially the national electricity supply is a complex and multidimensional concept, which is receiving growing attention at a European level. In particular, the increasing risks of extended electricity supply disruptions and/or severe electricity price fluctuations are stressing the need for an assessment of the European countries’ electricity supply resilience. This paper proposes an elaborative multicriteria decision support methodological framework, based on three major resilience dimensions, namely: “resist”, “restabilise” and “recover”. In total, 35 European countries are evaluated and ranked according to their performance on 17 interacting evaluation criteria. The overall evaluation of the countries is established based on a synergy of two complementary multicriteria decision aid (MCDA) methods. Specifically, the Choquet Integral is approached and assessed as an importance indicator to properly accommodate and incorporate the interacting criteria into the value system, negating therefore their arbitrary effects on the final benchmarking. Simultaneously, a procedure based on the Simos method supports the robust elicitation of the Choquet capacities. All preferential information required for the implementation of the MCDA framework has been elicited from an expert, highly knowledgeable of the European energy system. This research work aims to support energy policymakers in Europe and provide guidelines and areas for improvement at a country level.
Eleftherios Siskos; Peter Burgherr. Multicriteria Decision Support for the Evaluation of Electricity Supply Resilience: Exploration of Interacting Criteria. European Journal of Operational Research 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleEleftherios Siskos, Peter Burgherr. Multicriteria Decision Support for the Evaluation of Electricity Supply Resilience: Exploration of Interacting Criteria. European Journal of Operational Research. 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleEleftherios Siskos; Peter Burgherr. 2021. "Multicriteria Decision Support for the Evaluation of Electricity Supply Resilience: Exploration of Interacting Criteria." European Journal of Operational Research , no. : 1.
Uncertainties in instantaneous dam-break floods are difficult to assess with standard methods (e.g., Monte Carlo simulation) because of the lack of historical observations and high computational costs of the numerical models. In this study, polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) was applied to a dam-break flood model reflecting the population of large concrete dams in Switzerland. The flood model was approximated with a metamodel and uncertainty in the inputs was propagated to the flow quantities downstream of the dam. The study demonstrates that the application of metamodeling for uncertainty quantification in dam-break studies allows for reduced computational costs compared to standard methods. Finally, Sobol’ sensitivity indices indicate that reservoir volume, length of the valley, and surface roughness contributed most to the variability of the outputs. The proposed methodology, when applied to similar studies in flood risk assessment, allows for more generalized risk quantification than conventional approaches.
Anna Kalinina; Matteo Spada; David Vetsch; Stefano Marelli; Calvin Whealton; Peter Burgherr; Bruno Sudret. Metamodeling for Uncertainty Quantification of a Flood Wave Model for Concrete Dam Breaks. Energies 2020, 13, 3685 .
AMA StyleAnna Kalinina, Matteo Spada, David Vetsch, Stefano Marelli, Calvin Whealton, Peter Burgherr, Bruno Sudret. Metamodeling for Uncertainty Quantification of a Flood Wave Model for Concrete Dam Breaks. Energies. 2020; 13 (14):3685.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAnna Kalinina; Matteo Spada; David Vetsch; Stefano Marelli; Calvin Whealton; Peter Burgherr; Bruno Sudret. 2020. "Metamodeling for Uncertainty Quantification of a Flood Wave Model for Concrete Dam Breaks." Energies 13, no. 14: 3685.
A web-based software, called MCDA Index Tool (https://www.mcdaindex.net/), is presented in this paper. It allows developing indices and ranking alternatives, based on multiple combinations of normalization methods and aggregation functions. Given the steadily increasing importance of accounting for multiple preferences of the decision-makers and assessing the robustness of the decision recommendations, this tool is a timely instrument that can be used primarily by non-multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) experts to dynamically shape and evaluate their indices. The MCDA Index Tool allows the user to (i) input a dataset directly from spreadsheets with alternatives and indicators performance, (ii) build multiple indices by choosing several normalization methods and aggregation functions, and (iii) visualize and compare the indices’ scores and rankings to assess the robustness of the results. A novel perspective on uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of preference models offers operational solutions to assess the influence of different strategies to develop indices and visualize their results. A case study for the assessment of the energy security and sustainability implications of different global energy scenarios is used to illustrate the application of the MCDA Index Tool. Analysts have now access to an index development tool that supports constructive and dynamic evaluation of the stability of rankings driven by a single score while including multiple decision-makers’ and stakeholders’ preferences.
Marco Cinelli; Matteo Spada; Wansub Kim; Yiwen Zhang; Peter Burgherr. MCDA Index Tool: an interactive software to develop indices and rankings. Environment Systems and Decisions 2020, 41, 82 -109.
AMA StyleMarco Cinelli, Matteo Spada, Wansub Kim, Yiwen Zhang, Peter Burgherr. MCDA Index Tool: an interactive software to develop indices and rankings. Environment Systems and Decisions. 2020; 41 (1):82-109.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMarco Cinelli; Matteo Spada; Wansub Kim; Yiwen Zhang; Peter Burgherr. 2020. "MCDA Index Tool: an interactive software to develop indices and rankings." Environment Systems and Decisions 41, no. 1: 82-109.
This study presents probabilistic analysis of dam accidents worldwide in the period 1911–2016. The accidents are classified by the dam purpose and by the country cluster, where they occurred, distinguishing between the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and nonmember countries (non‐OECD without China). A Bayesian hierarchical approach is used to model distributions of frequency and severity for accidents. This approach treats accident data as a multilevel system with subsets sharing specific characteristics. To model accident probabilities for a particular dam characteristic, this approach samples data from the entire data set, borrowing the strength across data set and enabling to model distributions even for subsets with scarce data. The modelled frequencies and severities are combined in frequency‐consequence curves, showing that accidents for all dam purposes are more frequent in non‐OECD (without China) and their maximum consequences are larger than in OECD countries. Multipurpose dams also have higher frequencies and maximum consequences than single‐purpose dams. In addition, the developed methodology explicitly models time dependence to identify trends in accident frequencies over the analyzed period. Downward trends are found for almost all dam purposes confirming that technological development and implementation of safety measures are likely to have a positive impact on dam safety. The results of the analysis provide insights for dam risk management and decision‐making processes by identifying key risk factors related to country groups and dam purposes as well as changes over time.
Anna Kalinina; Matteo Spada; Peter Burgherr. Probabilistic Analysis of Dam Accidents Worldwide: Risk Assessment for Dams of Different Purposes in OECD and Non‐OECD Countries with Focus on Time Trend Analysis. Risk Analysis 2020, 40, 1723 -1743.
AMA StyleAnna Kalinina, Matteo Spada, Peter Burgherr. Probabilistic Analysis of Dam Accidents Worldwide: Risk Assessment for Dams of Different Purposes in OECD and Non‐OECD Countries with Focus on Time Trend Analysis. Risk Analysis. 2020; 40 (9):1723-1743.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAnna Kalinina; Matteo Spada; Peter Burgherr. 2020. "Probabilistic Analysis of Dam Accidents Worldwide: Risk Assessment for Dams of Different Purposes in OECD and Non‐OECD Countries with Focus on Time Trend Analysis." Risk Analysis 40, no. 9: 1723-1743.
The interest in studying energy systems’ resilience is increasing due to a rising awareness of the importance of having a secure energy supply. This growing trend is a result of a series of recent disruptions, among others also affecting electricity systems. Therefore, it is of crucial importance for policymakers to determine whether their country has a resilient electricity supply. Starting from a set of 12 indicators, this paper uses data envelopment analysis (DEA) to comprehensively evaluate the electricity supply resilience of 140 countries worldwide. Two DEA models are applied: (1) the original ratio-based Charnes, Cooper, and Rhodes (CCR) model and (2) a novel hybrid framework for robust efficiency analysis incorporating linear programming and Monte Carlo simulations. Results show that the CCR model deems 31 countries as efficient and hence lacks the capability to differentiate them. Furthermore, the CCR model considers only the best weight vectors for each country, which are not necessarily representative of the overall performance of the countries. The robustness analysis explores these limitations and identifies South Korea, Singapore and Canada as the most resilient countries. Finally, country analyses are conducted, where Singapore’s and Japan’s performances and improvement potentials are discussed.
Patrick Gasser; Marco Cinelli; Anna Labijak; Matteo Spada; Peter Burgherr; Miłosz Kadziński; Božidar Stojadinović. Quantifying Electricity Supply Resilience of Countries with Robust Efficiency Analysis. Energies 2020, 13, 1535 .
AMA StylePatrick Gasser, Marco Cinelli, Anna Labijak, Matteo Spada, Peter Burgherr, Miłosz Kadziński, Božidar Stojadinović. Quantifying Electricity Supply Resilience of Countries with Robust Efficiency Analysis. Energies. 2020; 13 (7):1535.
Chicago/Turabian StylePatrick Gasser; Marco Cinelli; Anna Labijak; Matteo Spada; Peter Burgherr; Miłosz Kadziński; Božidar Stojadinović. 2020. "Quantifying Electricity Supply Resilience of Countries with Robust Efficiency Analysis." Energies 13, no. 7: 1535.
La fermeture des centrales nucléaires et le développement de l’énergie solaire et éolienne rendent la production d’électricité plus volatile. De nouveaux systèmes de stockage sont nécessaires pour s’assurer que l’électricité est disponible au moment où elle est nécessaire. Le stockage adiabatique d’air comprimé représente une technologie prometteuse. Il utilise l’excédent de production des installations solaires et éoliennes pour comprimer l’air ambiant et le stocker dans une cavité souterraine. Au besoin, l’air comprimé est à nouveau détendu et entraîne alors une turbine qui produit de l’électricité. En tirant profit de la chaleur générée lors de la compression, cette technologie atteint un rendement de 65 à 75 %, ce qui est semblable à celui obtenu avec l’accumulation par pompage. En termes de potentiel d’émission de gaz à effet de serre et de dommages aux écosystèmes, la compatibilité environnementale des réservoirs d’air comprimé est également comparable à celle des systèmes à accumulation par pompage. Les réservoirs d’air comprimé sont techniquement réalisables. Les composants importants, comme les turbomachines et les accumulateurs thermiques, sont déjà disponibles sur le marché ou ont été testés dans une installation pilote. La construction de cavités bénéficie de l’expérience acquise lors de la réalisation de tunnels et de cavernes. Les réservoirs adiabatiques d’air comprimé constituent par conséquent une solution de stockage efficace, écologique et techniquement réalisable. En raison de leurs coûts d’investissement élevés et du manque de clarté qui entoure leur cadre économique et juridique, leur rentabilité demeure toutefois incertaine. Cela complique également le financement d’une installation de démonstration.
Andreas Haselbacher; Michel Arnal; Maurizio Barbato; Alexander Fuchs; Jared Garrison; Turhan Demiray; Philipp Jenny; Martin Scholtysik; Emmanuel Jacquemoud; Sophia Haussener; Christopher Mutel; Christian Bauer; Peter Burgherr; Warren Schenler; Franz Pacher; Felix Amberg; Giw Zanganeh. Synthèse conjointe «Stockage d’électricité par compression adiabatique d’air» du PNR «Energie». Synthèse conjointe «Stockage d’électricité par compression adiabatique d’air» du PNR «Energie» 2020, 1 .
AMA StyleAndreas Haselbacher, Michel Arnal, Maurizio Barbato, Alexander Fuchs, Jared Garrison, Turhan Demiray, Philipp Jenny, Martin Scholtysik, Emmanuel Jacquemoud, Sophia Haussener, Christopher Mutel, Christian Bauer, Peter Burgherr, Warren Schenler, Franz Pacher, Felix Amberg, Giw Zanganeh. Synthèse conjointe «Stockage d’électricité par compression adiabatique d’air» du PNR «Energie». Synthèse conjointe «Stockage d’électricité par compression adiabatique d’air» du PNR «Energie». 2020; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAndreas Haselbacher; Michel Arnal; Maurizio Barbato; Alexander Fuchs; Jared Garrison; Turhan Demiray; Philipp Jenny; Martin Scholtysik; Emmanuel Jacquemoud; Sophia Haussener; Christopher Mutel; Christian Bauer; Peter Burgherr; Warren Schenler; Franz Pacher; Felix Amberg; Giw Zanganeh. 2020. "Synthèse conjointe «Stockage d’électricité par compression adiabatique d’air» du PNR «Energie»." Synthèse conjointe «Stockage d’électricité par compression adiabatique d’air» du PNR «Energie» , no. : 1.
La fermeture des centrales nucléaires et le développement de l’énergie solaire et éolienne rendent la production d’électricité plus volatile. De nouveaux systèmes de stockage sont nécessaires pour s’assurer que l’électricité est disponible au moment où elle est nécessaire. Le stockage adiabatique d’air comprimé représente une technologie prometteuse. Il utilise l’excédent de production des installations solaires et éoliennes pour comprimer l’air ambiant et le stocker dans une cavité souterraine. Au besoin, l’air comprimé est à nouveau détendu et entraîne alors une turbine qui produit de l’électricité. En tirant profit de la chaleur générée lors de la compression, cette technologie atteint un rendement de 65 à 75 %, ce qui est semblable à celui obtenu avec l’accumulation par pompage. En termes de potentiel d’émission de gaz à effet de serre et de dommages aux écosystèmes, la compatibilité environnementale des réservoirs d’air comprimé est également comparable à celle des systèmes à accumulation par pompage. Les réservoirs d’air comprimé sont techniquement réalisables. Les composants importants, comme les turbomachines et les accumulateurs thermiques, sont déjà disponibles sur le marché ou ont été testés dans une installation pilote. La construction de cavités bénéficie de l’expérience acquise lors de la réalisation de tunnels et de cavernes. Les réservoirs adiabatiques d’air comprimé constituent par conséquent une solution de stockage efficace, écologique et techniquement réalisable. En raison de leurs coûts d’investissement élevés et du manque de clarté qui entoure leur cadre économique et juridique, leur rentabilité demeure toutefois incertaine. Cela complique également le financement d’une installation de démonstration.
Andreas Haselbacher; Michel Arnal; Maurizio Barbato; Alexander Fuchs; Jared Garrison; Turhan Demiray; Philipp Jenny; Martin Scholtysik; Emmanuel Jacquemoud; Sophia Haussener; Christopher Mutel; Christian Bauer; Peter Burgherr; Warren Schenler; Franz Pacher; Felix Amberg; Giw Zanganeh. Joint synthesis “Electricity storage via adiabatic air compression” of the NRP “Energy”. Joint synthesis “Electricity storage via adiabatic air compression” of the NRP “Energy” 2020, 1 .
AMA StyleAndreas Haselbacher, Michel Arnal, Maurizio Barbato, Alexander Fuchs, Jared Garrison, Turhan Demiray, Philipp Jenny, Martin Scholtysik, Emmanuel Jacquemoud, Sophia Haussener, Christopher Mutel, Christian Bauer, Peter Burgherr, Warren Schenler, Franz Pacher, Felix Amberg, Giw Zanganeh. Joint synthesis “Electricity storage via adiabatic air compression” of the NRP “Energy”. Joint synthesis “Electricity storage via adiabatic air compression” of the NRP “Energy”. 2020; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAndreas Haselbacher; Michel Arnal; Maurizio Barbato; Alexander Fuchs; Jared Garrison; Turhan Demiray; Philipp Jenny; Martin Scholtysik; Emmanuel Jacquemoud; Sophia Haussener; Christopher Mutel; Christian Bauer; Peter Burgherr; Warren Schenler; Franz Pacher; Felix Amberg; Giw Zanganeh. 2020. "Joint synthesis “Electricity storage via adiabatic air compression” of the NRP “Energy”." Joint synthesis “Electricity storage via adiabatic air compression” of the NRP “Energy” , no. : 1.
The accident risk of severe (≥5 fatalities) accidents in fossil energy chains (Coal, Oil and Natural Gas) is analyzed. The full chain risk is assessed for Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 28 Member States of the European Union (EU28) and non-OECD countries. Furthermore, for Coal, Chinese data are analysed separately for three different periods, i.e., 1994–1999, 2000–2008 and 2009–2016, due to different data sources, and highly incomplete data prior to 1994. A Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is applied to investigate the risk and associated uncertainties of a comprehensive accident data set from the Paul Scherrer Institute’s ENergy-related Severe Accident Database (ENSAD). By means of BMA, frequency and severity distributions were established, and a final posterior distribution including model uncertainty is constructed by a weighted combination of the different models. The proposed approach, by dealing with lack of data and lack of knowledge, allows for a general reduction of the uncertainty in the calculated risk indicators, which is beneficial for informed decision-making strategies under uncertainty.
Matteo Spada; Peter Burgherr. Comparative Risk Assessment for Fossil Energy Chains Using Bayesian Model Averaging †. Energies 2020, 13, 295 .
AMA StyleMatteo Spada, Peter Burgherr. Comparative Risk Assessment for Fossil Energy Chains Using Bayesian Model Averaging †. Energies. 2020; 13 (2):295.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMatteo Spada; Peter Burgherr. 2020. "Comparative Risk Assessment for Fossil Energy Chains Using Bayesian Model Averaging †." Energies 13, no. 2: 295.
Der Verzicht auf Kernkraftwerke und der Ausbau von Solar- und Windenergie führen dazu, dass die Stromproduktion volatiler wird. Damit Strom dann zur Verfügung steht, wenn er gebraucht wird, braucht es neue Speichersysteme. Eine vielversprechende Technologie ist die adiabatische Druckluftspeicherung. Sie nutzt überschüssigen Strom aus Solar- und Windanlagen, um Umgebungsluft zu komprimieren und diese in einem unterirdischen Hohlraum zu speichern. Bei Bedarf wird die komprimierte Luft wieder expandiert; sie treibt dabei eine Turbine an und erzeugt wieder Strom. Da die bei der Komprimierung entstandene Wärme genutzt wird, beträgt die Effizienz 65 bis 75 Prozent; das ist ein ähnlicher Wert wie jener, den Pumpspeicher erreichen. Auch die Umweltverträglichkeit von Druckluftspeichern ist, gemessen am Treibhausgaspotenzial und an Schäden an Ökosystemen, vergleichbar mit jener von Pumpspeichern. Druckluftspeicher sind technisch machbar. Wichtige Komponenten wie Turbomaschinen und Wärmespeicher sind entweder bereits auf dem Markt erhältlich oder wurden in einer Pilotanlage erprobt. Der Bau von Hohlräumen ist zudem durch die Erfahrungen im Tunnel- und Kavernenbau ausgereift. Adiabatische Druckluftspeicher sind also eine effiziente, umweltverträgliche und technisch machbare Speicherlösung. Wegen der hohen Kapitalkosten sowie der unklaren wirtschaftlichen und rechtlichen Rahmenbedingungen ist allerdings ungewiss, ob sie wirtschaftlich sein können. Dies erschwert auch die Finanzierung einer Demonstrationsanlage.
Andreas Haselbacher; Michel Arnal; Maurizio Barbato; Alexander Fuchs; Jared Garrison; Turhan Demiray; Philipp Jenny; Martin Scholtysik; Emmanuel Jacquemoud; Sophia Haussener; Christopher Mutel; Christian Bauer; Peter Burgherr; Warren Schenler; Franz Pacher; Felix Amberg; Giw Zanganeh. Verbundsynthese «Stromspeicherung über adiabatische Druckluftspeicherung» des NFP «Energie». Verbundsynthese «Stromspeicherung über adiabatische Druckluftspeicherung» des NFP «Energie» 2020, 1 .
AMA StyleAndreas Haselbacher, Michel Arnal, Maurizio Barbato, Alexander Fuchs, Jared Garrison, Turhan Demiray, Philipp Jenny, Martin Scholtysik, Emmanuel Jacquemoud, Sophia Haussener, Christopher Mutel, Christian Bauer, Peter Burgherr, Warren Schenler, Franz Pacher, Felix Amberg, Giw Zanganeh. Verbundsynthese «Stromspeicherung über adiabatische Druckluftspeicherung» des NFP «Energie». Verbundsynthese «Stromspeicherung über adiabatische Druckluftspeicherung» des NFP «Energie». 2020; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAndreas Haselbacher; Michel Arnal; Maurizio Barbato; Alexander Fuchs; Jared Garrison; Turhan Demiray; Philipp Jenny; Martin Scholtysik; Emmanuel Jacquemoud; Sophia Haussener; Christopher Mutel; Christian Bauer; Peter Burgherr; Warren Schenler; Franz Pacher; Felix Amberg; Giw Zanganeh. 2020. "Verbundsynthese «Stromspeicherung über adiabatische Druckluftspeicherung» des NFP «Energie»." Verbundsynthese «Stromspeicherung über adiabatische Druckluftspeicherung» des NFP «Energie» , no. : 1.
Natural gas covers more than 20% of Europe’s primary energy demand. A potential disruption could lead to supply shortages with severe consequences for the European economy and society. History shows that such a vast and complex network system is prone to exogenous and endogenous disruptions. A dedicated large-scale dataset of the European natural gas network from publicly available information sources is assembled first. The spatial coverage, completeness and resolution allows analyzing the behavior of this geospatial infrastructure network (including consumption) and its components under likely disruptive events, such as earthquakes, and/or technical failures. Using the developed system state simulation engine, the disruption impact is mapped. The results show that storage facilities cannot in all cases compensate for a pipeline disruption. Moreover, critical pipelines, such as the Transitgas pipeline crossing the Alps and the Trans-Mediterranean pipeline bringing natural gas from Northern Africa, are identified. To analyze the pipelines with high impact on the system performance, a detailed scenario analysis using a Monte Carlo simulation resulting in supply grade mapping is conducted and presented for the case of Italy. Overall, it can be concluded that locations with a dead-end, sole supply, and without storage facility nearby, are remarkably exposed to natural gas supply losses.
Peter Lustenberger; Felix Schumacher; Matteo Spada; Peter Burgherr; Bozidar Stojadinovic. Assessing the Performance of the European Natural Gas Network for Selected Supply Disruption Scenarios Using Open-Source Information. Energies 2019, 12, 4685 .
AMA StylePeter Lustenberger, Felix Schumacher, Matteo Spada, Peter Burgherr, Bozidar Stojadinovic. Assessing the Performance of the European Natural Gas Network for Selected Supply Disruption Scenarios Using Open-Source Information. Energies. 2019; 12 (24):4685.
Chicago/Turabian StylePeter Lustenberger; Felix Schumacher; Matteo Spada; Peter Burgherr; Bozidar Stojadinovic. 2019. "Assessing the Performance of the European Natural Gas Network for Selected Supply Disruption Scenarios Using Open-Source Information." Energies 12, no. 24: 4685.
The impacts of energy accidents are of primary interest for risk and resilience analysts, decision makers, and the general public. They can cause human health and environmental impacts, economic and societal losses, which justifies the interest in developing models to mitigate these adverse outcomes. We present a classification model for sorting energy accidents in the natural gas sector into hazard classes, according to their potential fatalities. The model is built on decision rules, which are knowledge blocks in the form of “if (condition), then (classification to hazard class x)”. They were extracted by the rough sets method using natural gas accident data from 1970–2016 of the Energy-related Severe Accident Database (ENSAD) of the Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI), the most authoritative information source for accidents in the energy sector. This was the first attempt to explore the relationships between the descriptors of energy accidents and the consequence (fatalities). The model was applied to a set of hypothetical accidents to show how the decision-making process could be supported when there is an interest in knowing which class (i.e., low, medium, high) of fatalities an energy accident could cause. The successful use of this approach in the natural gas sector proves that it can be also adapted for other energy chains, such as oil and coal.
Marco Cinelli; Matteo Spada; Miłosz Kadziński; Grzegorz Miebs; Peter Burgherr. Advancing Hazard Assessment of Energy Accidents in the Natural Gas Sector with Rough Set Theory and Decision Rules. Energies 2019, 12, 4178 .
AMA StyleMarco Cinelli, Matteo Spada, Miłosz Kadziński, Grzegorz Miebs, Peter Burgherr. Advancing Hazard Assessment of Energy Accidents in the Natural Gas Sector with Rough Set Theory and Decision Rules. Energies. 2019; 12 (21):4178.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMarco Cinelli; Matteo Spada; Miłosz Kadziński; Grzegorz Miebs; Peter Burgherr. 2019. "Advancing Hazard Assessment of Energy Accidents in the Natural Gas Sector with Rough Set Theory and Decision Rules." Energies 12, no. 21: 4178.
Energy systems are regularly subject to major disruptions affecting economic activities, operation of infrastructure and the society as a whole. Resilience assessment comprises the pre-event oriented classical risk assessment as a central element, but it goes beyond that because it also includes and evaluates post-event strategies to improve the functioning of the system during its future operation. First, an overview of resilience definitions used across various scientific disciplines is presented, followed by an in-depth analysis of resilience assessment and quantification for energy systems. The relevant literature is classified by approach and according to four key functions of resilience: resist, restabilize, rebuild, and reconfigure. Findings show that irrespective of the research field, a resilient system always operates with an aim to minimize the potential consequences resulting from a disruptive event and to efficiently recover from a potential system performance loss.
Patrick Gasser; Peter Lustenberger; Marco Cinelli; Wansub Kim; Matteo Spada; Peter Burgherr; Stefan Hirschberg; Božidar Stojadinovic; Tian Yin Sun. A review on resilience assessment of energy systems. Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure 2019, 1 -27.
AMA StylePatrick Gasser, Peter Lustenberger, Marco Cinelli, Wansub Kim, Matteo Spada, Peter Burgherr, Stefan Hirschberg, Božidar Stojadinovic, Tian Yin Sun. A review on resilience assessment of energy systems. Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure. 2019; ():1-27.
Chicago/Turabian StylePatrick Gasser; Peter Lustenberger; Marco Cinelli; Wansub Kim; Matteo Spada; Peter Burgherr; Stefan Hirschberg; Božidar Stojadinovic; Tian Yin Sun. 2019. "A review on resilience assessment of energy systems." Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure , no. : 1-27.
Peter Burgherr; Matteo Spada; Anna Kalinina; Laurent Vandepaer; Peter Lustenberger; Wansub Kim. Comparative Risk Assessment of Accidents in the Energy Sector within Different Long-Term Scenarios and Marginal Electricity Supply Mixes. Proceedings of the 29th European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL) 2019, 1 .
AMA StylePeter Burgherr, Matteo Spada, Anna Kalinina, Laurent Vandepaer, Peter Lustenberger, Wansub Kim. Comparative Risk Assessment of Accidents in the Energy Sector within Different Long-Term Scenarios and Marginal Electricity Supply Mixes. Proceedings of the 29th European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL). 2019; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StylePeter Burgherr; Matteo Spada; Anna Kalinina; Laurent Vandepaer; Peter Lustenberger; Wansub Kim. 2019. "Comparative Risk Assessment of Accidents in the Energy Sector within Different Long-Term Scenarios and Marginal Electricity Supply Mixes." Proceedings of the 29th European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL) , no. : 1.
Patrick Gasser; Marco Cinelli; Matteo Spada; Peter Burgherr; Božidar Stojadinović. Indices under the Spotlight: An Approach to Unveil and Manage the Implicit Trade-offs between Indicators. Proceedings of the 29th European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL) 2019, 1 .
AMA StylePatrick Gasser, Marco Cinelli, Matteo Spada, Peter Burgherr, Božidar Stojadinović. Indices under the Spotlight: An Approach to Unveil and Manage the Implicit Trade-offs between Indicators. Proceedings of the 29th European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL). 2019; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StylePatrick Gasser; Marco Cinelli; Matteo Spada; Peter Burgherr; Božidar Stojadinović. 2019. "Indices under the Spotlight: An Approach to Unveil and Manage the Implicit Trade-offs between Indicators." Proceedings of the 29th European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL) , no. : 1.
Matteo Spada; Peter Burgherr. A Hierarchical Approximate Bayesian Computation (HABC) for Accident Risk in the Energy Sector triggered by Natural Events. Proceedings of the 29th European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL) 2019, 1 .
AMA StyleMatteo Spada, Peter Burgherr. A Hierarchical Approximate Bayesian Computation (HABC) for Accident Risk in the Energy Sector triggered by Natural Events. Proceedings of the 29th European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL). 2019; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMatteo Spada; Peter Burgherr. 2019. "A Hierarchical Approximate Bayesian Computation (HABC) for Accident Risk in the Energy Sector triggered by Natural Events." Proceedings of the 29th European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL) , no. : 1.
Multiple power system equipment damage from strong geomagnetic disturbance (GMD) can significantly disrupt power grid operation. This has happened twice: in 1989, in North America, United Kingdom, and, in 2003, in Scandinavia, South Africa. Modern bulk high voltage power grids were designed more than 60 years ago for achieving more economic benefits in power transfer. In turn, high voltage, and especially the lately designed ultra high voltage grids, are more vulnerable to GMD. It is anticipated that the demand of detailed study of power grid's vulnerability to GMD will expand with broader awareness of the negative effects. The common approach requires the knowledge of the data on geophysical parameters of the study region, which is not accessible to the specialists without relevant background. In this paper, an alternative algorithm for preliminary evaluation of power grid's robustness to GMD is proposed. It takes into account various critical factors and provides a useful tool for stakeholders to identify potentially weak power grids and develop mitigation procedures beforehand. The advantage is that this algorithm can be used by specialists who do not have a comprehensive understanding of the GMD effect on power grid operation.
O. Sokolova; P. Burgherr; Yaroslav Sakharov; N. Korovkin. Algorithm for Analysis of Power Grid Vulnerability to Geomagnetic Disturbances. Space Weather 2018, 16, 1570 -1582.
AMA StyleO. Sokolova, P. Burgherr, Yaroslav Sakharov, N. Korovkin. Algorithm for Analysis of Power Grid Vulnerability to Geomagnetic Disturbances. Space Weather. 2018; 16 (10):1570-1582.
Chicago/Turabian StyleO. Sokolova; P. Burgherr; Yaroslav Sakharov; N. Korovkin. 2018. "Algorithm for Analysis of Power Grid Vulnerability to Geomagnetic Disturbances." Space Weather 16, no. 10: 1570-1582.
The Energy-related Severe Accident Database (ENSAD) is the most authoritative resource for comparative risk analysis of accidents in the energy sector. Although ENSAD contains comprehensive, worldwide data, it is a non-spatial database in Microsoft Access format. Therefore, spatial characteristics of the data cannot be fully utilised as well as analysed directly. Based on these premises, a new web-based version of ENSAD with GIS-capabilities – named ENSAD v2.0 – is designed and developed using state-of-the-art, open source technologies. The ENSAD v2.0 consists of two main components, i.e. a spatial database and a responsive web application. For the spatial database, the current accident data are georeferenced and migrated from Microsoft Access, using a tiered approach. The responsive web application can be accessed from desktops as well as mobile devices, and provides both a 2D and 3D mapping platform that is developed on cloud-based, serverless architecture. ENSAD v2.0 also allows assigning different user roles with specific access rights, and a public version with advanced visualisation capabilities has also been developed. Lastly, a case study was carried out using a spatial analysis to visualise the potential impact radius of a natural gas pipeline explosion and to assess its consequences in terms of economic damage and casualties.
Wansub Kim; Peter Burgherr; Matteo Spada; Peter Lustenberger; Anna Kalinina; Stefan Hirschberg. Energy-related Severe Accident Database (ENSAD): cloud-based geospatial platform. Big Earth Data 2018, 2, 368 -394.
AMA StyleWansub Kim, Peter Burgherr, Matteo Spada, Peter Lustenberger, Anna Kalinina, Stefan Hirschberg. Energy-related Severe Accident Database (ENSAD): cloud-based geospatial platform. Big Earth Data. 2018; 2 (4):368-394.
Chicago/Turabian StyleWansub Kim; Peter Burgherr; Matteo Spada; Peter Lustenberger; Anna Kalinina; Stefan Hirschberg. 2018. "Energy-related Severe Accident Database (ENSAD): cloud-based geospatial platform." Big Earth Data 2, no. 4: 368-394.
In this study, a dataset of worldwide hydropower dam accidents in the period 1896–2014 is used to analyze risks for different dam types, dam heights, stages of the dam life cycle, and accident causes in OECD and non-OECD w/o China countries. Evaluation of the risk for individual characteristics has proven to be meaningful in studies related to dam safety. Previous studies often suffered from the fact that the methods applied could not overcome limitations posed by scarce data. The proposed Bayesian hierarchical modeling presents all accidents as a multilevel system with modules reflecting specific characteristics. It samples from the entire system, and models probabilities even for modules with few data. Mean values of probabilities for both frequency and severity are combined to interpret the risk for a particular category. Embankment and gravity dams have a higher risk in non-OECD w/o China than OECD countries. For arch dams, frequencies are in the same range for both country groups, but consequences have large uncertainties; therefore, no statistical difference in risk was found. Risks in the dam life cycle depend on the dam type and region. Accidents due to natural causes have the highest risk both in non-OECD w/o China and OECD countries.
Anna Kalinina; Matteo Spada; Peter Burgherr. Application of a Bayesian hierarchical modeling for risk assessment of accidents at hydropower dams. Safety Science 2018, 110, 164 -177.
AMA StyleAnna Kalinina, Matteo Spada, Peter Burgherr. Application of a Bayesian hierarchical modeling for risk assessment of accidents at hydropower dams. Safety Science. 2018; 110 ():164-177.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAnna Kalinina; Matteo Spada; Peter Burgherr. 2018. "Application of a Bayesian hierarchical modeling for risk assessment of accidents at hydropower dams." Safety Science 110, no. : 164-177.
Within the broader context of energy security and critical infrastructure protection, the comprehensive assessment of accidents and their related consequences are of high priority for many stakeholders. The risk of accidents is commonly assessed by aggregated risk indicators, allowing for a consistent and direct comparison between energy chains and country groups. However, these indicators do not explicitly evaluate consequences at selected probability levels and/or consider risk aversion aspects. Furthermore, in risk-informed decision-making it is important to account for risk preferences of different stakeholders. To overcome these potential drawbacks, in this study, Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall and the Spectral Risk Measures, which are commonly used in the financial realm, are applied within an energy security perspective. In particular, fatality risk indicators are calculated for different country groups of three fossil data sets (coal, oil, natural gas) extracted from the Energy-related Severe Accident Database (ENSAD). The use of these risk measures facilitates a direct comparison and a better understanding of energy accident risks to insurers and other industry stakeholders that normally focus on financial and less infrastructure-related aspects. Furthermore, the usefulness of the risk measures and their pros and cons in the evaluation of accident risks in the energy sector has been discussed.
Matteo Spada; Florentina Paraschiv; Peter Burgherr. A comparison of risk measures for accidents in the energy sector and their implications on decision-making strategies. Energy 2018, 154, 277 -288.
AMA StyleMatteo Spada, Florentina Paraschiv, Peter Burgherr. A comparison of risk measures for accidents in the energy sector and their implications on decision-making strategies. Energy. 2018; 154 ():277-288.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMatteo Spada; Florentina Paraschiv; Peter Burgherr. 2018. "A comparison of risk measures for accidents in the energy sector and their implications on decision-making strategies." Energy 154, no. : 277-288.
Resilience often addresses preparedness of systems and social units to internal or/and external hazards, and the subsequent recovery. Preparedness is primarily associated with the designed, as-built, pre-disaster phase of a system, while recovery deals with the post-disruption response. While the damage of a system and the service disruption is associated with inherent properties of its components, as well as the magnitude of the hazard, recovery is additionally influenced by external factors, such as the state of the access infrastructure. This paper demonstrates a simulation approach to quantify a metric of resilience, in this case the integral loss of function or service. A case study on the impact of floods on a natural gas network is presented, considering the geospatial location of the network, the areas with and without service, the required times for travel to the damage locations and inspection/repair. The results underscore how the priorities selected for recovery can lead to strikingly different outcomes in terms of the resilience measure.
Miltos Kyriakidis; Peter Lustenberger; Peter Burgherr; Vinh N. Dang; Stefan Hirschberg. Quantifying Energy Systems Resilience-A Simulation Approach to Assess Recovery. Energy Technology 2018, 6, 1700 -1706.
AMA StyleMiltos Kyriakidis, Peter Lustenberger, Peter Burgherr, Vinh N. Dang, Stefan Hirschberg. Quantifying Energy Systems Resilience-A Simulation Approach to Assess Recovery. Energy Technology. 2018; 6 (9):1700-1706.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMiltos Kyriakidis; Peter Lustenberger; Peter Burgherr; Vinh N. Dang; Stefan Hirschberg. 2018. "Quantifying Energy Systems Resilience-A Simulation Approach to Assess Recovery." Energy Technology 6, no. 9: 1700-1706.