This study presents an event-based storyline framework to assess the influence of future climatic and socioeconomic conditions on coastal flood impacts to critical infrastructure. The framework combines well-established quantitative methods of sea level rise, coastal inundation, and critical infrastructure (CI) physical damage assessments into an integrated modelling approach. We apply our approach to re-imagine three historic events: storm Xaver, storm Xynthia , and a storm surge event along the coast of Emilia Romagna (Italy). Our results indicate that northern Germany would benefit mostly from coordinated adaptation action to reduce the flood impact, whereas the southwestern coast of France would find the highest damage reduction through asset-level ‘autonomous’ adaptation action. Our approach helps to improve the scientific understanding of how coastal flood risk are assessed and best managed, and forces a distillation of the science into an accessible narrative to support policymakers and asset owners to make progress towards more climate-resilient coastal communities.
The sensitivity of simulated flood depth and area to DEM resolution are acknowledged, but their effects on flood damage and risk estimates are less well understood. This study sought to analyse the relative benefits of using global DEMs of different resolution sizes, 5 m AW3D Standard, 12.5 m ALOS PALSAR and 30 m SRTM, to simulate flood inundation, damage and risk. The HEC-RAS 2D model was adopted for flood simulations, and the Toba River in the Klang River Basin in Malaysia was chosen for the case study. Simulated inundation areas from AW3D coincide the most with reported flooded areas, but the coarser-resolution DEMs did capture some of the reported flooded areas. The inundation area increased as the resolution got finer. As a result, AW3D returned almost double flood damage and risk estimates compared to ALOS PALSAR, and almost quadruple compared to SRTM for building-level damage and risk analysis. The findings indicate that a finer-resolution DEM improves inundation modelling and could provide greater flood damage and risk estimates compared to a coarser DEM. However, DEMs of coarser resolution remain useful in data-scarce regions or for large-scale assessments in efforts to manage flood risk.
Infrastructure Asset Management (IAM) is the process by which decisions are made and resources allocated to ensure organisational or societal assets continue to deliver, as required. IAM is an evolving field. We discuss this evolution and present our perspectives on the future direction of IAM. IAM was born as a response to the poor state of maintenance of infrastructure, largely due to lack of resources, and emphasizes the need to prioritize maintenance and renewal using risk-based approaches. The demands on IAM have also continued to evolve as asset systems have become more complex, with multifunctionality, adaptative capacity and nature-based infrastructure, all issues that IAM must now consider. These challenges underpin the changing context of Water Infrastructure Asset Management (WIAM) and the opportunity for WIAM to harness new technical developments from other IAM domains. WIAM will need to continue to evolve, responding to these challenges and take advantage of these opportunities through research and application in collaboration with a relevant education and capacity development agenda.
23 August 2016 in International Journal of River Basin Management
Major droughts are an ever-present threat in almost all countries; a threat that is set to increase in response to climate change and the influence of socio-economic change on the demand for, and use of, water. Historically droughts have been responded to ‘as they happen’ leading to incremental shifts in approach as lessons are learnt. Given the significance of the challenge now faced in this heuristic approach is no longer fit for purpose and a new approach is required. Based upon a combination of expert workshops, detailed international case studies and analysis of past droughts, this paper sets out a strategic approach to managing water resources that specifically addresses drought. The framework encourages a focus on long-term outcomes (for people, ecosystems and economies) and views drought as a water-related risk, not simply a hazard. Strategic drought risk management (SDRM) is presented as a multi-scale endeavour, providing both local and regional solutions whilst addressing short- and long-term challenges. It seeks to implement a diverse portfolio of measures during non-drought conditions as well in the run-up to, during and after a drought event whilst recognizing the critical interdependences between human systems and freshwater ecosystems. The paper concludes by presenting eight ‘Golden Rules’ to guide a sound approach to SDRM.
17 October 2022 in Journal of Flood Risk Management
An increase in extreme weather events is leading to increased flood occurrence and risk in many areas. Although climate mitigation strategies are being implemented, it is widely accepted that societies must adapt to climate variability and climate change. Traditional climate change impact studies have used projections for future time‐slices, often for a range of possible emissions scenarios. Recently however, there has been a move to instead consider climate change impacts relative to global mean surface temperature (GMST) change, to try to encourage action to avoid the more severe impacts from higher GMST changes. To support adaptation planning, more localised information on impacts is required. Here, data on the potential range of changes in flood peaks is generated by combining flood response surfaces and the new UK Climate Projections 2018, for every river cell on a 1 km grid across Britain, for GMST changes of 1–4.5°C. The results show significant spatial variation, with impacts typically higher in the west than the east, and generally increasing with GMST change. Some southern regions show flood peak changes accelerating with GMST change. The changes in flood peaks can be translated into changes in flood inundation and associated flood risk under alternative adaptation assumptions.