Kai Goebel

Dr. Kai Goebel


Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

8Years (2019-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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26 October 2025 in Annual Conference of the PHM Society
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
MSMariana Salinas-Camus
Mariana Salinas-Camus
KGKai Goebel
Kai Goebel
NENick Eleftheroglou
Nick Eleftheroglou
Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) plays a key role in predicting the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of systems, which is essential for enabling decision-making for Predictive Maintenance (PdM) and operations. While most research has traditionally focused on improving the accuracy of RUL predictions, this paper argues that four essential characteristics, uncertainty, robustness, interpretability, and feasibility, are key for real-world PHM applications. This study explores these characteristics through a comparative analysis of two data-driven models (DDMs): the probabilistic Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) model and the Adaptive Hidden Semi-Markov Model (AHSMM). Deep Learning (DL) models such as the BiLSTM often achieve high prediction accuracy but struggle with uncertainty quantification and adaptability across varying operating conditions. In contrast, stochastic models like AHSMM offer stronger robustness and feasibility, performing well even with limited or noisy data. Using the C-MAPSS dataset, the models are evaluated through the lens of the four proposed characteristics. This more holistic approach clarifies each model’s strengths, limitations, and practical trade-offs in PHM settings. The findings highlight that while accuracy remains important, focusing solely on it can overlook critical factors that affect model performance in real operational environments. Balancing all four characteristics is essential for deploying reliable and effective decision-making for predictive maintenance and operations.

4 March 2019
Verified
Book Chapter
Closed access
PDF file
KGKai Goebel
Kai Goebel
BSBhaskar Saha
Bhaskar Saha

14 October 2025
Verified
Book Chapter
Closed access
PDF file
HTHalldor Broddi Thorsteinsson
Halldor Broddi Thorsteinsson
AKAnne-Lena Kampen
Anne-Lena Kampen
KGKai Goebel
Kai Goebel
MSManeesh Singh
Maneesh Singh