Goal: This study aims to use artificial intelligence, specifically a random forest model, to predict the annual corrosion rate on FPSO offshore platforms in the oil and gas industry. Corrosion is a significant cause of equipment failure, leading to costly replacements. The random forest model, a machine learning technique, was developed using climatic and other relevant data to forecast corrosion trends based on selected variables. Design/methodology/approach: The methodology involved four steps: identifying influential factors affecting corrosion, selecting factors based on reliability and accessibility of measurements, applying the machine learning model to predict annual corrosion progression, and comparing the random forest model with other ML models. Results - The results showed that the random forest regression model successfully predicted corrosion rates, indicating an average yearly increase of 2.43% on the analyzed platforms. The main factors influencing this increase were wind speed, percentage of measured corrosion, and platform operating time. Regions with higher incidence of these factors are likely to experience higher corrosion rates, necessitating more frequent maintenance. Limitations of the investigation - The research sample consisted exclusively of 4 platforms located in the offshore region of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Thus, the results obtained must be interpreted as representative of these platforms and respective climate conditions. Practical implications – The use of data science tools to improve corrosion management allows managers to have knowledge of which areas has a greater or lesser tendency to corrode, helping to prioritize maintenance activities over time. Originality/value - This study aims to fill gaps regarding the use of random forest techniques for regression focused on predicting the rate of increase in corrosion. It offers a novel approach to assist decision-making in maintenance planning, providing insights into influential corrosion factors and facilitating more effective painting plans to preserve industrial unit integrity.

This research presents an innovative solution to optimise maintenance planning and integrity in offshore facilities, specifically regarding corrosion management. The study introduces a prototype for maintenance planning on offshore oil platforms, developed through the Design Science Research (DSR) methodology. Using a 3D CAD/CAE model, the prototype integrates machine learning models to predict corrosion progression, essential for effective maintenance strategies. Key components include damage assessment, regulatory compliance, asset criticality, and resource optimisation, collectively enabling precise and efficient anti-corrosion plans. Case studies on oil and gas platforms validate the practical application of this methodology, demonstrating reduced costs, lower risks associated with corrosion, and enhanced planning efficiency. Additionally, the research opens pathways for future advancements, such as integrating IoT technologies for real-time data collection and applying deep learning models to improve predictive accuracy. These potential extensions aim to evolve the system into a more adaptable and powerful tool for industrial maintenance, with applicability beyond offshore to other environments, including onshore facilities.

Asset maintenance management is critical in industries such as petrochemicals and oil and gas (O&G), where complex, interdependent systems heighten failure risks. Maintenance costs represent a significant portion of operational expenditures, emphasizing the need for effective risk-based strategies. A considerable gap exists in integrating uncertainty modelling into both criticality assessment and maintenance planning. Existing approaches often neglect combining expert-driven assessments with optimization models, limiting their applicability in real-world scenarios where cost-effective and risk-informed decision-making is crucial. Maintenance inefficiencies due to suboptimal asset selection result in substantial financial and safety-related consequences in asset-intensive industries. This study presents a framework integrating Reliability-Centered Maintenance (RCM) principles with fuzzy logic and decision-support methodologies to optimise maintenance portfolios for offshore O&G assets, particularly focusing on corrosion management. The framework evaluates asset criticality through comprehensive FMEA, employing MCDM and fuzzy logic to enhance maintenance planning and extend asset lifespan. A case study on offshore asset corrosion management demonstrates the framework’s effectiveness, selecting 60% of highly critical assets for maintenance, compared to 10% by current industry practices. This highlights the potential risk reduction and prevention of critical failures that might otherwise go unnoticed, providing actionable insights for asset integrity managers in the O&G sector.