Forest fires pose a significant ecological threat, particularly in the Diamer District, Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan, where climatic factors combined with human activities have resulted in severe fire incidents. The present study sought to investigate the correlation between the incidence of forest fires and critical meteorological elements, including temperature, humidity, precipitation, and wind speed, over a period of 25 years, from 1998 to 2023. We analyzed 169 recorded fire events, collectively burning approximately 109,400 hectares of forest land. Employing sophisticated machine learning algorithms, Random Forest (RF), and Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) revealed that temperature and relative humidity during the critical fire season, which spans May through July, are key factors influencing fire activity. Conversely, wind speed was found to have a negligible impact. The RF model demonstrated superior predictive accuracy compared to the GBM model, achieving an RMSE of 5803.69 and accounting for 49.47% of the variance in the burned area. This study presents a novel methodology for predictive fire risk modeling under climate change scenarios in the region, offering significant insights into fire management strategies. Our results underscore the necessity for real-time early warning systems and adaptive management strategies to mitigate the frequency and intensity of escalating forest fires driven by climate change.

This study investigated post-fire vegetation recovery in Algeria’s Tenira forest using statistical traits (PCA), RFM, and LANDIS-II spatial analysis. The dataset included satellite imagery and environmental variables such as precipitation, temperature, slope, and elevation, spanning over a decade (2010–2020). Tenira forest is composed of Mediterranean species (36.5%); the biological types encountered are dominated by therophytes (39.19%). Ninety fire outbreaks were recorded, resulting in a loss of 1400.56 ha of surface area. Following the PCA results, precipitation, temperature, slope, and elevation were the main drivers of recovery (PC1 explained 43% alone, with the first five principal components accounting for 90% of observed variance, reflecting significant environmental gradients). Based on these components, an RFM predicted the post-fire recovery with an overall accuracy of 70.5% (Cost-Sensitive Accuracy), Quantity Disagreement of 3.1%, and Allocation Disagreement of 76%, highlighting spatial misallocation as the primary source of errors. The evaluation also identified PC4 (species richness) and PC3 (elevation) as significant predictors, collectively accounting for >50% of the variation in post-fire recovery. In the spatial analysis using LANDIS-II, the growth of vegetation, mainly in mid-altitude areas, was shown to be stronger, with the species consisting of those areas being more diverse. As a result, it demonstrated the connection between species richness and recovery capability. These findings can be useful in developing a management and development strategy, as well as proposing actions for species recovery after fire, such as the construction of firebreaks or the introduction of fireproof species, to make the forest more resistant to weather changes in Mediterranean ecosystems.

PM_2.5 emissions significantly impact atmospheric environments and human health in the context of forest fires. However, research on PM_2.5 emissions from forest fires remains insufficient. This study systematically investigated PM_2.5 emission characteristics from broadleaf tree combustion through controlled experiments examining three key factors: species variation (Acer tegmentosum [AT], Acer ukurunduense [AU], Acer pictum [AP], Tilia amurensis [TA], Phellodendron amurense [PA], Ulmus davidiana [UD], Ulmus laciniata [UL], Prunus padus [PP], Prunus maackii [PM]), moisture content (0%–20%), and phenological stages (budding [A], growing [B], defoliation [C]). The results demonstrated: (1) Significant interspecies differences, with UL showing the lowest, and PM the highest emissions; (2) A unimodal moisture—emission relationship peaking at 15% moisture content across most species, while AT, UL and PM exhibited unique linear responses; (3) Distinct phenological patterns, including triphasic fluctuations during the growing and defoliation phases. The LightGBM model effectively predicted emissions (R² = 0.97), identifying species (36.2% importance) and moisture content (21.6%) as dominant factors. These findings provide critical data for wildfire emission modeling and highlight the need for species-specific parameters in air quality forecasts.

Over recent years, the intensity of forest fires has escalated, with wildfire-emitted pollutants exerting substantial impacts on the environment, ecosystems, and human well-being. This study developed a robust predictive framework to quantify wildfire-induced PM_2.5 emission factors (EFs) using seven shrub species—Corylus mandshurica, Eleutherococcus senticosus, Philadelphus schrenkii, Sorbaria sorbifolia, Syringa reticulata, Spiraea salicifolia, and Lonicera maackii. These species represent ecological cornerstones of Northeast Asian forests and hold global relevance as widely introduced or invasive taxa in North America and Europe. The novelty of this research lies in the integration of traditional statistical inference with machine learning to resolve the complex coupling between fuel traits and emissions. We conducted 1134 laboratory-controlled burns in the Liangshui National Nature Reserve, evaluating two continuous and three categorical variables. Initial screening via Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and stepwise linear regression (Step-AIC) identified the primary drivers of emissions and revealed that interspecific differences among the seven shrubs did not significantly affect the EF (p = 0.0635). To ensure statistical rigor, a log-transformation was applied to the EF data to correct for right-skewness and heteroscedasticity inherent in raw observations. Linear Mixed-effects Models (LMMs) and Gradient Boosting Machines (GBMs) were subsequently employed to quantify factor effects and capture potential nonlinearities. The LMM results consistently identified burning type and plant part as the dominant determinants: smoldering combustion and leaf components exerted strong positive effects on PM_2.5 emissions compared to flaming and branch components. Fuel load was positively correlated with emissions, while moisture content showed a significant negative effect. Notably, the model identified a significant negative quadratic effect for moisture content, indicating a non-linear inhibitory trend as moisture increases. While interspecific differences among the seven shrubs did not significantly affect EFs suggesting that physical fuel traits exert a more consistent influence than species-specific genetic backgrounds, complex interactions were captured. These include a negative synergistic effect between leaves and smoldering, and a positive interaction between moisture content and leaves that significantly amplified emissions. This research bridges the gap between physical fuel traits and chemical smoke production, providing a high-resolution tool for refining global biomass burning emission inventories and assisting international forest management in similar temperate biomes.

Wildfires threaten natural ecosystems and human livelihoods in the Tanzanian Miombo woodlands. This study presents the first locally calibrated, high-resolution wildfire susceptibility map for the Iringa region, developed using a robust machine learning framework. Multi-decadal remote sensing data (MODIS fire occurrences, 2001–2024) were integrated with climatic, topographic, vegetation, and anthropogenic variables to train four classifiers: Random Forest, XGBoost, support vector machine with RBF kernel, and Logistic Regression. A balanced dataset of 9096 fire points and an equal number of randomly sampled non-fire points was used. The data were split into 70% for training and 30% for testing. Model performance was evaluated using accuracy, area under the ROC curve (AUC), accuracy, precision, and F1-score. Random Forest achieved the highest overall performance (AUC = 0.845, accuracy = 0.759, precision = 0.789 and F1 = 0.771), followed by XGBoost (AUC = 0.828, accuracy = 0.736, precision = 0.700 and F1 = 0.757), SVM (AUC = 0.755, accuracy = 0.679, precision = 0.648 and F1 = 0.709), and Logistic Regression (AUC = 0.740, accuracy = 0.661, precision = 0.631 and F1 = 0.696). Feature importance analysis identified altitude as the most influential variable, followed by wind speed, distance to road, and NDVI. Kernel Density Estimation revealed spatially distinct fire clusters concentrated in central and southern hotspots. Temporal analysis showed that 94% of fires occur during the dry season (June–November), peaking sharply in October. These findings provide an evidence-based framework for fire prevention and sustainable management of Iringa’s Miombo woodlands.

This study tested whether fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) emissions from forest fuel combustion in the Xiao Xing’an Mountains are controlled by common or vegetation-category-specific factors. Six conifer, nine broad-leaved and seven shrub species were burned in a laboratory chamber (6966 measurements). Because the factors tested differed among categories, effects were analyzed within each category and compared across categories only for shared factors, using ANOVA, multiple linear regression, Random Forest and XGBoost. Fuel load was a primary factor in all three categories. In addition, PM_2.5 was controlled by moisture content, plant part and combustion mode in shrubs; by plant part, season and species in broad-leaved species; and by plant part and wind speed in conifers. Among the shared factors, moisture content had a clear effect only in shrubs (partial η² = 0.16 vs. ≤0.03 in trees). Smoldering tests produced 34% more PM_2.5 than flaming tests in shrubs (p < 0.001), and broad-leaved bark and branches had 89% higher PM_2.5 concentrations in April than in July. The mean shrub emission factor was 12.5 g/kg, without significant inter-species variation (p = 0.668). Under grouped five-fold cross-validation, Random Forest and XGBoost reached R² of 0.77–0.96, compared with 0.21–0.74 for linear models. The results support vegetation category as a stratification variable in regional forest-fire emission inventories.