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Anticipating future land use and land cover (LULC) changes can improve our knowledge of the complexity of human-environment interactions that lead to transformations in the landscape. Therefore, it is key to understand these LULC changes under different scenarios and how they affect habitat quality (HQ) a key indicator for ecosystem services (ES) supply quality. This work aims to study the impacts of LULC changes under different scenarios: business as usual (A0), urbanisation (A1), land abandonment and afforestation (A2) and agriculture intensification (A3) in 2050. To simulate future LULC changes we applied the Cellular Automata (CA) method, and to assess HQ, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model was used. Spatial autocorrelation was assessed with a Moran's I index and the Getis Ord* hotspot analysis. The result showed that the LULC model calibration and validation were accurate (80%). Between 1990 and 2018 there was an increase in urban areas and forest and woodlands, which was reflected in the A0 scenario in 2050. Under the A1 scenario there was an increase in the urban area (4628 ha) compared to 2018, and in the most important cities (e.g., Vilnius, Kaunas, Klaipeda) in the scenario A2 there was an increase of 375,820 ha of woodland and forest. Finally, under the scenario A3, a large growth in cropland area (884,030 ha) was identified. HQ model had a better validation using three cover density data (r2 = 0.67), than with imperviousness (r2 = 0.26). A2 scenario showed the highest HQ and A3 scenario have the lowest HQ. The land uses of 1990, 2018, and A3 scenario had a clustered distribution while A0, A1 and A2 showed a random pattern. The results can support policy-makers by assessing the impact of future LULC changes in Lithuania.
Eduardo Gomes; Miguel Inácio; Katažyna Bogdzevič; Marius Kalinauskas; Donalda Karnauskaitė; Paulo Pereira. Future scenarios impact on land use change and habitat quality in Lithuania. Environmental Research 2021, 197, 111101 .
AMA StyleEduardo Gomes, Miguel Inácio, Katažyna Bogdzevič, Marius Kalinauskas, Donalda Karnauskaitė, Paulo Pereira. Future scenarios impact on land use change and habitat quality in Lithuania. Environmental Research. 2021; 197 ():111101.
Chicago/Turabian StyleEduardo Gomes; Miguel Inácio; Katažyna Bogdzevič; Marius Kalinauskas; Donalda Karnauskaitė; Paulo Pereira. 2021. "Future scenarios impact on land use change and habitat quality in Lithuania." Environmental Research 197, no. : 111101.
Terrestrial ecosystem services (ES) are vulnerable to land use and land cover changes (LULCC). These changes are triggered by different drivers of change (e.g., economic, social, political, environmental - climate change). Understanding the potential future LULCC is an effective way to anticipate the impacts on ES supply. In recent years, some researchers applied different spatial modelling methods to assess the potential LULCC future impacts on ES supply, but so far, no systematic review was carried out. This work aims to do a bibliographic review about future LULCC and their implications on ES supply (provisioning, regulating, and cultural services). After a rigorous bibliographic review, we identified 957 papers. However, only 79 papers meet the criteria to be used in the review. The results showed that (i) the studies have been mainly focused on Asia (55.70%) and Europe (17,72%); (ii) the most common and extensively used models to project future LULCC were cellular automata (30.86%), CLUE-S model (8.64%) and Land Change Modeler (8.64%); and (iii) the most used methods to assess future impacts on ES were the InVEST model (24.04%), and equations used in previous works (12.5%). These studies were mainly focused on measuring future impacts on provisioning (44.11%) and regulating services (43.59%). Also, most of the works lack external validation. The diversity of studies evaluated allowed to recognise gaps and outline insights into the current scientific research on this scientific domain, representing an essential contribution to the current state of knowledge by supporting both practitioners and scientists.
Eduardo Gomes; Miguel Inácio; Katažyna Bogdzevič; Marius Kalinauskas; Donalda Karnauskaitė; Paulo Pereira. Future land-use changes and its impacts on terrestrial ecosystem services: A review. Science of The Total Environment 2021, 781, 146716 .
AMA StyleEduardo Gomes, Miguel Inácio, Katažyna Bogdzevič, Marius Kalinauskas, Donalda Karnauskaitė, Paulo Pereira. Future land-use changes and its impacts on terrestrial ecosystem services: A review. Science of The Total Environment. 2021; 781 ():146716.
Chicago/Turabian StyleEduardo Gomes; Miguel Inácio; Katažyna Bogdzevič; Marius Kalinauskas; Donalda Karnauskaitė; Paulo Pereira. 2021. "Future land-use changes and its impacts on terrestrial ecosystem services: A review." Science of The Total Environment 781, no. : 146716.
Coastal flooding has been historically mitigated through engineered artificial (grey) infrastructures such as breakwaters, dikes, and sea walls. However, these structures have a pervasive long-term impact on coastal ecosystems (e.g. sediment transport disruption), and require constant maintenance, and have little resilience to climate change (e.g. hurricanes, sea-level rise) related events. Grey infrastructures failed to mitigate the effects of coastal floods, and the damages were significantly less in areas where healthy coastal ecosystems were present. This highlighted the role and contribution of coastal habitats to mitigate coastal floods and adapt to new conditions. The inefficiency of grey infrastructure to mitigate the impact of extreme events and following ecosystem-based management led to the development of the Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) concept. In the context of coastal flooding mitigation, to reduce the effects of storm surges, wave action, and erosion, NSB can be designed using (1) natural solutions (e.g., the creation of marine protected areas), (2) soft engineering and ecological restoration practices (e.g., mangrove plantation), and (3) hybrid solutions, which integrates natural and grey infrastructures (e.g. artificial reefs). NBS integrate multiple international environmental agendas, for their capacity to provide multiple co-benefits (e.g. recreation, fisheries). NBS are also key for supporting other agendas and global objectives: the Sustainable Development Goals (e.g. SDG14), Green/Blue economy, coastal resilient and climate-adapted coastal communities, biodiversity targets of the Convention for Biological Diversity and Circular Economy.
“Lithuanian National Ecosystem Services Assessment and Mapping (LINESAM)” No. 09.3.3-LMT-K-712-01-0104 is funded by the European Social Fund according to the activity “Improvement of researchers’ qualification by implementing world-class R&D projects” of Measure No. 09.3.3-LMT-K-712.
Miguel Inácio; Donalda Karnauskaitė; Katažyna Mikša; Marius Kalinauskas; Eduardo Gomes; Paulo Pereira. The socio-ecologic aspects of nature-based solutions for coastal flooding mitigation. 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleMiguel Inácio, Donalda Karnauskaitė, Katažyna Mikša, Marius Kalinauskas, Eduardo Gomes, Paulo Pereira. The socio-ecologic aspects of nature-based solutions for coastal flooding mitigation. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMiguel Inácio; Donalda Karnauskaitė; Katažyna Mikša; Marius Kalinauskas; Eduardo Gomes; Paulo Pereira. 2021. "The socio-ecologic aspects of nature-based solutions for coastal flooding mitigation." , no. : 1.
Abstract
Human activity is directly responsible for land use and land cover changes, affecting different ecosystem services. Thus, from the perspective of land use management is critical to project potential future land-use changes. This study aimed: (i) to detect possible changes in land-use structure in response to different four scenarios, namely: business as usual, urbanization, afforestation and land abandonment, and agricultural intensification scenario; and (ii) to measure the landscape habitat quality (an ecosystem services proxy) according to those projected futures. We selected as case study Lithuania due to the potential future increased human pressures on the landscape, and due to the high landscape value of this territory. The projected year was 2050, and we used the Cellular Automata method (applying the Dinamica EGO software) to project future land-use changes, and the InVEST model to assess the habitat quality. The land-use scenarios outcomes were validated using a fuzzy comparison function, and 80% of accuracy was achieved (comparing a simulated land use map of 2018, and the observed map for the same year). The results showed that the agricultural intensification scenario represents the greatest predicted landscape deterioration (from 0.71 in 2018 to 0.64). In the urbanization scenario, the highest landscape degradation prediction is identified around the most important cities (Vilnius, Kaunas, and Klaipėda). In the opposite direction, the afforestation and land abandonment scenario show the highest improvement on the habitat quality, from 0.71 in 2018 to 0.74.
Acknowledgements
“Lithuanian National Ecosystem Services Assessment and Mapping (LINESAM)” No. 09.3.3-LMT-K-712-01-0104 is funded by the European Social Fund according to the activity “Improvement of researchers’ qualification by implementing world-class R&D projects” of Measure No. 09.3.3-LMT-K-712.
Paulo Pereira; Eduardo Gomes; Miguel Inacio; Katarzyna Bogdzevič; Donalda Karnauskaite; Marius Kalinauskas. Mapping and assessment of future land use change impacts on habitat quality in Lithuania. 2021, 1 .
AMA StylePaulo Pereira, Eduardo Gomes, Miguel Inacio, Katarzyna Bogdzevič, Donalda Karnauskaite, Marius Kalinauskas. Mapping and assessment of future land use change impacts on habitat quality in Lithuania. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StylePaulo Pereira; Eduardo Gomes; Miguel Inacio; Katarzyna Bogdzevič; Donalda Karnauskaite; Marius Kalinauskas. 2021. "Mapping and assessment of future land use change impacts on habitat quality in Lithuania." , no. : 1.
Despite its importance in supporting the global economy and to accommodate an ever-growing population at the coast, many of the coastal ecosystems such as mangroves, reefs, seagrass meadows, salt marshes and dunes had in the recent years an accentuated decrease in their coverage. The loss of coastal ecosystems, among other problems, leads to the loss of natural capacity for flood mitigation and coastal erosion. Since a considerable share of the coastal population is living in flood-prone areas, the loss of capacity of the ecosystems to mitigate the impacts of floods and coastal erosion can increase the vulnerability to natural hazards such as storm surges, hurricanes and typhoons. This is especially relevant in a context of increasing sea-level rise and intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, both increasing the risk to lose lives and assets. Coastal flood mitigation has been done primarily through the use of hard grey infrastructures. However, these types of structures can have long-term impacts on coastal ecosystems, require continuous maintenance and, in the face of extreme events, may represent an inefficient way to prevent coastal degradation. This called the attention of scientists and decision-makers towards the role of nature to mitigate the impacts of coastal floods through nature-based solutions (NBS). NBS, under the framework of ecosystem-based management, are interventions that aim to reduce the impacts of coastal flooding and erosion and simultaneously enhance ecosystems, biodiversity and natural resources. NBS can use (1) natural solutions (e.g. marine protected areas), (2) soft engineering and ecological restoration (e.g. beach nourishment) and (3) hybrid solutions, which integrate natural and grey infrastructures. Recently, NBS are gaining popularity and are part of coastal management strategies in many countries. Despite their efficiency, it is still a new practice, and therefore concerns are raised regarding their environmental and anthropogenic impacts. Also, there are some drawbacks and pitfalls that need to be overcome to increase NBS implementation. In this chapter we make an overview on the need for NBS for coastal flood mitigation, its implementation in a worldwide context, their impacts on the coastal social ecological economics systems, drawbacks and opportunities to improve their acceptance.
Miguel Inácio; Donalda Karnauskaitė; Katažyna Mikša; Eduardo Gomes; Marius Kalinauskas; Paulo Pereira. Nature-Based Solutions to Mitigate Coastal Floods and Associated Socioecological Impacts. The Handbook of Environmental Chemistry 2020, 1 -24.
AMA StyleMiguel Inácio, Donalda Karnauskaitė, Katažyna Mikša, Eduardo Gomes, Marius Kalinauskas, Paulo Pereira. Nature-Based Solutions to Mitigate Coastal Floods and Associated Socioecological Impacts. The Handbook of Environmental Chemistry. 2020; ():1-24.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMiguel Inácio; Donalda Karnauskaitė; Katažyna Mikša; Eduardo Gomes; Marius Kalinauskas; Paulo Pereira. 2020. "Nature-Based Solutions to Mitigate Coastal Floods and Associated Socioecological Impacts." The Handbook of Environmental Chemistry , no. : 1-24.
Urban development is the result of the interaction between anthropogenic and environmental dimensions. From the perspective of its density, it ranges from high-density populated areas, associated with large cities that concentrate the main economic and social thrust of societies, to low-density populated areas (e.g., rural areas, small–medium-sized cities). Against the backdrop of the new technological and environmental era, this commentary offers insights on how to support spatial planning policies for sustainable urban growth in low-density areas. We propose the integration of technological drivers such as Internet networks, telecommuting, distance-learning education, the use of electric cars, etc. into the complex spatial models to project and thus to identify the best locations for urban development in low-density areas. This understanding can help to mitigate the disparities between high- and low-density populated areas, and to reduce the inequality among regions as promoted in the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goals.
Eduardo Gomes. Sustainable Population Growth in Low-Density Areas in a New Technological Era: Prospective Thinking on How to Support Planning Policies Using Complex Spatial Models. Land 2020, 9, 221 .
AMA StyleEduardo Gomes. Sustainable Population Growth in Low-Density Areas in a New Technological Era: Prospective Thinking on How to Support Planning Policies Using Complex Spatial Models. Land. 2020; 9 (7):221.
Chicago/Turabian StyleEduardo Gomes. 2020. "Sustainable Population Growth in Low-Density Areas in a New Technological Era: Prospective Thinking on How to Support Planning Policies Using Complex Spatial Models." Land 9, no. 7: 221.
Future land use/cover change (LUCC) analysis has been increasingly applied to spatial planning instruments in the last few years. Nevertheless, stakeholder participation in the land use modelling process and analysis is still low. This paper describes a methodology engaging stakeholders (from the land use planning, agriculture, and forest sectors) in the building and assessment of future LUCC scenarios. We selected as case study the Torres Vedras Municipality (Portugal), a peri-urban region near Lisbon. Our analysis encompasses a participatory workshop to analyse LUCC model outcomes, based on farmer LUCC intentions, for the following scenarios: A0 - current social and economic trend (Business as Usual); A1 - regional food security; A2 - climate change; and B0 - farming under urban pressure. This analysis allowed local stakeholders to develop and discuss their own views on the most plausible future LUCC for the following land use classes: artificial surfaces, non-irrigated arable land, permanently irrigated land, permanent crops and heterogeneous agricultural land, pastures, forest and semi-natural areas, and water bodies and wetlands. Subsequently, we spatialized these LUCC views into a hybrid model (Cellular Automata - Geographic Information Systems), identifying the most suitable land conversion areas. We refer to this model, implemented in NetLogo, as the stakeholder-LUCC model. The results presented in this paper model where, when, why, and what conversions may occur in the future in regard to stakeholders' points of view. These outcomes can better enable decision-makers to perform land use planning more efficiently and develop measures to prevent undesirable futures, particularly in extreme events such as scenarios of food security, climate change, and/or farming under pressure.
Eduardo Gomes; Arnaud Banos; Patrícia Abrantes; Jorge Rocha; Markus Schläpfer. Future land use changes in a peri-urban context: Local stakeholder views. Science of The Total Environment 2020, 718, 137381 .
AMA StyleEduardo Gomes, Arnaud Banos, Patrícia Abrantes, Jorge Rocha, Markus Schläpfer. Future land use changes in a peri-urban context: Local stakeholder views. Science of The Total Environment. 2020; 718 ():137381.
Chicago/Turabian StyleEduardo Gomes; Arnaud Banos; Patrícia Abrantes; Jorge Rocha; Markus Schläpfer. 2020. "Future land use changes in a peri-urban context: Local stakeholder views." Science of The Total Environment 718, no. : 137381.
Different mechanisms drive land use and land cover changes (LUCC). This paper presents an exploratory analysis aimed at understanding the complex dynamics of LUCC based on farmers’ intentions when they are faced with four scenarios with the time horizon of 2025: (1) A0 – current social and economic trend; (2) A1 – intensified agricultural production; (3) A2 – reduced agricultural production; and (4) B0 - increasing demand for urban development. LUCC models are applied to a Torres Vedras (Portugal) case study. This territory is located in a peri-urban area near Lisbon dominated by forest and agricultural land, which has been suffering considerable urban pressure in the last decades. Farmers — major agents of agricultural land use change — were interviewed to obtain their LUCC intentions according to the scenarios studied. To model LUCC a Cellular automata-Markov chain approach was applied. Our results suggest that significant LUCC will occur depending on their intentions in the different scenarios. The highlights are: (1) the highest growth in permanently irrigated land in the A1 scenario; (2) the biggest drop in non-irrigated arable land, and the highest growth in forest in the A2 scenario; and (3) the greatest urban growth was recognized in the B0 scenario. To verify if the fitting simulations performed well, techniques to measure agreement and quantity-allocation disagreements were applied.These outcomes could provide decision-makers with the capacity to observe different possible futures in ‘what if’ scenarios, allowing them to anticipate future uncertainties, and consequently allowing them the possibility to choose the more desirable future.
Eduardo Gomes; Patrícia Abrantes; Arnaud Banos; Jorge Rocha. Modelling future land use scenarios based on farmers’ intentions and a cellular automata approach. Land Use Policy 2019, 85, 142 -154.
AMA StyleEduardo Gomes, Patrícia Abrantes, Arnaud Banos, Jorge Rocha. Modelling future land use scenarios based on farmers’ intentions and a cellular automata approach. Land Use Policy. 2019; 85 ():142-154.
Chicago/Turabian StyleEduardo Gomes; Patrícia Abrantes; Arnaud Banos; Jorge Rocha. 2019. "Modelling future land use scenarios based on farmers’ intentions and a cellular automata approach." Land Use Policy 85, no. : 142-154.
This paper identifies agricultural areas under urban pressure based on farmers' LUCC intentions for two scenarios. The findings reveal the importance of incorporate the farmers' future LUCC into the spatial planning strategies. We identified policy guidance to decision-makers to monitor LUCC.
Eduardo Gomes; Patrícia Abrantes; Arnaud Banos; Jorge Rocha; Michael Buxton. Farming under urban pressure: Farmers' land use and land cover change intentions. Applied Geography 2018, 102, 58 -70.
AMA StyleEduardo Gomes, Patrícia Abrantes, Arnaud Banos, Jorge Rocha, Michael Buxton. Farming under urban pressure: Farmers' land use and land cover change intentions. Applied Geography. 2018; 102 ():58-70.
Chicago/Turabian StyleEduardo Gomes; Patrícia Abrantes; Arnaud Banos; Jorge Rocha; Michael Buxton. 2018. "Farming under urban pressure: Farmers' land use and land cover change intentions." Applied Geography 102, no. : 58-70.
The fragmentation of agricultural land is influenced by political, economic, social, ecological and environmental factors, which affect its dynamics, patterns, structures, and functions. However, a deep analysis aimed at examining agricultural land fragmentation and its driving forces, and predicting future agricultural land fragmentation is needed. We investigated the degree of fragmentation in a case study in Torres Vedras municipality (Portugal). This territory has experienced significant agricultural land use changes in the last twenty years, mainly in the form of agricultural intensification and land fragmentation. The purposes of the study are: (1) to identify different degrees of agricultural land fragmentation; (2) to analyse and recognize underlying driving forces; (3) to identify the effect of scale; (4) and to predict agricultural land fragmentation for 2025 in a business as usual scenario. This approach concentrates on a cluster analysis to define the agricultural land fragmentation and a multi-layer perceptron to project agricultural land fragmentation. The results indicate that a 5 by 5 km scale of analysis is more efficient than 2 by 2 km to identify the most influential driving forces, in which human activities are one of the main causes of agricultural land fragmentation. In addition, the results also predict that agricultural land fragmentation will increase in 2025. These outcomes should be used to forecast agricultural land fragmentation and to reduce negative impacts.
Eduardo Gomes; Arnaud Banos; Patrícia Abrantes; Jorge Rocha; Søren Bech Pilgaard Kristensen; Anne Busck. Agricultural land fragmentation analysis in a peri-urban context: From the past into the future. Ecological Indicators 2018, 97, 380 -388.
AMA StyleEduardo Gomes, Arnaud Banos, Patrícia Abrantes, Jorge Rocha, Søren Bech Pilgaard Kristensen, Anne Busck. Agricultural land fragmentation analysis in a peri-urban context: From the past into the future. Ecological Indicators. 2018; 97 ():380-388.
Chicago/Turabian StyleEduardo Gomes; Arnaud Banos; Patrícia Abrantes; Jorge Rocha; Søren Bech Pilgaard Kristensen; Anne Busck. 2018. "Agricultural land fragmentation analysis in a peri-urban context: From the past into the future." Ecological Indicators 97, no. : 380-388.
Land-Use/Cover Change (LUCC) reacts to demographic pressures, economic trends, or improved transport networks. Urban growth with implications on LUCC patterns can be measured using a diversity of methods. Our study derives from Tobler’s first law of geography: ‘everything is related to everything else, but near things are more related than distant ones’. We identified and measured the influence of neighbouring distance on urban growth from the edge of existing urban areas. For that, we have developed a method, built using the NetLogo software tool, which we called Land-use chAnge and Neighbouring Distance (LAND). We selected Torres Vedras (Portugal) to conduct our case study due to its increasing urban development in the past few years. The periods of analysis were 1995–2010, 1995–2007, and 2007–2010. The results have shown the influence and the effect of strong spatial correlation between the proximity of existing artificial surfaces and the emergence of new ones. The understanding of the patterns of urban growth is helpful to plan forward land developments. This method can be used to write guidelines for decision makers to monitor urban expansion and define spatial planning priorities.
Eduardo Gomes; Arnaud Banos; Patricia Abrantes; Jorge Rocha. Assessing the Effect of Spatial Proximity on Urban Growth. Sustainability 2018, 10, 1308 .
AMA StyleEduardo Gomes, Arnaud Banos, Patricia Abrantes, Jorge Rocha. Assessing the Effect of Spatial Proximity on Urban Growth. Sustainability. 2018; 10 (5):1308.
Chicago/Turabian StyleEduardo Gomes; Arnaud Banos; Patricia Abrantes; Jorge Rocha. 2018. "Assessing the Effect of Spatial Proximity on Urban Growth." Sustainability 10, no. 5: 1308.
Paulo Morgado; Patrícia Abrantes; Eduardo Gomes. GIS Graph Tool for Modeling: Urban–Rural Relationships. Comprehensive Geographic Information Systems 2018, 446 -462.
AMA StylePaulo Morgado, Patrícia Abrantes, Eduardo Gomes. GIS Graph Tool for Modeling: Urban–Rural Relationships. Comprehensive Geographic Information Systems. 2018; ():446-462.
Chicago/Turabian StylePaulo Morgado; Patrícia Abrantes; Eduardo Gomes. 2018. "GIS Graph Tool for Modeling: Urban–Rural Relationships." Comprehensive Geographic Information Systems , no. : 446-462.
Authors: Jorge Rocha, Inês Boavida-Portugal and Eduardo Gomes
Jorge Rocha; Inês Boavida-Portugal; Eduardo Gomes. Introductory Chapter: Multi-Agent Systems. Multi-agent Systems 2017, 1 .
AMA StyleJorge Rocha, Inês Boavida-Portugal, Eduardo Gomes. Introductory Chapter: Multi-Agent Systems. Multi-agent Systems. 2017; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJorge Rocha; Inês Boavida-Portugal; Eduardo Gomes. 2017. "Introductory Chapter: Multi-Agent Systems." Multi-agent Systems , no. : 1.
The conceptual and methodological debate on urban form has grown in the last decades to recognize that social, economic, demographic and political processes can contribute to the development of new urban forms, especially those related to urban sprawl, as well as to find alternative methodologies for measuring them. Spatial metrics derived from landscape ecology arise as principal indicators to measure urban form. This paper proposes a typology of the urban occupation of Portuguese municipalities. It uses land use/cover data from 1990 and 2006 to extract built-up areas, and it presents five spatial metrics alongside seventeen statistical indicators from 1991 to 2011 most commonly used in the literature to characterize urban occupation. It uses a self-organising map as a visual tool to identify trends and relationships among variables and to cluster municipalities. Based on the self-organising map’s visual clustering, six types of urban occupation of Portuguese municipalities are proposed. In addition, the paper discusses the added value of using indicators that describe both the patterns and the characteristics of the municipalities for making spatial planning decisions in Portugal. The observed results show that spatial metrics are particularly adequate for measuring peri-urban municipalities (urban sprawl areas). These results represent the first multidimensional and systematic analysis of Portuguese urban occupation and they can be the first step in the integration of spatial metrics as indicators that are suitable for the analysis of spatial planning, and also for comparative purposes at a broader geographical scale.
Patrícia Abrantes; Jorge Rocha; Eduarda Marques Da Costa; Eduardo Gomes; Paulo Morgado; Nuno Costa. Modelling urban form: A multidimensional typology of urban occupation for spatial analysis. Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science 2017, 46, 47 -65.
AMA StylePatrícia Abrantes, Jorge Rocha, Eduarda Marques Da Costa, Eduardo Gomes, Paulo Morgado, Nuno Costa. Modelling urban form: A multidimensional typology of urban occupation for spatial analysis. Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science. 2017; 46 (1):47-65.
Chicago/Turabian StylePatrícia Abrantes; Jorge Rocha; Eduarda Marques Da Costa; Eduardo Gomes; Paulo Morgado; Nuno Costa. 2017. "Modelling urban form: A multidimensional typology of urban occupation for spatial analysis." Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science 46, no. 1: 47-65.
Malaria is currently one of the world´s major health problems. About a half-million deaths are recorded every year. In Portugal, malaria cases were significantly high until the end of the 1950s but the disease was considered eliminated in 1973. In the past few years, endemic malaria cases have been recorded in some European countries. With the increasing human mobility from countries with endemic malaria to Portugal, there is concern about the resurgence of this disease in the country. Here, we model and map the risk of malaria transmission for mainland Portugal, considering 3 different scenarios of existing imported infections. This risk assessment resulted from entomological studies on An. atroparvus, the only known mosquito capable of transmitting malaria in the study area. We used the malariogenic potential (determined by receptivity, infectivity and vulnerability) applied over geospatial data sets to estimate spatial variation in malaria risk. The results suggest that the risk exists, and the hotspots are concentrated in the northeast region of the country and in the upper and lower Alentejo regions.
Eduardo Gomes; César Capinha; Jorge Rocha; Carla Sousa. Mapping Risk of Malaria Transmission in Mainland Portugal Using a Mathematical Modelling Approach. PLOS ONE 2016, 11, e0164788 .
AMA StyleEduardo Gomes, César Capinha, Jorge Rocha, Carla Sousa. Mapping Risk of Malaria Transmission in Mainland Portugal Using a Mathematical Modelling Approach. PLOS ONE. 2016; 11 (11):e0164788.
Chicago/Turabian StyleEduardo Gomes; César Capinha; Jorge Rocha; Carla Sousa. 2016. "Mapping Risk of Malaria Transmission in Mainland Portugal Using a Mathematical Modelling Approach." PLOS ONE 11, no. 11: e0164788.
Dot maps are one of the best ways to visualize absolute values in thematic cartography. Dots represent quantitative data on a map. Population is often used in this type of representation. This paper presents a population dot density map for the year 2011 on two scales: (1) for mainland Portugal, and (2) for the Lisbon and Oporto regions. We have used dots with constant values and sizes at the most detailed statistical level (i.e. statistical subsection) for localities with less than 5000 inhabitants, and proportional circles for localities with more than 5000 inhabitants. These two scales of analysis coupled with two cartographic representation techniques used on a single map allow for a clear reading of the distribution of population.
Eduardo Gomes. Creating a Dot Density Map: Resident Population in Mainland Portugal. The Cartographic Journal 2016, 54, 1 -6.
AMA StyleEduardo Gomes. Creating a Dot Density Map: Resident Population in Mainland Portugal. The Cartographic Journal. 2016; 54 (2):1-6.
Chicago/Turabian StyleEduardo Gomes. 2016. "Creating a Dot Density Map: Resident Population in Mainland Portugal." The Cartographic Journal 54, no. 2: 1-6.
In the past few decades, urbanisation has become a major phenomenon in European cities, thus representing one of the key human land cover changes with socio-economic and environmental impacts. In the Lisbon metropolitan region it is estimated that 17% of natural and farmland have been transformed into artificial areas. Since the end of 1990s, specific EU guidelines have been issued to contain urban sprawl and preserve agricultural land. Spatial planning in Portugal obviously is integrating these assumptions into the statutory land-use master plans. But what is the performance of this land use planning system regarding land cover evolution itself? Based on the Lisbon metropolitan region (LMR), one of the major areas of urban growth in Portugal, we examine spatio-temporal land cover patterns between 1990 and 2007 by integrating cross-matrix analysis, spatial metrics, and gradient analysis. Additionally, we overlay these land cover dynamics with municipal master plans that regulate land development in order to assess the compliance levels of this land-use regulatory system. Results indicate that: artificial areas are growing by coalescence and/or by scattered development along an urban–rural gradient; agricultural land is reducing and fragmentation is increasing to enlarge peri-urban spaces; there are high levels of conversion of agricultural land into urban land in protected areas, thus showing a lack of compliance to the land use regulatory system visible in the existing gaps between the original land-use assignments of the master plan and the actual developments.
Patrícia Abrantes; Inês Fontes; Eduardo Gomes; Jorge Rocha. Compliance of land cover changes with municipal land use planning: Evidence from the Lisbon metropolitan region (1990–2007). Land Use Policy 2016, 51, 120 -134.
AMA StylePatrícia Abrantes, Inês Fontes, Eduardo Gomes, Jorge Rocha. Compliance of land cover changes with municipal land use planning: Evidence from the Lisbon metropolitan region (1990–2007). Land Use Policy. 2016; 51 ():120-134.
Chicago/Turabian StylePatrícia Abrantes; Inês Fontes; Eduardo Gomes; Jorge Rocha. 2016. "Compliance of land cover changes with municipal land use planning: Evidence from the Lisbon metropolitan region (1990–2007)." Land Use Policy 51, no. : 120-134.
In this paper, we demonstrate the use of scenario building in the context of contested land use visions. We examine a small coastal community located 20 kms south of Lisbon. In Almada e Trafaria/Costa da Caparica, competing stakeholders such as central government, local government, environmental NGO's and private companies each have competing development visions for the area. These include the development of recreation and leisure facilities, a container terminal and the re-naturalization of unused land. We illustrate the added value of the GIS-ANN tool in steering negotiations between these different visions and the potential of a scenario building web application as a tool for problem solving. The emergence of user-created GIS-based web content in Planning has transformed passive users and consumers of geospatial information into active contributors to the development of spatial visions of the future. It allows stakeholders to gauge alternative future land uses thus making planning and decisionmaking processes potentially more transparent and democratic. In this paper, we detail a new method that enhances GIS-web-based public participation. We build on a combination of GIS basic capabilities and the data mining methods of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), namely Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) packaged in a friendly (GUI) user interface that runs on the Google Earth platform. Users will be able to articulate different spatial development scenarios for a specific area, to conduct sensitivity analyses for various competing scenarios and to explore causal connections between them.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio
Paulo Morgado; Eduardo Gomes; Nuno Marques da Costa. Competing visions? Simulating alternative coastal futures using a GIS-ANN web application. Ocean & Coastal Management 2014, 101, 79 -88.
AMA StylePaulo Morgado, Eduardo Gomes, Nuno Marques da Costa. Competing visions? Simulating alternative coastal futures using a GIS-ANN web application. Ocean & Coastal Management. 2014; 101 ():79-88.
Chicago/Turabian StylePaulo Morgado; Eduardo Gomes; Nuno Marques da Costa. 2014. "Competing visions? Simulating alternative coastal futures using a GIS-ANN web application." Ocean & Coastal Management 101, no. : 79-88.
Eduardo Gomes; César Capinha; Jose Antonio Tenedorio; Jorge Rocha; A. Paulo G. Almeida; Virgilio E. Do Rosario; Carla A. Sousa; Norberto Santos; Lúcio Cunha. Modelação geográfica em Sig do risco de re-emergência de malária em Portugal Continental. Trunfos de uma Geografia Activa: desenvolvimento local, ambiente, ordenamento e tecnologia 2011, 585 -591.
AMA StyleEduardo Gomes, César Capinha, Jose Antonio Tenedorio, Jorge Rocha, A. Paulo G. Almeida, Virgilio E. Do Rosario, Carla A. Sousa, Norberto Santos, Lúcio Cunha. Modelação geográfica em Sig do risco de re-emergência de malária em Portugal Continental. Trunfos de uma Geografia Activa: desenvolvimento local, ambiente, ordenamento e tecnologia. 2011; ():585-591.
Chicago/Turabian StyleEduardo Gomes; César Capinha; Jose Antonio Tenedorio; Jorge Rocha; A. Paulo G. Almeida; Virgilio E. Do Rosario; Carla A. Sousa; Norberto Santos; Lúcio Cunha. 2011. "Modelação geográfica em Sig do risco de re-emergência de malária em Portugal Continental." Trunfos de uma Geografia Activa: desenvolvimento local, ambiente, ordenamento e tecnologia , no. : 585-591.
Malaria was a major health problem in the first half of the 20th Century in mainland Portugal. Nowadays, although the disease is no longer endemic, there is still the risk of future endemic infections due to the continuous occurrence of imported cases and the possibility of transmission in the country by Anopheles atroparvus Van Thiel, 1927. Since vector abundance constitute one of the foremost factors in malaria transmission, we have created several habitat suitability models to describe this vector species' current distribution. Three different correlative models; namely (i) a multilayer perceptron artificial neural network (MLP-ANN); (ii) binary logistic regression (BLR); and (iii) Mahalanobis distance were used to combine the species records with a set of five environmental predictors. Kappa coefficient values from k-fold cross-validation records showed that binary logistic regression produced the best predictions, while the other two models also produced acceptable results. Therefore, in order to reduce uncertainty, the three suitability models were combined. The resulting model identified high suitability for An. atroparvus in the majority of the country with exception of the northern and central coastal areas. Malaria distribution during the last endemic period in the country was also compared with the combined suitability model, and a high degree of spatial agreement was obtained (kappa = 0.62). It was concluded that habitat suitability for malaria vectors can constitute valuable information on the assessment of several spatial attributes of the disease. In addition, the results suggest that the spatial distribution of An. atroparvus in the country remains very similar to the one known about seven decades ago.
César Capinha; Eduardo Gomes; Eusébio Reis; Jorge Rocha; Carla Sousa; V. E. Do Rosário; A. Paulo Almeida. Present habitat suitability for Anopheles atroparvus (Diptera, Culicidae) and its coincidence with former malaria areas in mainland Portugal. Geospatial Health 2009, 3, 177 .
AMA StyleCésar Capinha, Eduardo Gomes, Eusébio Reis, Jorge Rocha, Carla Sousa, V. E. Do Rosário, A. Paulo Almeida. Present habitat suitability for Anopheles atroparvus (Diptera, Culicidae) and its coincidence with former malaria areas in mainland Portugal. Geospatial Health. 2009; 3 (2):177.
Chicago/Turabian StyleCésar Capinha; Eduardo Gomes; Eusébio Reis; Jorge Rocha; Carla Sousa; V. E. Do Rosário; A. Paulo Almeida. 2009. "Present habitat suitability for Anopheles atroparvus (Diptera, Culicidae) and its coincidence with former malaria areas in mainland Portugal." Geospatial Health 3, no. 2: 177.