Habitats provide essential space for migratory birds to survive and reproduce. Identifying potential habitats in annual cycle stages and their influencing factors is indispensable for conservation along the flyway. In this study, we obtained satellite tracking of eight swan geese (Anser cygnoides) wintering at Poyang Lake (28°57′4.2″, 116°21′53.36″) from 2019 to 2020. Using the Maximum Entropy species distribution model, we investigated the potential habitats distribution of the swan geese during their migration cycle. We analyzed the relative contribution of various environmental factors to habitat suitability and conservation status for each potential habitat along the flyway. Our results show that the primary wintering grounds of swan geese are located in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Stopover sites were widely distributed, mainly in the Bohai Rim, the middle reaches of the Yellow River, and the Northeast Plain, and extended westward to Inner Mongolia and Mongolia. Breeding grounds are mainly in Inner Mongolia and eastern Mongolia, while some are scattered in Mongolia’s central and western. The contribution rates of major environmental factors are different in breeding grounds, stopover sites, and wintering grounds. Breeding grounds were influenced by slope, elevation, and temperature. Slope, human footprint index, and temperature were the main factors that affected stopover sites. Wintering grounds were determined by land use, elevation, and precipitation. The conservation status of habitats is 9.6% for breeding grounds, 9.2% for wintering grounds, and 5.3% for stopover sites. Our findings thus provide a critically international assessment of potential habitats protection for geese species on the East Asian Flyway.

Migratory flyways sustain waterbird populations by linking critical habitats across their annual cycle. However, stage-specific impacts of climate change on these habitats remain poorly understood. We integrated species distribution models with annual migration data from 30 Greater White-fronted Geese (Anser albifrons frontalis) to assess changes in habitat suitability, distributional shifts, and suitability fluctuations across breeding, stopover, and wintering stages under mid-century (2040–2060) climate scenarios. Suitability fluctuations were quantified as the coefficient of variation ($C_V$) in habitat suitability between current and future projections. Projected habitat responses varied markedly across stages: breeding areas contracted by 29.9%, wintering areas expanded by 62.7%, and stopover sites showed minimal net change. Centroids of all habitats are projected to shift northward by mean distances of 125–492 km under future climate scenarios. Breeding habitats exhibited the greatest suitability fluctuations ($C_V=3$0–45; ~50% area affected under SSP585), followed by stopover and wintering grounds ($C_V$ ≈ 11), with 35.8% and 23.3% of their areas falling within high-fluctuation zones. These findings highlight the urgent need to prioritize breeding habitats, implement stage-specific conservation strategies, and enhance international cooperation to ensure the protection of waterbirds along the East Asian Flyway.