Fluxes of momentum and moist enthalpy across the air–sea interface are believed to be one of the most important factors in determining tropical cyclone intensity. Because these surface fluxes cannot be directly resolved by numerical weather prediction models, their impacts on tropical cyclones must be accounted for through subgrid-scale parameterizations. There are several air–sea surface flux parameterization schemes available in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model; these schemes differ from one another in their formulations of the wind speed–dependent exchange coefficients of momentum, sensible heat, and moisture (latent heat). The effects of surface fluxes on the intensity and structure of tropical cyclones are examined through convection-permitting WRF simulations of Hurricane Katrina (2005). It is found that the intensity (and, to a lesser extent, structure) of the simulated storms is sensitive to the choice of surface flux parameterization scheme. In agreement with recent studies, the drag coefficient CD is found to affect the pressure–wind relationship (between minimum sea level pressure and maximum 10-m wind speed) and to change the radius of maximum near-surface winds of the tropical cyclone. Fluxes of sensible and latent heat (i.e., moist enthalpy) affect intensity but do not significantly change the pressure–wind relationship. Additionally, when low-level winds are strong, the contribution of dissipative heating to calculations of sensible heat flux is not negligible. Expanding the sensitivity tests to several dozen cases from the 2008 to 2011 Atlantic hurricane seasons demonstrates the robustness of these findings.

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are strongly influenced by fluxes of momentum and moist enthalpy across the air–sea interface. These fluxes cannot be resolved explicitly by current-generation numerical weather prediction models, and therefore must be accounted for via empirical parameterizations of surface exchange coefficients (CD for momentum and Ck for moist enthalpy). The resultant model uncertainty is examined through hundreds of convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) simulations of Hurricane Katrina (2005) by varying four key parameters found in commonly used parameterizations of the exchange coefficient formulas. Two of these parameters effectively act as multiplicative factors for the exchange coefficients over all wind speeds (one each for CD and Ck); the other two parameters control the behavior of CD at very high wind speeds (i.e., above 33 m s−1). It is found that both the intensity and the structure of TCs are highly dependent upon the two multiplicative parameters. The multiplicative parameter for CD has a considerably larger impact than the one for Ck on the relationship between maximum 10-m wind speed and minimum sea level pressure: CD alters TC structure, with higher values shifting the radius of maximum winds inward and strengthening the low-level inflow; Ck only affects structure by uniformly strengthening/weakening the primary and secondary circulations. The TC exhibits the greatest sensitivities to the two multiplicative parameters after a few hours of model integration, suggesting that these parameters could be estimated by assimilating near-surface observations. The other two parameters are likely more difficult to estimate because the TC is only marginally sensitive to them in small areas of high wind speed.

Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is strongly influenced by surface fluxes of momentum and moist enthalpy (typically parameterized in terms of “exchange coefficients” Cd and Ck, respectively). The behavior of Cd and Ck remains quite uncertain especially in high wind conditions over the ocean; moreover, moist enthalpy flux is extremely sensitive to sea surface temperature (SST). This study focuses on numerical simulations of Hurricane Katrina (2005) from an atmosphere–ocean coupled modeling system to examine the combined impacts of air–sea flux parameterizations and ocean cooling on TC evolution. Three momentum flux options—which make Cd increase, level off, or decrease at hurricane-force wind speeds—with five different Ck curves are tested. Maximum 10-m wind speed Vmax is highly sensitive to Cd, with weaker sensitivities for minimum sea level pressure Pmin and track. Atmosphere-only runs that held SST fixed yielded TCs with Pmin substantially deeper than observations. Introducing ocean coupling weakens TC intensity with much more realistic Pmin. The coupled run with the flux parameterization that decreases Cd at high wind speeds yields a simulated TC intensity most consistent with observations. This Cd parameterization produces TCs with the highest Vmax. Increasing Ck generally increases surface heat fluxes and thus TC intensity. For coupled runs using the default Ck parameterization, the simulated SST fields are similar (regardless of Cd parameterization) and agree well with satellite observations. The mesoscale oceanic eddies, which are well resolved in the ocean model, contribute to the magnitude of TC-induced SST cooling and greatly influence TC intensity.

Current numerical simulations of tropical cyclones (TCs) use a horizontal grid spacing as small as Δx = 10³ m, with all boundary layer (BL) turbulence parameterized. Eventually, TC simulations can be conducted at Large Eddy Simulation (LES) resolution, which requires Δx to fall in the inertial subrange (often <10² m) to adequately resolve the large, energy‐containing eddies. Between the two lies the so‐called “terra incognita” because some of the assumptions used by mesoscale models and LES to treat BL turbulence are invalid. This study performs several 4–6 h simulations of Hurricane Katrina (2005) without a BL parameterization at extremely fine Δx [333, 200, and 111 m, hereafter “Large Eddy Permitting (LEP) runs”] and compares with mesoscale simulations with BL parameterizations (Δx = 3 km, 1 km, and 333 m, hereafter “PBL runs”). There are profound differences in the hurricane BL structure between the PBL and LEP runs: the former have a deeper inflow layer and secondary eyewall formation, whereas the latter have a shallow inflow layer without a secondary eyewall. Among the LEP runs, decreased Δx yields weaker subgrid‐scale vertical momentum fluxes, but the sum of subgrid‐scale and “grid‐scale” fluxes remain similar. There is also evidence that the size of the prevalent BL eddies depends upon Δx, suggesting that convergence to true LES has not yet been reached. Nevertheless, the similarities in the storm‐scale BL structure among the LEP runs indicate that the net effect of the BL on the rest of the hurricane may be somewhat independent of Δx.

Supertyphoon Megi was the most intense tropical cyclone (TC) of 2010. Megi tracked westward through the western North Pacific and crossed the Philippines on 18 October. Two days later, Megi made a sharp turn to the north, an unusual track change that was not forecast by any of the leading operational centers. This failed forecast was a consequence of exceptionally large uncertainty in the numerical guidance—including the operational ensemble of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)—at various lead times before the northward turn. This study uses The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble dataset to examine the uncertainties in the track forecast of the ECMWF operational ensemble. The results show that Megi's sharp turn is sensitive to its own movement in the early period, the size and structure of the storm, the strength and extent of the western Pacific subtropical high, and an approaching eastward-moving midlatitude trough. In particular, a larger TC (in addition to having a stronger beta effect) may lead to a stronger erosion of the southwestern extent of the subtropical high, which will subsequently lead to an earlier and sharper northward turn.

The tropical cyclone (TC) boundary layer (TCBL)—featuring extreme winds over a rough ocean—is difficult to study observationally. With increasing computational power, high-resolution large-eddy simulation (LES) has become an attractive tool to advance understanding of the TCBL. Here, an idealized Cartesian-based LES is employed to investigate boundary layers driven by extreme TC-like winds. The LES includes the effects of centripetal acceleration through an “effective” Coriolis parameter f* = f + 2Vg/R, with the Earth Coriolis parameter f, gradient wind Vg, and (fixed) radius R. Multiple LES experiments are conducted to elucidate how the boundary layer develops and persists in the strongly rotating TC environment. In all simulations, an overshooting jet develops, the height of which increases with Vg, R, and surface drag. Normalized jet strength also increases with R and drag but decreases with Vg. Turbulent diffusivity Km—which must be parameterized in mesoscale and global models but can be diagnosed by LES—varies considerably both within and among simulations. Also evident is a pseudo-inertial oscillation with a period close to the theoretical 2π/f* and an amplitude that decreases exponentially with time. The LES simulations agree with the linear theory for partial-slip Ekman spirals, except when the effects of Km overwhelmingly counter the effects of Vg.