The summer precipitation produced by the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is significantly affecting agriculture and socioeconomics. Based on the Precipitation Reconstruction dataset in East China from 1950 to 2017, we investigate the spatiotemporal variations of summer precipitation, influencing environmental factors and their relation with the EASM and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in both central Pacific (CP) El Niño developing and decaying years. Results indicate the following: (1) The evolutions of CP El Niño events modulate the summer precipitation anomalies in East China. In the cool PDO phase, CP El Niño causes enhanced precipitation anomalies in the decaying years but less precipitation anomalies in the developing years, and vice versa for the warm PDO phase. (2) Atmospheric circulation anomalies drive the moisture transportation and combine the motion of western Pacific subtropical high resulting in the variation of precipitation patterns. Anomalous cyclone over the western North Pacific and the sustained Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) are favorable for the increment of summer precipitation. (3) The different CP El Niño-EASM relationship is caused by the influences of PDO on the evolution of CP El Niño. CP El Niño develops slowly (decays rapidly) and is associated with rapidly developing (slowly decaying) anomalous warming in the north Indian Ocean during the developing (decaying) years.

A technique is developed to identify the types of atmosphere-ocean interaction during El Niño-Southern Oscillation events using sea surface temperature, sea level pressure (SLP), and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data. Two pairs of indices are derived that separate the interactions into tropical and subtropical types and basin-wide and local types. The dominant interaction type for the observed El Niño events since 1980 is identified and shown to shift with time from the tropical to subtropical and from basin-wide to local. Thus, the 21st century El Niños have become dominated by subtropical and local interactions, in strong contrast to the 20th century El Niños that were dominated by the tropical and basin-wide interactions. These changes result in the 1997–98 and 2015–16 extreme El Niños being different in their evolutions and global impacts, despite having similar intensities. SLP is the key variable for separating the tropical and subtropical types of interactions, while OLR is the key variable for separating the basin-wide and local types of interactions.

El Niño is a large-scale ocean-atmospheric coupling phenomenon in the Pacific. The interaction among marine and atmospheric variables over the tropical Pacific modulate the evolution of El Niño. The latest research shows that machine learning and neural network (NN) have appeared as effective tools to achieve meaningful information from multiple marine and atmospheric parameters. In this paper, we aim to predict the El Niño index more accurately and increase the forecast efficiency of El Niño events. Here, we propose an approach combining a neural network technique with long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network to forecast El Niño phenomenon. The attributes of model are resulted from physical explanation which are tested with the experiments and observations. The neural network represents the connection among multiple variables and machine learning creates models to identify the El Niño events. The preliminary experimental results exhibit that training NN-LSTM model on network metrics time series dataset provides great potential for predicting El Niño phenomenon at lag times of up to more than 6 months.  

The Tibetan Plateau (TP), atmosphere, and Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) together constitute a regional land–atmosphere–ocean water vapor transport system. This study uses remote sensing data, reanalysis data, and observational data to explore the spatiotemporal variations of the summer atmospheric water cycle over the TP and its possible response to the air-sea interaction in the IPWP during the period 1958–2019. The results reveal that the atmospheric water cycle process over the TP presented an interannual and interdecadal strengthening trend. The climatic precipitation recycle ratio (PRR) over the TP was 18%, and the stronger the evapotranspiration, the higher the PRR. On the interdecadal scale, the change in evapotranspiration has a significant negative correlation with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. The variability of the water vapor transport (WVT) over the TP was controlled by the dynamic and thermal conditions inside the plateau and the external air-sea interaction processes of the IPWP. When the summer monsoon over the TP was strong, there was an anomalous cyclonic WVT, which increased the water vapor budget (WVB) over the TP. The central and eastern tropical Pacific, the maritime continent and the western Indian Ocean together constituted the triple Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly, which enhanced the convective activity over the IPWP and induced a significant easterly wind anomaly in the middle and lower troposphere, and then generated pronounced easterly WVT anomalies from the tropical Pacific to the maritime continent and the Bay of Bengal. Affected by the air-sea changes in the IPWP, the combined effects of the upstream strengthening and the downstream weakening in the water vapor transport process, directly and indirectly, increased the water vapor transport and budget of TP.