Land use and cover change (LUCC) is an important issue affecting the global environment, climate change, and sustainable development. Detecting and predicting LUCC, a dynamic process, and its driving factors will help in formulating effective land use and planning policy suitable for local conditions, thus supporting local socioeconomic development and global environmental protection. In this study, taking Gansu Province as a case study example, we explored the LUCC pattern and its driving mechanism from 1980 to 2018, and predicted land use and cover in 2030 using the integrated LCM (Logistic-Cellular Automata-Markov chain) model and data from satellite remote sensing. The results suggest that the LUCC pattern was more reasonable in the second stage (2005 to 2018) compared with that in the first stage (1980 to 2005). This was because a large area of green lands was protected by ecological engineering in the second stage. From 1980 to 2018, in general, natural factors were the main force influencing changes in land use and cover in Gansu, while the effects of socioeconomic factors were not significant because of the slow development of economy. Landscape indices analysis indicated that predicted land use and cover in 2030 under the ecological protection scenario would be more favorable than under the historical trend scenario. Besides, results from the present study suggested that LUCC in arid and semiarid area could be well detected by the LCM model. This study would hopefully provide theoretical instructions for future land use planning and management, as well as a new methodology reference for LUCC analysis in arid and semiarid regions.

Accounting for one quarter of China’s land area, the endorheic Shiyang River basin is a vast semi-arid to arid region in China’s northwest. Exploring the impact of changes in land use on this arid area’s carbon budget under global warming is a key component to global climate change research. Variation in the region’s soil carbon storage due to land use changes occurring between 1973 and 2012 was estimated. The results show that land use change has a significant impact on the soil carbon budget, with soil carbon storage having decreased by 3.89 Tg between 1973 and 2012. Grassland stored the greatest amount of soil carbon (114.34 Mg ha⁻¹), whereas considerably lower carbon storage occurred in woodland (58.53 Mg ha⁻¹), cropland (26.75 Mg ha⁻¹) and unused land (13.47 Mg ha⁻¹). Grasslands transformed into cropland, and woodlands degraded into grassland have substantially reduced soil carbon storage, suggesting that measures should be adopted to reverse this trend to improve soil productivity.

The Returning Farmland to Forest Program (RFFP) was implemented in China in 1999 with the goal of supporting environmental restoration by returning significant areas of cultivated land to forest. While afforestation supports long-term ecosystem services like carbon sequestration and the reduction of soil and water loss, it also reduces the amount of available arable land, putting financial pressure on those who depend on it for their livelihoods. In an effort to balance both ecological and economic benefits, regional governments offer financial compensation to farmers to offset these pressures in the form of a dollar amount per hectare of reforested land. The current study explores participants’ willingness to accept pay (WTA), along with the difference between the offered per hectare compensation and the amount deemed acceptable by RFFP participants in the region. To this end, 92 households from the representative afforestation area were surveyed in Huining County, Gansu Province, China - an area of strategic ecological importance in the Loess Plateau. The results showed 12.0% of the surveyed respondents to be satisfied with the current compensation policy, while 88.0% of respondents were not. The respondents’ lower and upper WTA limits were $221/ha/year and $1331/ha/year, respectively, with an average WTA of $777/ha/year. The compensation that respondents would be most willing to accept was distributed in the $444–888/ha/year and the $889–1331/ha/year ranges, accounting for 37.0% and 31.5% of the total responses, respectively. Gender, age, and education were found to be the main factors influencing a respondents’ WTA. Results of the survey suggest that the actual compensation amount ($355/ha/year) is much lower than respondents’ WTA, and that compensation measures and policies should be improved to guarantee a basic income.