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Currently Researcher at CNR-IBBR. I have a Master's degree in forestry and a PhD in ecological modeling and climate change. I am currently working on climate change projections and tree species responses.
Interactions between soil, topography, and climatic site factors can exacerbate and/or alleviate the vulnerability of oak woodland to climate change. Reducing climate-related impacts on oak woodland habitats and ecosystems through adaptation management requires knowledge of different site interactions in relation to species tolerance. In Britain, the required thematic detail of woodland type is unavailable from digital maps. A species distribution model (SDM) ensemble, using biomod2 algorithms, was used to predict oak woodland. The model was cross-validated (50%:50% - training:testing) 30 times, with each of 15 random sets of absence data, matching the size of presence data, to maximize environmental variation while maintaining data prevalence. Four biomod2 algorithms provided stable and consistent TSS-weighted ensemble mean results predicting oak woodland as a probability raster. Biophysical data from the Ecological Site Classification (forest site classification) for Britain were used to characterize oak woodland sites. Several forest datasets were used, each with merits and weaknesses: public forest estate subcompartment database map (PFE map) for oak-stand locations as a training dataset; the national forest inventory (NFI) “published regional reports” of oak woodland area; and an “NFI map” of indicative forest type broad habitat. Broadleaved woodland polygons of the NFI map were filled with the biomod2 oak woodland probability raster. Ranked pixels were selected up to the published NFI regional area estimate of oak woodland and matched to the elevation distribution of oak woodland stands, from “NFI survey” sample squares. Validation using separate oak woodland data showed that the elevation filter significantly improved the accuracy of predictions from 55% (p = .53) to 83% coincidence success rate (p < .0001). The biomod2 ensemble, with masking and filtering, produced a predicted oak woodland map, from which site characteristics will be used in climate change interaction studies, supporting adaptation management recommendations for forest policy and practice.
Duncan Ray; Maurizio Marchi; Andrew Rattey; Alice Broome. A multi‐data ensemble approach for predicting woodland type distribution: Oak woodland in Britain. Ecology and Evolution 2021, 11, 9423 -9434.
AMA StyleDuncan Ray, Maurizio Marchi, Andrew Rattey, Alice Broome. A multi‐data ensemble approach for predicting woodland type distribution: Oak woodland in Britain. Ecology and Evolution. 2021; 11 (14):9423-9434.
Chicago/Turabian StyleDuncan Ray; Maurizio Marchi; Andrew Rattey; Alice Broome. 2021. "A multi‐data ensemble approach for predicting woodland type distribution: Oak woodland in Britain." Ecology and Evolution 11, no. 14: 9423-9434.
Biodiversity maintenance is a key strategy for sustainable forestry in both above-ground and below-ground biotic communities. However, few studies applied continuous monitoring to analyse the responses of different taxonomic groups to silvicultural treatments. We studied the short-term effects of three silvicultural treatments (no thinning, thinning from below, and selective thinning) on taxonomic richness and composition in two Pinus nigra J.F. Arnold plantations in Tuscany (Italy). We conducted a 1 year before–3 years after control-impact (BACI) experiment with a complete randomized design and analysed the responses of five different taxonomic groups (bacteria, nematodes, microarthropods, mushrooms and vascular plants (overstorey and understorey), along with the patterns of different structural variables. The silvicultural treatments induced a sudden decrease of many parameters such as number of trees per hectare, basal area, and standing volume, with a direct impact on the Photosynthetic Active Radiation on the ground. Despite this, biological communities showed a high resistance to the tree thinning intensities. Indeed, none of the thinning treatments significantly affected the different communities in the short-term, neither regarding taxonomic richness nor composition. The different taxonomic groups showed a similar, low or null, sensitivity to forest management, and thus a high congruence in their responses.
Simona Maccherini; Elena Salerni; Stefano Mocali; Elisa Bianchetto; Silvia Landi; Isabella De Meo; Umberto Di Salvatore; Maurizio Marchi; Giovanni Bacaro; Enrico Tordoni; Debora Barbato; Lorenzo Gardin; Claudia Perini; Arturo Fabiani; Carolina Chiellini; Claudia Angiolini; Giada D'Errico; Emanuele Fanfarillo; Paolo Cantiani. Silvicultural management does not affect biotic communities in conifer plantations in the short-term: A multi-taxon assessment using a BACI approach. Forest Ecology and Management 2021, 493, 119257 .
AMA StyleSimona Maccherini, Elena Salerni, Stefano Mocali, Elisa Bianchetto, Silvia Landi, Isabella De Meo, Umberto Di Salvatore, Maurizio Marchi, Giovanni Bacaro, Enrico Tordoni, Debora Barbato, Lorenzo Gardin, Claudia Perini, Arturo Fabiani, Carolina Chiellini, Claudia Angiolini, Giada D'Errico, Emanuele Fanfarillo, Paolo Cantiani. Silvicultural management does not affect biotic communities in conifer plantations in the short-term: A multi-taxon assessment using a BACI approach. Forest Ecology and Management. 2021; 493 ():119257.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSimona Maccherini; Elena Salerni; Stefano Mocali; Elisa Bianchetto; Silvia Landi; Isabella De Meo; Umberto Di Salvatore; Maurizio Marchi; Giovanni Bacaro; Enrico Tordoni; Debora Barbato; Lorenzo Gardin; Claudia Perini; Arturo Fabiani; Carolina Chiellini; Claudia Angiolini; Giada D'Errico; Emanuele Fanfarillo; Paolo Cantiani. 2021. "Silvicultural management does not affect biotic communities in conifer plantations in the short-term: A multi-taxon assessment using a BACI approach." Forest Ecology and Management 493, no. : 119257.
The introduction of Douglas-fir [Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco] in Europe has been one of the most important and extensive silvicultural experiments since the 1850s. This success was mainly supported by the species’ wide genome and phenotypic plasticity even if the genetic origin of seeds used for plantations is nowadays often unknown. This is especially true for all the stands planted before the IUFRO experimentation in the 1960s. In this paper, a methodology to estimate the Douglas-fir provenances currently growing in Italy is proposed. The raw data from the last Italian National Forest Inventory were combined with literature information to obtain the current spatial distribution of the species in the country representing its successful introduction. Afterwards, a random forest classification model was run using downscaled climatic data as predictors and the classification scheme adopted in previous research studies in the Pacific North West of America. The analysis highlighted good matching between the native and the introduction range in Italy. Coastal provenances from British Columbia and the dry coast of Washington were detected as the most likely seed sources, covering 63.4% and 33.8% of the current distribution of the species in the country, respectively. Interior provenances and those from the dry coast of Oregon were also represented but limited to very few cases. The extension of the model on future scenarios predicted a gradual shift in suitable provenances with the dry coast of Oregon in the mid-term (2050s) and afterwards California (2080s) being highlighted as possible new seed sources. However, only further analysis with genetic markers and molecular methods will be able to confirm the proposed scenarios. A validation of the genotypes currently available in Italy will be mandatory as well as their regeneration processes (i.e., adaptation), which may also diverge from those occurring in the native range due to a different environmental pressure. This new information will also add important knowledge, allowing a refinement of the proposed modeling framework for a better support for forest managers.
Maurizio Marchi; Claudia Cocozza. Probabilistic Provenance Detection and Management Pathways for Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco in Italy Using Climatic Analogues. Plants 2021, 10, 215 .
AMA StyleMaurizio Marchi, Claudia Cocozza. Probabilistic Provenance Detection and Management Pathways for Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco in Italy Using Climatic Analogues. Plants. 2021; 10 (2):215.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMaurizio Marchi; Claudia Cocozza. 2021. "Probabilistic Provenance Detection and Management Pathways for Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco in Italy Using Climatic Analogues." Plants 10, no. 2: 215.
Interpolated climate data have become essential for regional or local climate change impact assessments and the development of climate change adaptation strategies. Here, we contribute an accessible, comprehensive database of interpolated climate data for Europe that includes monthly, annual, decadal, and 30-year normal climate data for the last 119 years (1901 to 2019) as well as multi-model CMIP5 climate change projections for the 21st century. The database also includes variables relevant for ecological research and infrastructure planning, comprising more than 20,000 climate grids that can be queried with a provided ClimateEU software package. In addition, 1 km and 2.5 km resolution gridded data generated by the software are available for download. The quality of ClimateEU estimates was evaluated against weather station data for a representative subset of climate variables. Dynamic environmental lapse rate algorithms employed by the software to generate scale-free climate variables for specific locations lead to improvements of 10 to 50% in accuracy compared to gridded data. We conclude with a discussion of applications and limitations of this database.
Maurizio Marchi; Dante Castellanos-Acuña; Andreas Hamann; Tongli Wang; Duncan Ray; Annette Menzel. ClimateEU, scale-free climate normals, historical time series, and future projections for Europe. Scientific Data 2020, 7, 1 -9.
AMA StyleMaurizio Marchi, Dante Castellanos-Acuña, Andreas Hamann, Tongli Wang, Duncan Ray, Annette Menzel. ClimateEU, scale-free climate normals, historical time series, and future projections for Europe. Scientific Data. 2020; 7 (1):1-9.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMaurizio Marchi; Dante Castellanos-Acuña; Andreas Hamann; Tongli Wang; Duncan Ray; Annette Menzel. 2020. "ClimateEU, scale-free climate normals, historical time series, and future projections for Europe." Scientific Data 7, no. 1: 1-9.
Soil invertebrates represent almost a quarter of the total diversity of living organisms and their activity affects the entire soil ecological process. The choice of adequate thinning systems may differently affect soil nematode and microarthropod biodiversity in artificial black pinewoods. In this work, the results of the impact of different thinnings on the structure of nematode and microarthropod communities was reported. In a short-term experiment, thinning from below and selective thinning were compared to unmanaged stands to provide indications at the regional scale in central Italy. Soil nematode and microarthropod biodiversity was explored by examining community structure, assessing biodiversity. The interaction between environmental variables (crown volume, Photosynthetically Active Radiation, soil texture, soil temperature, and moisture) with taxa abundance of nematodes and microarthropods were also reported. The results indicated that the effects of thinning practices were temporary and varied between years. Soil nematode community shifted during the first and third years of thinning managements only in the Pratomagno site, while soil microarthropod community shifted in both sites only in the second year. The total nematode abundance was minimally affected by thinning practices, while the nematode community composition showed a decrease of omnivores and predators in the first years. Soil indicators showed inconsistent results. In microarthropods, mites and collembola were the least affected by thinning in terms of abundance and species biodiversity, while eu-edaphic taxa of Chilopoda, Diplopoda, and Pauropoda were not influenced by thinning, hemi-edaphic and epi-edaphic taxa of Coleoptera, Diptera, Hymenoptera, Tysanoptera, and Hemiptera were negatively affected. Soil indicators such as Shannon-Weiner and Simpson indices and soil biological quality (QBS-ar) improved in thinning from below in both sites. Soil temperature and moisture were the main driving factors in affecting soil nematode and microarthropods communities. Thinning from below probably allowed a more rapid recovery than selective thinning.
Silvia Landi; Giada D’Errico; Francesco Binazzi; Umberto Di Salvatore; Lorenzo Gardin; Maurizio Marchi; Giuseppe Mazza; Pio Federico Roversi; Stefania Simoncini; Giulia Torrini; Paolo Cantiani. The Short-Term Impact of Different Silvicultural Thinnings on Soil Nematode and Microarthropod Biodiversity in Artificial Black Pine Stands. Forests 2020, 11, 1212 .
AMA StyleSilvia Landi, Giada D’Errico, Francesco Binazzi, Umberto Di Salvatore, Lorenzo Gardin, Maurizio Marchi, Giuseppe Mazza, Pio Federico Roversi, Stefania Simoncini, Giulia Torrini, Paolo Cantiani. The Short-Term Impact of Different Silvicultural Thinnings on Soil Nematode and Microarthropod Biodiversity in Artificial Black Pine Stands. Forests. 2020; 11 (11):1212.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSilvia Landi; Giada D’Errico; Francesco Binazzi; Umberto Di Salvatore; Lorenzo Gardin; Maurizio Marchi; Giuseppe Mazza; Pio Federico Roversi; Stefania Simoncini; Giulia Torrini; Paolo Cantiani. 2020. "The Short-Term Impact of Different Silvicultural Thinnings on Soil Nematode and Microarthropod Biodiversity in Artificial Black Pine Stands." Forests 11, no. 11: 1212.
Forests provide a range of ecosystem services essential for human wellbeing. In a changing climate, forest management is expected to play a fundamental role by preserving the functioning of forest ecosystems and enhancing the adaptive processes. Understanding and quantifying the future forest coverage in view of climate changes is therefore crucial in order to develop appropriate forest management strategies. However, the potential impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems remain largely unknown due to the uncertainties lying behind the future prediction of models. To fill this knowledge gap, here we aim to provide an uncertainty assessment of the potential impact of climate change on the forest coverage in Italy using species distribution modelling technique. The spatial distribution of 19 forest tree species in the country was extracted from the last national forest inventory and modelled using nine Species Distribution Models algorithms, six different Global Circulation Models (GCMs), and one Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for 2050s under an intermediate forcing scenario (RCP 4.5). The single species predictions were then compared and used to build a future forest cover map for the country. Overall, no sensible variation in the spatial distribution of the total forested area was predicted with compensatory effects in forest coverage of different tree species, whose magnitude and patters appear largely modulated by the driving climate models. The analyses reported an unchanged amount of total land suitability to forest growth in mountain areas while smaller values were predicted for valleys and floodplains than high-elevation areas. Pure woods were predicted as the most influenced when compared with mixed stands which are characterized by a greater species richness and, therefore, a supposed higher level of biodiversity and resilience to climate change threatens. Pure softwood stands along the Apennines chain in central Italy (e.g., Pinus, Abies) were more sensitive than hardwoods (e.g., Fagus, Quercus) and generally characterized by pure and even-aged planted forests, much further away from their natural structure where admixture with other tree species is more likely. In this context a sustainable forest management strategy may reduce the potential impact of climate change on forest ecosystems. Silvicultural practices should be aimed at increasing the species richness and favoring hardwoods currently growing as dominating species under conifers canopy, stimulating the natural regeneration, gene flow, and supporting (spatial) migration processes.
Matteo Pecchi; Maurizio Marchi; Marco Moriondo; Giovanni Forzieri; Marco Ammoniaci; Iacopo Bernetti; Marco Bindi; Gherardo Chirici. Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Forest Coverage and the Spatial Distribution of 19 Key Forest Tree Species in Italy under RCP4.5 IPCC Trajectory for 2050s. Forests 2020, 11, 934 .
AMA StyleMatteo Pecchi, Maurizio Marchi, Marco Moriondo, Giovanni Forzieri, Marco Ammoniaci, Iacopo Bernetti, Marco Bindi, Gherardo Chirici. Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Forest Coverage and the Spatial Distribution of 19 Key Forest Tree Species in Italy under RCP4.5 IPCC Trajectory for 2050s. Forests. 2020; 11 (9):934.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMatteo Pecchi; Maurizio Marchi; Marco Moriondo; Giovanni Forzieri; Marco Ammoniaci; Iacopo Bernetti; Marco Bindi; Gherardo Chirici. 2020. "Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Forest Coverage and the Spatial Distribution of 19 Key Forest Tree Species in Italy under RCP4.5 IPCC Trajectory for 2050s." Forests 11, no. 9: 934.
The adoption of new silvicultural methods and approaches requires an understanding of the differences between those and “old” or “conventional” approaches, along with extensive training to break previous knowledge bias. Forestry is in transition towards ecosystem-based management, and new silvicultural approaches are appearing worldwide. However, the adoption of an alternative silvicultural approach is difficult in practice. We analyzed the effect of forestry background and demographic variables (gender and age) of 24 raters on the application of the systemic approach (SA) and the conventional approach (CA) in the Northern Apennines (Italy) and compared this with tree marking performed by experts. Data were analyzed as raters’ departures from experts’ selections at the stand and the individual tree level. The probability of tree selection was also calculated. At the stand level, raters with forestry background performed the SA as if they were marking for crown thinning, whereas the CA was less intense than experts’ crown thinning. Non-foresters differentiated poorly between the SA and the CA. At the individual tree level, background and gender affected tree selection. The adoption of the SA as a silvicultural system may be conditioned by previous knowledge. The difference between SA and CA remains unclear when it comes to non-foresters. Gender was a more important variable than age in selecting which trees would be harvested.
Andrés Bravo-Oviedo; Maurizio Marchi; Davide Travaglini; Francesco Pelleri; Maria Chiara Manetti; Piermaria Corona; Fátima Cruz; Felipe Bravo; Susanna Nocentini. Adoption of new silvicultural methods in Mediterranean forests: the influence of educational background and sociodemographic factors on marker decisions. Annals of Forest Science 2020, 77, 1 -17.
AMA StyleAndrés Bravo-Oviedo, Maurizio Marchi, Davide Travaglini, Francesco Pelleri, Maria Chiara Manetti, Piermaria Corona, Fátima Cruz, Felipe Bravo, Susanna Nocentini. Adoption of new silvicultural methods in Mediterranean forests: the influence of educational background and sociodemographic factors on marker decisions. Annals of Forest Science. 2020; 77 (2):1-17.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAndrés Bravo-Oviedo; Maurizio Marchi; Davide Travaglini; Francesco Pelleri; Maria Chiara Manetti; Piermaria Corona; Fátima Cruz; Felipe Bravo; Susanna Nocentini. 2020. "Adoption of new silvicultural methods in Mediterranean forests: the influence of educational background and sociodemographic factors on marker decisions." Annals of Forest Science 77, no. 2: 1-17.
Stem tapers are mathematical functions modelling the relative decrease of diameter (rD) as the relative height (rH) increase in trees and can be successfully used in precision forest harvesting. In this paper, the diameters of the stem at various height of 202 Pinus nigra trees were fully measured by means of an optical relascope (CRITERION RD 1000) by adopting a two-steps non-destructive strategy. Data were modelled with four equations including a linear model, two polynomial functions (second and third order) and the Generalised Additive Model. Predictions were also compared with the output from the TapeR R package, an object-oriented tool implementing the β-Spline functions and widely used in the literature and scientific research. Overall, the high quality of the database was detected as the most important driver for modelling with algorithms almost equivalent each other. The use of a non-destructive sampling method allowed the full measurement of all the trees necessary to build a mathematical function properly. The results clearly highlight the ability of all the tested models to reach a high statistical significance with an adjusted-R squared higher than 0.9. A very low mean relative absolute error was also calculated with a cross validation procedure and small standard deviation were associated. Substantial differences were detected with the TapeR prediction. Indeed, the use of mixed models improved the data handling with outputs not affected by autocorrelation which is one of the main issues when measuring trees profile. The profile data violate one of the basic assumptions of modelling: the independence of sampled units (i.e., autocorrelation of measured values across the stem of a tree). Consequently, the use of simple parametric equations can only be a temporary resource before more complex built-in apps are able to allow basic users to exploit more powerful modelling techniques.
Maurizio Marchi; Roberto Scotti; Giulia Rinaldini; Paolo Cantiani. Taper Function for Pinus nigra in Central Italy: Is a More Complex Computational System Required? Forests 2020, 11, 405 .
AMA StyleMaurizio Marchi, Roberto Scotti, Giulia Rinaldini, Paolo Cantiani. Taper Function for Pinus nigra in Central Italy: Is a More Complex Computational System Required? Forests. 2020; 11 (4):405.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMaurizio Marchi; Roberto Scotti; Giulia Rinaldini; Paolo Cantiani. 2020. "Taper Function for Pinus nigra in Central Italy: Is a More Complex Computational System Required?" Forests 11, no. 4: 405.
Background: Forests provide a range of ecosystem services essential for the human wellbeing and their ability is influenced by climate background and further connected to forest management strategies. Italy is a well-known biodiversity hotspot but an uncertainty assessment of the potential impact of climate change is still missing in this country. The aim of this paper is model the potential impact of climate change on 19 tree species occurring across the Italian forests using a species distribution modelling approach, six different Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and one Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for 2050s under an intermediate forcing scenario (RCP 4.5). Results: While no sensible variation in the spatial distribution of the total forested area has been predicted with some tree species gaining space and covering the spatial contractions of others, results showed substantial differences between each species and different climate models. The analyses reported an unchanged amount of total land suitability to forest growth in mountain areas while smaller values were predicted for valleys and floodplains than high-elevation areas. Pure woods were predicted as the most influenced when compared with mixed stands which are characterized by a greater species richness and therefore a supposed higher level of biodiversity and resilience to climate change threatens. Pure softwood stands (e.g. Pinus, Abies) were more sensitive than hardwoods (e.g. Fagus, Quercus), probably due to their artificial origin which established pure stands with tree species generally more prone to admixture with others in (semi)-natural ecosystems.Conclusions: Forest management could play a fundamental role to reduce the potential impact of climate change on forest ecosystems. Silvicultural practices should be aimed at increasing the species richness and favouring hardwoods currently growing as dominating species under conifers canopy, stimulating the natural regeneration, gene flow and supporting (spatial) migration processes.
Matteo Pecchi; Maurizio Marchi; Marco Moriondo; Giovanni Forzieri; Marco Ammoniaci; Iacopo Bernetti; Marco Bindi; Gherardo Chirici. Potential impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of key forest tree species in Italy under RCP4.5 for 2050s. 2020, 1 .
AMA StyleMatteo Pecchi, Maurizio Marchi, Marco Moriondo, Giovanni Forzieri, Marco Ammoniaci, Iacopo Bernetti, Marco Bindi, Gherardo Chirici. Potential impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of key forest tree species in Italy under RCP4.5 for 2050s. . 2020; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMatteo Pecchi; Maurizio Marchi; Marco Moriondo; Giovanni Forzieri; Marco Ammoniaci; Iacopo Bernetti; Marco Bindi; Gherardo Chirici. 2020. "Potential impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of key forest tree species in Italy under RCP4.5 for 2050s." , no. : 1.
Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) is an important exotic tree species that was planted across a large part of Europe during the last century. In both experimental trials and conventional forest plantations, the trees grow at a high rate and produce high-quality timber. The present study investigated climate-growth relationships of Douglas-fir at two Italian sites that contrast in climate: a Mediterranean area in southern Italy (Mercurella site) and a cooler, moister site in the northern Apennines without summer aridity (Acquerino). The relationship between tree-ring chronologies and monthly climatic variables was evaluated by a moving average and correlation analysis. Results showed that the minimum temperature in February and in March play a key role for Douglas-fir at both sites, with a positive effect on growth. At the northern site, it is also highly sensitive to late summer temperatures (negative correlation) and spring–summer precipitation (positive correlation). Growth rates in southern latitudes were high even in Europe and in the Mediterranean environment, with low sensitivity to climatic fluctuation. On the basis of our results, further common garden experiments should test adaptation and the interaction between genetics and environment of second- or third-generation seeds from old stands across Europe such as done by the old International Union of Forest Research Organizations (IUFRO) or the European Douglas-fir Improvement Research Cooperative (EUDIREC) experimentation programmes.
Cristiano Castaldi; Maurizio Marchi; Giorgio Vacchiano; Piermaria Corona. Douglas-fir climate sensitivity at two contrasting sites along the southern limit of the European planting range. Journal of Forestry Research 2019, 31, 2193 -2204.
AMA StyleCristiano Castaldi, Maurizio Marchi, Giorgio Vacchiano, Piermaria Corona. Douglas-fir climate sensitivity at two contrasting sites along the southern limit of the European planting range. Journal of Forestry Research. 2019; 31 (6):2193-2204.
Chicago/Turabian StyleCristiano Castaldi; Maurizio Marchi; Giorgio Vacchiano; Piermaria Corona. 2019. "Douglas-fir climate sensitivity at two contrasting sites along the southern limit of the European planting range." Journal of Forestry Research 31, no. 6: 2193-2204.
Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) techniques were originally developed in the mid-1980s. In this century they are gaining increasing attention in the literature and in practical use as a powerful tool to support forest management strategies especially under climate change. In this review paper we consider species occurrence datasets, climatic and soil predictor variables, modelling algorithms, evaluation methods and widely used software for SDM studies. We describe several important and freely available sources for species occurrence and interpolated climatic data. We outline the use of both presence-only and presence/absence modelling algorithms including distance-based algorithms, machine learning algorithms and regression-based models. We conclude that SDM techniques provide a valuable asset for forest managers. However, it is essential to consider uncertainties behind the use of future climate change scenarios.
Matteo Pecchi; Maurizio Marchi; Vanessa Burton; Francesca Giannetti; Marco Moriondo; Iacopo Bernetti; Marco Bindi; Gherardo Chirici. Species distribution modelling to support forest management. A literature review. Ecological Modelling 2019, 411, 108817 .
AMA StyleMatteo Pecchi, Maurizio Marchi, Vanessa Burton, Francesca Giannetti, Marco Moriondo, Iacopo Bernetti, Marco Bindi, Gherardo Chirici. Species distribution modelling to support forest management. A literature review. Ecological Modelling. 2019; 411 ():108817.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMatteo Pecchi; Maurizio Marchi; Vanessa Burton; Francesca Giannetti; Marco Moriondo; Iacopo Bernetti; Marco Bindi; Gherardo Chirici. 2019. "Species distribution modelling to support forest management. A literature review." Ecological Modelling 411, no. : 108817.
The European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) is a widely distributed tree species across Europe, highly sensitive to climate change and global warming. This study illustrates results of a 5-year monitoring time period from eight sites of the ICP-Forests Level II (intensive monitoring network) along the Italian latitudinal gradient. The tree-level relationship between tree growth dynamics and environmental factors, including seasonal climate fluctuations were investigated by means of tree-level Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs). Model results revealed that climate was responsible for just a portion of the variability in beech growth dynamics. Even if climatic predictors were highly significant in almost all sites, the model explained nearly 30% of the total variance (with just a maximum value of 71.6%), leaving the remaining variance unexplained and likely connected with forest management trajectories applied to each site (e.g., aged coppice and fully grown high forest). Climate change scenarios were then applied to predict site-specific future responses. By applying climate change scenarios, it was predicted that central and northern Italy would face similar climatic conditions to those currently detected at southern latitudes. A special case study was represented by VEN1 plot (Veneto, Northern Italy) whose current and future climate regimes were grouped in a unique and separated cluster.
Carlotta Ferrara; Maurizio Marchi; Gianfranco Fabbio; Silvano Fares; Giada Bertini; Maurizio Piovosi; Luca Salvati. Exploring Nonlinear Intra-Annual Growth Dynamics in Fagus sylvatica L. Trees at the Italian ICP-Forests Level II Network. Forests 2019, 10, 584 .
AMA StyleCarlotta Ferrara, Maurizio Marchi, Gianfranco Fabbio, Silvano Fares, Giada Bertini, Maurizio Piovosi, Luca Salvati. Exploring Nonlinear Intra-Annual Growth Dynamics in Fagus sylvatica L. Trees at the Italian ICP-Forests Level II Network. Forests. 2019; 10 (7):584.
Chicago/Turabian StyleCarlotta Ferrara; Maurizio Marchi; Gianfranco Fabbio; Silvano Fares; Giada Bertini; Maurizio Piovosi; Luca Salvati. 2019. "Exploring Nonlinear Intra-Annual Growth Dynamics in Fagus sylvatica L. Trees at the Italian ICP-Forests Level II Network." Forests 10, no. 7: 584.
WorldClim version 1 is a high-resolution, global climate gridded dataset covering 1961–1990; a “normal” climate. It has been widely used for ecological studies thanks to its free availability and global coverage. This study aims to evaluate the quality of WorldClim data by quantifying any discrepancies by comparison with an independent dataset of measured temperature and precipitation records across Europe. BIO1 (mean annual temperature, MAT) and BIO12 (mean total annual precipitation, MAP) were used as proxies to evaluate the spatial accuracy of the WorldClim grids. While good representativeness was detected for MAT, the study demonstrated a bias with respect to MAP. The average difference between WorldClim predictions and climate observations was around +0.2 °C for MAT and −48.7 mm for MAP, with large variability. The regression analysis revealed a good correlation and adequate proportion of explained variance for MAT (adjusted R2 = 0.856) but results for MAP were poor, with just 64% of the variance explained (adjusted R2 = 0.642). Moreover no spatial structure was found across Europe, nor any statistical relationship with elevation, latitude, or longitude, the environmental predictors used to generate climate surfaces. A detectable spatial autocorrelation was only detectable for the two most thoroughly sampled countries (Germany and Sweden). Although further adjustments might be evaluated by means of geostatistical methods (i.e., kriging), the huge environmental variability of the European environment deeply stressed the WorldClim database. Overall, these results show the importance of an adequate spatial structure of meteorological stations as fundamental to improve the reliability of climate surfaces and derived products of the research (i.e., statistical models, future projections).
Maurizio Marchi; Iztok Sinjur; Michele Bozzano; Marjana Westergren. Evaluating WorldClim Version 1 (1961–1990) as the Baseline for Sustainable Use of Forest and Environmental Resources in a Changing Climate. Sustainability 2019, 11, 3043 .
AMA StyleMaurizio Marchi, Iztok Sinjur, Michele Bozzano, Marjana Westergren. Evaluating WorldClim Version 1 (1961–1990) as the Baseline for Sustainable Use of Forest and Environmental Resources in a Changing Climate. Sustainability. 2019; 11 (11):3043.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMaurizio Marchi; Iztok Sinjur; Michele Bozzano; Marjana Westergren. 2019. "Evaluating WorldClim Version 1 (1961–1990) as the Baseline for Sustainable Use of Forest and Environmental Resources in a Changing Climate." Sustainability 11, no. 11: 3043.
The stand density index, one of the most important metrics for managing site occupancy, is generally calculated from empirical data by means of a coefficient derived from the “self-thinning rule” or stand density model. I undertook an exploratory analysis of model fitting based on simulated data. I discuss the use of the logarithmic transformation (i.e., linearisation) of the relationship between the total number of trees per hectare (N) and the quadratic mean diameter of the stand (QMD). I compare the classic method used by Reineke (J Agric Res 46:627–638, 1933), i.e., linear OLS model fitting after logarithmic transformation of data, with the “pure” power-law model, which represents the native mathematical structure of this relationship. I evaluated the results according to the correlation between N and QMD. Linear OLS and nonlinear fitting agreed in the estimation of coefficients only for highly correlated (between − 1 and − 0.85) or poorly correlated (> − 0.39) datasets. At average correlation values (i.e., between − 0.75 and − 0.4), it is probable that for practical applications, the differences were relevant, especially concerning the key coefficient for Reineke’s stand density index calculation. This introduced a non-negligible bias in SDI calculation. The linearised log–log model always estimated a lower slope term than did the exponent of the nonlinear function except at the extremes of the correlation range. While the logarithmic transformation is mathematically correct and always equivalent to a nonlinear model in case of prediction of the dependent variable, the difference detected in my studies between the two methods (i.e., coefficient estimation) was directly related to the correlation between N and QMD in each simulated/disturbed dataset. In general, given the power law as the “natural” structure of the N versus QMD relationship, the nonlinear model is preferred, with a logarithmic transformation used only in the case of violation of parametric assumptions (e.g. data distributed non-normally).
Maurizio Marchi. Nonlinear versus linearised model on stand density model fitting and stand density index calculation: analysis of coefficients estimation via simulation. Journal of Forestry Research 2019, 30, 1595 -1602.
AMA StyleMaurizio Marchi. Nonlinear versus linearised model on stand density model fitting and stand density index calculation: analysis of coefficients estimation via simulation. Journal of Forestry Research. 2019; 30 (5):1595-1602.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMaurizio Marchi. 2019. "Nonlinear versus linearised model on stand density model fitting and stand density index calculation: analysis of coefficients estimation via simulation." Journal of Forestry Research 30, no. 5: 1595-1602.
The future dynamics of forest species and ecosystems depend on the effects of climate change and are related to forest management strategies. The expected impacts of climate change are linked to forest growth and productivity. An increase in the length of the growing season and greater productivity are likely as well as shifts in average climatic values and more variable frequencies, intensities, durations and timings of extreme events. The main aim of this work is to assess and describe the climatic requirements for Italian forest tree species. We used 7.272 field observations from Italian National Forest Inventory plots and average annual temperatures and precipitation as interpolated from raster maps with 1 km spatial resolution. On this basis we evaluated the current observed distributions of the 19 most important tree species in Italy with respect to potential climatic limits based on expert knowledge and the available literature. We found that only 46% of the observations fall within the potential joint temperature and precipitation limits as defined by expert knowledge. For precipitation alone, 70% of observations were within the potential limits, and for temperature alone, 80% of observations were within the potential limits. Similarity between current observed and potential limits differ from species-to-species with broadleaves in general more frequently distributed within the potential climatic limits than conifers. We found that ecological requirements and potential information should be revised for some species, particularly for the Pinus genus and more frequently for precipitation. The results of the study are particularly relevant given the threat of climate change effects for Italian forests which are broadly acknowledged to be a biodiversity hotspot. Further investigations should be aimed at modelling the effects of climate changes on Italian forests as a basis for development of mitigation and adaptation forest management strategies.
M. Pecchi; Maurizio Marchi; Francesca Giannetti; Iacopo Bernetti; Marco Bindi; M. Moriondo; F. Maselli; Luca Fibbi; Piermaria Corona; D. Travaglini; G. Chirici. Reviewing climatic traits for the main forest tree species in Italy. iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry 2019, 12, 173 -180.
AMA StyleM. Pecchi, Maurizio Marchi, Francesca Giannetti, Iacopo Bernetti, Marco Bindi, M. Moriondo, F. Maselli, Luca Fibbi, Piermaria Corona, D. Travaglini, G. Chirici. Reviewing climatic traits for the main forest tree species in Italy. iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry. 2019; 12 (2):173-180.
Chicago/Turabian StyleM. Pecchi; Maurizio Marchi; Francesca Giannetti; Iacopo Bernetti; Marco Bindi; M. Moriondo; F. Maselli; Luca Fibbi; Piermaria Corona; D. Travaglini; G. Chirici. 2019. "Reviewing climatic traits for the main forest tree species in Italy." iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry 12, no. 2: 173-180.
Soil plays a fundamental role in many ecological processes, throughout a complex network of above- and below-ground interactions. This has aroused increasing interest in the use of correlates for biodiversity assessment and has demonstrated their reliability with respect to proxies based on environmental data alone. Although co-variation of species richness and composition in forests has been discussed in the literature, only a few studies have explored these elements in forest plantations, which are generally thought to be poor in biodiversity, being aimed at timber production. Based on this premise our aims were 1) to test if cross-taxon congruence across different groups of organisms (bacteria, vascular plants, mushrooms, ectomycorrhizae, mycelium, carabids, microarthropods, nematodes) is consistent in artificial stands; 2) to evaluate the strength of relationships due to the existing environmental gradients as expressed by abiotic and biotic factors (soil, spatial-topographic, dendrometric variables). Correlations between groups were studied with Mantel and partial Mantel tests while variance partition analysis was applied to assess the relative effect of environmental variables on the robustness of observed relationships. Significant cross-taxon congruence was observed across almost all taxonomic groups pairs. However, only bacteria/mycelium and mushrooms/mycelium correlations remained significant after removing the environmental effect, suggesting that a strong abiotic influence drives species composition. Considering variation partitioning, the results highlighted the importance of bacteria as a potential indicator: bacteria were the taxonomic group with the highest compositional variance explained by the predictors used; furthermore, they proved to be involved in the only cases where the variance attributed solely to the pure effect of biotic or abiotic predictors was significant. Remarkably, the co-dependent effect of all predictors always explained the highest portion of total variation in all dependent taxa, testifying the intricate and dynamic interplay of environmental factors and biotic interactions in explaining cross-taxon congruence in forest plantations.
Debora Barbato; Claudia Perini; Stefano Mocali; Giovanni Bacaro; Enrico Tordoni; Simona Maccherini; Maurizio Marchi; Paolo Cantiani; Isabella De Meo; Elisa Bianchetto; Silvia Landi; Silvia Bruschini; Gianni Bettini; Lorenzo Gardin; Elena Salerni. Teamwork makes the dream work: Disentangling cross-taxon congruence across soil biota in black pine plantations. Science of The Total Environment 2018, 656, 659 -669.
AMA StyleDebora Barbato, Claudia Perini, Stefano Mocali, Giovanni Bacaro, Enrico Tordoni, Simona Maccherini, Maurizio Marchi, Paolo Cantiani, Isabella De Meo, Elisa Bianchetto, Silvia Landi, Silvia Bruschini, Gianni Bettini, Lorenzo Gardin, Elena Salerni. Teamwork makes the dream work: Disentangling cross-taxon congruence across soil biota in black pine plantations. Science of The Total Environment. 2018; 656 ():659-669.
Chicago/Turabian StyleDebora Barbato; Claudia Perini; Stefano Mocali; Giovanni Bacaro; Enrico Tordoni; Simona Maccherini; Maurizio Marchi; Paolo Cantiani; Isabella De Meo; Elisa Bianchetto; Silvia Landi; Silvia Bruschini; Gianni Bettini; Lorenzo Gardin; Elena Salerni. 2018. "Teamwork makes the dream work: Disentangling cross-taxon congruence across soil biota in black pine plantations." Science of The Total Environment 656, no. : 659-669.
Shifts in government priorities in response to the 2007 global recession have affected wildfire management and natural disaster funding arrangements, leading to a reduced effectiveness of fire suppression actions and increasing fire vulnerability. Our study investigates the role of local socioeconomic contexts on fire suppression effectiveness under economic expansion and recession in a Mediterranean region (Attica, Greece) strongly affected by 2007 crisis and displaying a persistently high density of peri-urban wildfires. Basic characteristics of wildfires (spatial distribution, intensity, and land use preferences) were investigated in the study area over two consecutive 8-year time intervals characterized by economic expansion (2000–2007) and recession (2008–2015). An integrated approach based on multivariate statistics and artificial neural networks was implemented to evaluate latent relationships between fire suppression time, wildfire characteristics, and socioeconomic dynamics. Controlling for wildfires’ characteristics over the two time intervals, fire time length increased under crisis—mainly for small and medium-sized fires—possibly as an indirect response to reduced effectiveness of forest land management. Local contexts and political decisions influenced by economic downturns are relevant factors shaping wildfires’ severity in the Mediterranean region. With recession, local contexts vulnerable to wildfires require more effective fire prevention measures, sustainable forest management, and regional planning.
Carlotta Ferrara; Maurizio Marchi; Margherita Carlucci; Anastasios Mavrakis; Piermaria Corona; Luca Salvati. The 2007 crisis and Greek wildfires: a multivariate analysis of suppression times. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 2018, 190, 714 .
AMA StyleCarlotta Ferrara, Maurizio Marchi, Margherita Carlucci, Anastasios Mavrakis, Piermaria Corona, Luca Salvati. The 2007 crisis and Greek wildfires: a multivariate analysis of suppression times. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment. 2018; 190 (12):714.
Chicago/Turabian StyleCarlotta Ferrara; Maurizio Marchi; Margherita Carlucci; Anastasios Mavrakis; Piermaria Corona; Luca Salvati. 2018. "The 2007 crisis and Greek wildfires: a multivariate analysis of suppression times." Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 190, no. 12: 714.
Wildfires, a key socio-environmental challenge in Mediterranean regions, are influenced by anthropogenic factors shaping land-use and socioeconomic spatial structures. By assuming that the dominant socioeconomic structure of local districts exerts a variable impact on wildfire spatial regimes, the present study investigates 174 indicators on a municipal scale in Italy, identifying a multidimensional relationship between wildfire characteristics and socioeconomic contexts. An exploratory statistical approach was adopted to identify linear and non-linear relationships among variables assessing socioeconomic contexts and wildfire patterns. Empirical results demonstrate that characteristic wildfire attributes (frequency, intensity and severity) are systematically higher in socioeconomic contexts characterized by rural poverty, unemployment and deregulated urban expansion, especially in southern Italy. A higher fire frequency was typically observed in (i) peri-urban districts with a dynamic socio-demographic profile and (ii) in rural districts with intensive cropping systems. Joint information on socioeconomic structure/dynamics and environmental change, is crucial for a better understanding of local-scale spatial patterns of wildfires in the Mediterranean region. Integrated socio-environmental information provides a better understanding of the local communities' role in the management of wildfire-prone land, contributing to implement more effective strategies aimed at minimizing wildfire impact on land resources.
Carlotta Ferrara; Luca Salvati; Piermaria Corona; Raoul Romano; Maurizio Marchi. The background context matters: Local-scale socioeconomic conditions and the spatial distribution of wildfires in Italy. Science of The Total Environment 2018, 654, 43 -52.
AMA StyleCarlotta Ferrara, Luca Salvati, Piermaria Corona, Raoul Romano, Maurizio Marchi. The background context matters: Local-scale socioeconomic conditions and the spatial distribution of wildfires in Italy. Science of The Total Environment. 2018; 654 ():43-52.
Chicago/Turabian StyleCarlotta Ferrara; Luca Salvati; Piermaria Corona; Raoul Romano; Maurizio Marchi. 2018. "The background context matters: Local-scale socioeconomic conditions and the spatial distribution of wildfires in Italy." Science of The Total Environment 654, no. : 43-52.
The assessment of seed zones or regions of provenance (RoP) to preserve local adaptation of tree species is an effective tool for the correct management of forest reproductive materials. The RoP for a species or sub-species is the area or group of areas subject to sufficiently uniform ecological conditions in which stands or seed sources show similar phenotypic or genetic characters, taking into account altitudinal boundaries where appropriate. However, the delineation of RoPs is commonly based on estimates of intrinsic environmental homogeneity, mainly climate and/or soil characteristics. The integration of genetic data into RoP maps is an important strategy to obtain a sound tool for managing forest reproductive materials. A study on Quercus suber (cork oak) in Sardinia (Italy) was carried out with the aim of determining ecological regions of provenance, investigating the genetic diversity among populations at the regional scale and identifying possible areas of interest for valorising the available germplasm. Identification of these areas was performed by Reserve Selection Analysis, which allows to identify priority areas by assessing the minimum number of sites required to include all the genetic diversity estimated by genetic analysis. Four spatial clusters were obtained based on environmental data: the northern and northern-eastern parts of the island were included in the Northern RoP; the second RoP covered the western part; and the third RoP enclosed the south-eastern region. The last group was distributed on the central part of the island (Central RoP) and includes the higher elevations. The sampled populations showed a low differentiation among populations and low diversity. According to the Reserve Selection Analysis, four conservation priority areas were identified. These indications can be useful at the local level because these sites can be proposed as stands for seed collection for future plantations.
Giovanbattista D. de Dato; A. Teani; Claudia Mattioni; M. Marchi; M.C. Monteverdi; F. Ducci. Delineation of seed collection zones based on environmental and genetic characteristics for Quercus suber L. in Sardinia, Italy. iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry 2018, 11, 651 -659.
AMA StyleGiovanbattista D. de Dato, A. Teani, Claudia Mattioni, M. Marchi, M.C. Monteverdi, F. Ducci. Delineation of seed collection zones based on environmental and genetic characteristics for Quercus suber L. in Sardinia, Italy. iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry. 2018; 11 (5):651-659.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGiovanbattista D. de Dato; A. Teani; Claudia Mattioni; M. Marchi; M.C. Monteverdi; F. Ducci. 2018. "Delineation of seed collection zones based on environmental and genetic characteristics for Quercus suber L. in Sardinia, Italy." iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry 11, no. 5: 651-659.
Socioeconomic conditions and land management choices combine to affect changes in long-term wildfire regimes in Mediterranean-type ecosystems. Identification of specific drivers and dynamics at the local level is needed to inform land resource planning and to enhance wildfire management efficiency. Therefore, investigating feedback relationships between wildfire and socioeconomic conditions at local and regional scales can reveal consistency in spatial and temporal patterns influencing wildfire frequency, intensity, and severity. This study assessed long-term wildfire characteristics in Greece—one of the most fire-prone countries in Europe—over two consecutive time periods characterized by economic expansion (2000–2007) and recession (2008–2015). An integrated, multivariate statistical approach was implemented to assess the latent relationship between socioeconomic forces and localized wildfire regime indicators. Changes in the number of fires at the wildland–urban interface and duration of wildfires were consistent with expectations. Observed changes in the size of fires showed mixed results. Empirical findings of this study indicate analysis of wildfire regimes that takes into account both the socioeconomic and environmental factors in the overall territorial context of Mediterranean-type ecosystems, at both regional and local scale, may prove informative for the design of wildfire prevention measures in Greece.
Maurizio Marchi; Francesco Chianucci; Carlotta Ferrara; Giorgio Pontuale; Elisa Pontuale; Anastasios Mavrakis; Nathan Morrow; Fabrizio Rossi; Luca Salvati. Sustainable Land-Use, Wildfires, and Evolving Local Contexts in a Mediterranean Country, 2000–2015. Sustainability 2018, 10, 3911 .
AMA StyleMaurizio Marchi, Francesco Chianucci, Carlotta Ferrara, Giorgio Pontuale, Elisa Pontuale, Anastasios Mavrakis, Nathan Morrow, Fabrizio Rossi, Luca Salvati. Sustainable Land-Use, Wildfires, and Evolving Local Contexts in a Mediterranean Country, 2000–2015. Sustainability. 2018; 10 (11):3911.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMaurizio Marchi; Francesco Chianucci; Carlotta Ferrara; Giorgio Pontuale; Elisa Pontuale; Anastasios Mavrakis; Nathan Morrow; Fabrizio Rossi; Luca Salvati. 2018. "Sustainable Land-Use, Wildfires, and Evolving Local Contexts in a Mediterranean Country, 2000–2015." Sustainability 10, no. 11: 3911.