Structural changes in land use caused by urban development are one of the most important threats to ecosystem services. An in-depth study of the impacts that different land use patterns have on ecosystem service value (ESV) can provide guidance for sustainable urban planning and ecological conservation. In this research, we sought to explore the response mechanisms of ecosystem services under different urban development scenarios from the perspective of “production–living–ecological” space (PLES). This study combined the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model and ESV equivalent factor method to simulate the PLES and ESV of Haikou in 2035 under three scenarios of business as usual (BAU), ecological conservation (EC) and economic development (ED), and used the spatial superposition method, transfer matrix, and optimized cross-sensitivity analysis to explore the influence of the PLES on ecosystem services. The ESV of Haikou showed a declining trend from 2010 to 2020 under the influence of PLES changes and was at risk of further decline in the future. The reduction in the value of the water supply service constituted a major part of the loss of ESV. The simulation results demonstrated that the EC scenario had the most rational and ecologically efficient allocation of PLES, with the highest ESV and the lowest sensitivity to PLES changes. The results of this research can serve as an important reference for optimizing the urban land use structure and maintaining the stability of ecosystem services.

Camellia oleifera is an important woody oil plant in southern China, and developing its industry can enhance forest resource uses and increase edible oil supply. This study investigated the floral characteristics of different C. oleifera varieties, analysed the species and diversity of flower-visiting insects in different habitats, identified the main pollinators and their flower-visiting behaviours, and explored the relationship between pollinating insects and their floral characteristics. The floral lifespan of individual C. oleifera flowers was 5–8 d across cultivars, which is essentially the same. However, floral traits and nectar sugar composition exhibited distinct differences. There were 22 species of insect pollinators from 14 genera and 8 families, including Hymenoptera and Diptera, in 3 habitats. High-potential pollinators varied by habitat, with Apis cerana and Phytomia zonata being the most frequent. A comparison showed that A. cerana was the best pollinator, whereas P. zonata had a larger population, was not affected by oil tea nectar poisoning, and could still pollinate. Therefore, the contribution of P. zonata cannot be overlooked. Redundancy analysis revealed the response relationship between the floral traits of C. oleifera and three insect population characteristics. Stamen length was the main floral trait affecting insect populations.

Wetland ecosystems are critical for biodiversity conservation and carbon sequestration, underpinning climate regulation and sustainable development. Accurate prediction of wetland evolution is therefore essential for informed regional planning, particularly in International Wetland Cities. As one of the first designated International Wetland Cities, Haikou exemplifies the intensifying pressures faced by coastal wetlands in rapidly urbanizing regions, balancing economic development imperatives with ecological conservation. This study addresses this challenge by employing the PLUS model to simulate the spatiotemporal dynamics of wetland evolution in Haikou from 2010 to 2030 under four distinct scenarios: Business-as-Usual (BAU), Ecological Conservation (EC), Economic Development (ED), and Multi-Objective Development (MOD). The integrated approach combines landscape pattern dynamics analysis, land-use transition matrices, and quantitative assessment of driving factor contributions. Key findings reveal significant historical wetland loss between 2010 and 2020 (21.01 km²), characterized by substantial declines in artificial wetlands (paddy fields: −14.43 km²; agricultural ponds: −8.99 km²) alongside resilient growth in natural wetlands (rivers: +2.70 km²; mangroves: +1.25 km²), highlighting fundamental trade-offs between economic and ecological priorities. Scenario projections indicate that unregulated development (ED) would exacerbate wetland loss (−26.33 km²; dynamic change rate: −0.61%), including unprecedented river fragmentation (−16.0%). Conversely, strict conservation (EC) achieves near net-zero wetland loss (−0.05%) but constrains economic development capacity by 24%. Critically, the MOD scenario demonstrates an effective balance, maintaining 86% of EC’s wetland preservation efficacy while satisfying 73% of ED’s development demand. This is achieved through strategic interventions including establishing wetland protection constraints and optimizing bidirectional land conversion rules, yielding synergistic benefits. Spatial analysis identifies key conflict hotspots such as Nandu River shoreline, Dongzhai Port mangroves, necessitating targeted management strategies aligned with the heterogeneity of driving factors. This study advances the framework for sustainable wetland governance by demonstrating how multi-objective spatial planning can transform ecological-economic trade-offs into synergistic co-benefits. It provides a transferable methodological approach for coastal cities in the Global South and other International Wetland City.