Tropical carbon emissions are largely derived from direct forest clearing processes. Yet, emissions from drought-induced forest fires are, usually, not included in national-level carbon emission inventories. Here we examine Brazilian Amazon drought impacts on fire incidence and associated forest fire carbon emissions over the period 2003–2015. We show that despite a 76% decline in deforestation rates over the past 13 years, fire incidence increased by 36% during the 2015 drought compared to the preceding 12 years. The 2015 drought had the largest ever ratio of active fire counts to deforestation, with active fires occurring over an area of 799,293 km². Gross emissions from forest fires (989 ± 504 Tg CO₂ year⁻¹) alone are more than half as great as those from old-growth forest deforestation during drought years. We conclude that carbon emission inventories intended for accounting and developing policies need to take account of substantial forest fire emissions not associated to the deforestation process.

Deforestation is the primary driver of carbon losses in tropical forests, but it does not operate alone. Forest fragmentation, a resulting feature of the deforestation process, promotes indirect carbon losses induced by edge effect. This process is not implicitly considered by policies for reducing carbon emissions in the tropics. Here, we used a remote sensing approach to estimate carbon losses driven by edge effect in Amazonia over the 2001 to 2015 period. We found that carbon losses associated with edge effect (947 Tg C) corresponded to one-third of losses from deforestation (2592 Tg C). Despite a notable negative trend of 7 Tg C year⁻¹ in carbon losses from deforestation, the carbon losses from edge effect remained unchanged, with an average of 63 ± 8 Tg C year⁻¹. Carbon losses caused by edge effect is thus an additional unquantified flux that can counteract carbon emissions avoided by reducing deforestation, compromising the Paris Agreement’s bold targets.

Extreme droughts have been recurrent in the Amazon over the past decades, causing socio-economic and environmental impacts. Here, we investigate the vulnerability of Amazonian forests, both undisturbed and human-modified, to repeated droughts. We defined vulnerability as a measure of (i) exposure, which is the degree to which these ecosystems were exposed to droughts, and (ii) its sensitivity, measured as the degree to which the drought has affected remote sensing-derived forest greenness. The exposure was calculated by assessing the meteorological drought, using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the maximum cumulative water deficit (MCWD), which is related to vegetation water stress, from 1981 to 2016. The sensitivity was assessed based on the enhanced vegetation index anomalies (AEVI), derived from the newly available Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)/Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction algorithm (MAIAC) product, from 2003 to 2016, which is indicative of forest's photosynthetic capacity. We estimated that 46% of the Brazilian Amazon biome was under severe to extreme drought in 2015/2016 as measured by the SPI, compared with 16% and 8% for the 2009/2010 and 2004/2005 droughts, respectively. The most recent drought (2015/2016) affected the largest area since the drought of 1981. Droughts tend to increase the variance of the photosynthetic capacity of Amazonian forests as based on the minimum and maximum AEVI analysis. However, the area showing a reduction in photosynthetic capacity prevails in the signal, reaching more than 400 000 km ² of forests, four orders of magnitude larger than areas with AEVI enhancement. Moreover, the intensity of the negative AEVI steadily increased from 2005 to 2016. These results indicate that during the analysed period drought impacts were being exacerbated through time. Forests in the twenty-first century are becoming more vulnerable to droughts, with larger areas intensively and negatively responding to water shortage in the region. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications’.

Amazonia is home to more than half of the world’s remaining tropical forests, playing a key role as reservoirs of carbon and biodiversity. However, whether at a slower or faster pace, continued deforestation causes forest fragmentation in this region. Thus, understanding the relationship between forest fragmentation and fire incidence and intensity in this region is critical. Here, we use MODIS Active Fire Product (MCD14ML, Collection 6) as a proxy of forest fire incidence and intensity (measured as Fire Radiative Power—FRP), and the Brazilian official Land-use and Land-cover Map to understand the relationship among deforestation, fragmentation, and forest fire on a deforestation frontier in the Brazilian Amazonia. Our results showed that forest fire incidence and intensity vary with levels of habitat loss and forest fragmentation. About 95% of active fires and the most intense ones (FRP > 500 megawatts) were found in the first kilometre from the edges in forest areas. Changes made in 2012 in the Brazilian main law regulating the conservation of forests within private properties reduced the obligation to recover illegally deforested areas, thus allowing for the maintenance of fragmented areas in the Brazilian Amazonia. Our results reinforce the need to guarantee low levels of fragmentation in the Brazilian Amazonia in order to avoid the degradation of its forests by fire and the related carbon emissions.

The strong El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event that occurred in 2015–2016 caused extreme drought in the northern Brazilian Amazon, especially in the state of Roraima, increasing fire occurrence. Here we map the extent of precipitation and fire anomalies and quantify the effects of climatic and anthropogenic drivers on fire occurrence during the 2015–2016 dry season (from December 2015 to March 2016) in the state of Roraima. To achieve these objectives we first estimated the spatial pattern of precipitation anomalies, based on long‐term data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission), and the fire anomaly, based on MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) active fire detections during the referred period. Then, we integrated climatic and anthropogenic drivers in a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model to quantify fire probability, assessing (1) the model accuracy during the 2015–2016 and the 2016–2017 dry seasons; (2) the relative importance of each predictor variable on the model predictive performance; and (3) the response curves, showing how each environmental variable affects the fire probability. Approximately 59% (132,900 km²) of the study area was exposed to precipitation anomalies ≤−1 standard deviation (SD) in January and ~48% (~106,800 km²) in March. About 38% (86,200 km²) of the study area experienced fire anomalies ≥1 SD in at least one month between December 2015 and March 2016. The distance to roads and the direct ENSO effect on fire occurrence were the two most influential variables on model predictive performance. Despite the improvement of governmental actions of fire prevention and firefighting in Roraima since the last intense ENSO event (1997–1998), we show that fire still gets out of control in the state during extreme drought events. Our results indicate that if no prevention actions are undertaken, future road network expansion and a climate‐induced increase in water stress will amplify fire occurrence in the northern Amazon, even in its humid dense forests. As an additional outcome of our analysis, we conclude that the model and the data we used may help to guide on‐the‐ground fire‐prevention actions and firefighting planning and therefore minimize fire‐related ecosystems degradation, economic losses and carbon emissions in Roraima.