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Droughts can exert significant pressure on regional water resources resulting in abstraction constraints for irrigated agriculture with consequences for productivity and revenue. While water trading can support more efficient water allocation, high transactional costs and delays in approvals often restrict its wider uptake among users. Collaborative water sharing is an alternative approach to formal water trading that has received much less regulatory and industry attention. This study assessed how the potential benefits of water sharing to reduce water resources risks in agriculture are affected by both drought severity and the spatial scale of water-sharing agreements. The research focused on an intensively farmed lowland catchment in Eastern England, a known hot-spot for irrigation intensity and recurrent abstraction pressures. The benefits of water sharing were modelled at four spatial scales: (i) individual licence (with no water sharing), (ii) tributary water sharing among small farmer groups (iii) sub-catchment and (iv) catchment scale. The benefits of water sharing were evaluated based on the modelled reductions in the probability of an irrigation deficit occurring (reducing drought risks) and reduced licensed ‘headroom’ (spare capacity redeployed for more equitable allocation). The potential benefits of water sharing were found to increase with scale, but its impact was limited at high levels of drought severity due to regulatory drought management controls. The broader implications for water sharing to mitigate drought impacts, the barriers to wider uptake and the environmental consequences are discussed.
Rishma Chengot; Jerry Knox; Ian Holman. Evaluating the Feasibility of Water Sharing as a Drought Risk Management Tool for Irrigated Agriculture. Sustainability 2021, 13, 1456 .
AMA StyleRishma Chengot, Jerry Knox, Ian Holman. Evaluating the Feasibility of Water Sharing as a Drought Risk Management Tool for Irrigated Agriculture. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (3):1456.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRishma Chengot; Jerry Knox; Ian Holman. 2021. "Evaluating the Feasibility of Water Sharing as a Drought Risk Management Tool for Irrigated Agriculture." Sustainability 13, no. 3: 1456.
Droughts affect a range of economically important sectors but their impacts are usually most evident within agriculture. Agricultural impacts are not confined to arid and semi-arid regions, but are increasingly experienced in more temperate and humid regions. A transferable drought management framework is needed to transition from coping to adapting to drought through supporting improved planning and policy decision-making through the supply chain from primary producers to consumers. A combination methodology using a Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) approach, an analysis of weekly agricultural trade publications and semi-structured interviews were used to explore drought impacts and responses, using the 2018 United Kingdom drought as a case study. While most reported responses were on-farm, a diverse range of measures were implemented across institutional scales and through the supply chain, reflecting complex interactions within the food system. However, drought responses were dominated by reactive and crisis-driven actions to cope with, or enhance the recovery from, drought; but which contributed little to increased resilience to future droughts. Our transferable drought management framework shows how improved collaboration and multi-sector engagement across spatial, governance and supply-chain scales to develop human and social capital can enable the transition from coping (short-term and reactive) to adapting (long-term and anticipatory) strategies to increase agricultural resilience to future droughts.
Ip Holman; Tm Hess; D Rey; Jw Knox. A Multi-Level Framework for Adaptation to Drought Within Temperate Agriculture. Frontiers in Environmental Science 2021, 8, 1 .
AMA StyleIp Holman, Tm Hess, D Rey, Jw Knox. A Multi-Level Framework for Adaptation to Drought Within Temperate Agriculture. Frontiers in Environmental Science. 2021; 8 ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleIp Holman; Tm Hess; D Rey; Jw Knox. 2021. "A Multi-Level Framework for Adaptation to Drought Within Temperate Agriculture." Frontiers in Environmental Science 8, no. : 1.
As the pressure to take action against global warming is growing in urgency, scenarios that incorporate multiple social, economic and environmental drivers become increasingly critical to support governments and other stakeholders in planning climate change mitigation or adaptation actions. This has led to the recent explosion of future scenario analyses at multiple scales, further accelerated since the development of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) research community Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). While RCPs have been widely applied to climate models to produce climate scenarios at multiple scales for investigating climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerabilities (CCIAV), SSPs are only recently being scaled for different geographical and sectoral applications. This is seen in the UK where significant investment has produced the RCP-based UK Climate Projections (UKCP18), but no equivalent UK version of the SSPs exists. We address this need by developing a set of multi-driver qualitative and quantitative UK-SSPs, following a state-of-the-art scenario methodology that integrates national stakeholder knowledge on locally-relevant drivers and indicators with higher level information from European and global SSPs. This was achieved through an intensive participatory process that facilitated the combination of bottom-up and top-down approaches to develop a set of UK-specific SSPs that are locally comprehensive, yet consistent with the global and European SSPs. The resulting scenarios balance the importance of consistency and legitimacy, demonstrating that divergence is not necessarily the result of inconsistency, nor comes as a choice to contextualise narratives at the appropriate scale.
Simona Pedde; Paula A. Harrison; Ian P. Holman; Gary D. Powney; Stephen Lofts; Reto Schmucki; Marc Gramberger; James M. Bullock. Enriching the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to co-create consistent multi-sector scenarios for the UK. Science of The Total Environment 2020, 756, 143172 .
AMA StyleSimona Pedde, Paula A. Harrison, Ian P. Holman, Gary D. Powney, Stephen Lofts, Reto Schmucki, Marc Gramberger, James M. Bullock. Enriching the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to co-create consistent multi-sector scenarios for the UK. Science of The Total Environment. 2020; 756 ():143172.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSimona Pedde; Paula A. Harrison; Ian P. Holman; Gary D. Powney; Stephen Lofts; Reto Schmucki; Marc Gramberger; James M. Bullock. 2020. "Enriching the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to co-create consistent multi-sector scenarios for the UK." Science of The Total Environment 756, no. : 143172.
Scenarios describe plausible and internally consistent views of the future. They can be used by scientists, policymakers and entrepreneurs to explore the challenges of global environmental change given an appropriate level of spatial and sectoral detail and systematic development. We followed a nine-step protocol to extend and enrich a set of global scenarios – the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) – providing regional and sectoral detail for European agriculture and food systems using a one-to-one nesting participatory approach. The resulting five Eur-Agri-SSPs are titled (1) Agriculture on sustainable paths, (2) Agriculture on established paths, (3) Agriculture on separated paths, (4) Agriculture on unequal paths, and (5) Agriculture on high-tech paths. They describe alternative plausible qualitative evolutions of multiple drivers of particular importance and high uncertainty for European agriculture and food systems. The added value of the protocol-based storyline development process lies in the conceptual and methodological transparency and rigor; the stakeholder driven selection of the storyline elements; and consistency checks within and between the storylines. Compared to the global SSPs, the five Eur-Agri-SSPs provide rich thematic and regional details and are thus a solid basis for integrated assessments of agriculture and food systems and their response to future socio-economic and environmental changes.
Hermine Mitter; Anja-K. Techen; Franz Sinabell; Katharina Helming; Erwin Schmid; Benjamin L. Bodirsky; Ian Holman; Kasper Kok; Heikki Lehtonen; Adrian Leip; Chantal Le Mouël; Erik Mathijs; Bano Mehdi; Klaus Mittenzwei; Olivier Mora; Knut Øistad; Lillian Øygarden; Jörg A. Priess; Pytrik Reidsma; Rüdiger Schaldach; Martin Schönhart. Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture and food systems: The Eur-Agri-SSPs. Global Environmental Change 2020, 65, 102159 -102159.
AMA StyleHermine Mitter, Anja-K. Techen, Franz Sinabell, Katharina Helming, Erwin Schmid, Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Ian Holman, Kasper Kok, Heikki Lehtonen, Adrian Leip, Chantal Le Mouël, Erik Mathijs, Bano Mehdi, Klaus Mittenzwei, Olivier Mora, Knut Øistad, Lillian Øygarden, Jörg A. Priess, Pytrik Reidsma, Rüdiger Schaldach, Martin Schönhart. Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture and food systems: The Eur-Agri-SSPs. Global Environmental Change. 2020; 65 ():102159-102159.
Chicago/Turabian StyleHermine Mitter; Anja-K. Techen; Franz Sinabell; Katharina Helming; Erwin Schmid; Benjamin L. Bodirsky; Ian Holman; Kasper Kok; Heikki Lehtonen; Adrian Leip; Chantal Le Mouël; Erik Mathijs; Bano Mehdi; Klaus Mittenzwei; Olivier Mora; Knut Øistad; Lillian Øygarden; Jörg A. Priess; Pytrik Reidsma; Rüdiger Schaldach; Martin Schönhart. 2020. "Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture and food systems: The Eur-Agri-SSPs." Global Environmental Change 65, no. : 102159-102159.
Future climate change will likely impact the multiple freshwater ecosystem services (fES) provided by catchments through their landscapes and river systems. However, there is high spatio-temporal uncertainty on those impacts linked to climate change uncertainty and the natural and anthropogenic interdependencies of water management systems. This study identifies current and future spatial patterns of fES production in a highly managed water resource system in northern India to inform the design and assessment of plausible adaptation measures to enhance fES production in the catchment under uncertain climate change. A water resource systems modelling approach is used to evaluate fES across the full range of plausible future scenarios, to identify the (worst-case) climate change scenarios triggering the greatest impacts and assess the capacity of adaptation to enhance fES. Results indicate that the current and future states of the fES depend on the spatial patterns of climate change and the impacts of infrastructure management on river flows. Natural zones deliver more regulating and cultural services than anthropized areas, although they are more climate-sensitive. The implementation of a plausible adaptation strategy only manages to slightly enhance fES in the system with respect to no adaptation. These results demonstrate that water resource systems models are powerful tools to capture complex system dependencies and inform the design of robust catchment management measures. They also highlight that mitigation and more ambitious adaptation strategies are needed to offset climate change impacts in highly climate-sensitive catchments.
Andrea Momblanch; Lindsay Beevers; Pradeep Srinivasalu; Anil Kulkarni; Ian Holman. Enhancing production and flow of freshwater ecosystem services in a managed Himalayan river system under uncertain future climate. Climatic Change 2020, 162, 343 -361.
AMA StyleAndrea Momblanch, Lindsay Beevers, Pradeep Srinivasalu, Anil Kulkarni, Ian Holman. Enhancing production and flow of freshwater ecosystem services in a managed Himalayan river system under uncertain future climate. Climatic Change. 2020; 162 (2):343-361.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAndrea Momblanch; Lindsay Beevers; Pradeep Srinivasalu; Anil Kulkarni; Ian Holman. 2020. "Enhancing production and flow of freshwater ecosystem services in a managed Himalayan river system under uncertain future climate." Climatic Change 162, no. 2: 343-361.
In this chapter, we present how climate action that fosters transformations to sustainability and resilience in European societies can be developed in the context of high-end climate change. The chapter builds from the IMPRESSIONS inter- and transdisciplinary research project work on high-end climate change. It brings a unique perspective on long-term horizons (until 2100) and extreme climate change and socio-economic scenarios and uncertainties, as well as how to co-develop transformative adaptation and mitigation pathways with stakeholders to build capacities for responding to such scenarios. The chapter responds to the very fundamental question: ‘what is high-end climate change and why it is relevant for science and policy?’
Ian Holman; Pam Berry; Katharina Hölscher; Paula A. Harrison. Climate Governance and High-End Futures in Europe. Transformative Climates and Accountable Governance 2020, 285 -314.
AMA StyleIan Holman, Pam Berry, Katharina Hölscher, Paula A. Harrison. Climate Governance and High-End Futures in Europe. Transformative Climates and Accountable Governance. 2020; ():285-314.
Chicago/Turabian StyleIan Holman; Pam Berry; Katharina Hölscher; Paula A. Harrison. 2020. "Climate Governance and High-End Futures in Europe." Transformative Climates and Accountable Governance , no. : 285-314.
Water is a fundamental component in primary food production, whether it be rainfall, irrigation used to water crops, or for supplying drinking water for animals, while the amount of water in the soil determines it capacity to support machinery and animals. We identify that UK agriculture is exposed to five main water-related risks: agricultural drought, scarcity of water resources, restrictions on the right to abstract water, excess soil water, and inundation. Projected milder, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers by the end of the century will change the frequency, persistence, or severity of each of these risks. This paper critically reviews and synthesizes the scientific literature on the impact of these risks on primary food production and the technological and managerial strategies employed to build resilience to these changing risks. At the farm scale, the emphasis has been on strategies to build robustness to reduce the impact of a water-related risk. However, collaborative partnerships allow for a more optimal allocation of water during times of scarcity. Enhancing cross-scale interactions, learning opportunities, and catchment-scale autonomy will be key to ensuring the agricultural system can build adaptive and transformational capacity.
Tim Hess; Jerry Knox; Ian Holman; Chloe Sutcliffe. Resilience of Primary Food Production to a Changing Climate: On-Farm Responses to Water-Related Risks. Water 2020, 12, 2155 .
AMA StyleTim Hess, Jerry Knox, Ian Holman, Chloe Sutcliffe. Resilience of Primary Food Production to a Changing Climate: On-Farm Responses to Water-Related Risks. Water. 2020; 12 (8):2155.
Chicago/Turabian StyleTim Hess; Jerry Knox; Ian Holman; Chloe Sutcliffe. 2020. "Resilience of Primary Food Production to a Changing Climate: On-Farm Responses to Water-Related Risks." Water 12, no. 8: 2155.
Drought has detrimental impacts on crop and livestock farming systems worldwide, but less attention has been given to outdoor livestock systems, particularly in humid temperate regions. This research evaluated how an intense drought in 2018 impacted the UK livestock sector and the responses adopted by key actors, though a combination of analysis of weekly agricultural trade publications and semi-structured interviews with livestock farmers. Drought impacts centred on feed and fodder availability, animal productivity and welfare, farm economics, and farmer well-being, with strong inter-dependencies observed. Most drought responses by farmers were reactive short-term coping strategies to address feed shortages, with three main strategies applied: management of available grazing and feed; selling livestock to reduce feed demand and to obtain income; and buying-in additional feed. Few longer-term adaptive measures were identified due to a range of constraints. Moving forwards, the UK livestock sector needs to convert the learning from the reactive measures implemented in 2018 into pro-active drought planning approaches. The current political changes in the UK also provides a unique opportunity for agricultural policy to better reward the desirable nationally- and locally-important non-market services or public goods that livestock farming provides. Together, these should support increased drought resilience in livestock farming and increased farming viability.
Gloria Salmoral; Benjamin Ababio; Ian P. Holman. Drought Impacts, Coping Responses and Adaptation in the UK Outdoor Livestock Sector: Insights to Increase Drought Resilience. Land 2020, 9, 202 .
AMA StyleGloria Salmoral, Benjamin Ababio, Ian P. Holman. Drought Impacts, Coping Responses and Adaptation in the UK Outdoor Livestock Sector: Insights to Increase Drought Resilience. Land. 2020; 9 (6):202.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGloria Salmoral; Benjamin Ababio; Ian P. Holman. 2020. "Drought Impacts, Coping Responses and Adaptation in the UK Outdoor Livestock Sector: Insights to Increase Drought Resilience." Land 9, no. 6: 202.
The need to provide accurate estimates of precipitation over catchments in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, and Himalaya mountain ranges for hydrological and water resource systems assessments is widely recognised, as is identifying precipitation extremes for assessing hydro‐meteorological hazards. Here, we investigate the ability of bias‐corrected Weather Research and Forecasting model output at 5 km grid spacing to reproduce the spatiotemporal variability of precipitation for the Beas and Sutlej river basins in the Himalaya, measured by 44 stations spread over the period 1980 to 2012. For the Sutlej basin, we find that the raw (uncorrected) model output generally underestimated annual, monthly, and (particularly low‐intensity) daily precipitation amounts. For the Beas basin, the model performance was better, although biases still existed. It is speculated that the cause of the dry bias over the Sutlej basin is a failure of the model to represent an early‐morning maximum in precipitation during the monsoon period, which is related to excessive precipitation falling upwind. However, applying a non‐linear bias‐correction method to the model output resulted in much better results, which were superior to precipitation estimates from reanalysis and two gridded datasets. These findings highlight the difficulty in using current gridded datasets as input for hydrological modelling in Himalayan catchments, suggesting that bias‐corrected high‐resolution regional climate model output is in fact necessary. Moreover, precipitation extremes over the Beas and Sutlej basins were considerably under‐represented in the gridded datasets, suggesting that bias‐corrected regional climate model output is also necessary for hydro‐meteorological risk assessments in Himalayan catchments.
Daniel Bannister; Andrew Orr; Sanjay K. Jain; Ian Holman; Andrea Momblanch; Tony Phillips; Adebayo Adeloye; Boris Snapir; Toby Waine; J. Scott Hosking; Clare Allen‐Sader. Bias Correction of High‐Resolution Regional Climate Model Precipitation Output Gives the Best Estimates of Precipitation in Himalayan Catchments. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 2019, 124, 14220 -14239.
AMA StyleDaniel Bannister, Andrew Orr, Sanjay K. Jain, Ian Holman, Andrea Momblanch, Tony Phillips, Adebayo Adeloye, Boris Snapir, Toby Waine, J. Scott Hosking, Clare Allen‐Sader. Bias Correction of High‐Resolution Regional Climate Model Precipitation Output Gives the Best Estimates of Precipitation in Himalayan Catchments. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 2019; 124 (24):14220-14239.
Chicago/Turabian StyleDaniel Bannister; Andrew Orr; Sanjay K. Jain; Ian Holman; Andrea Momblanch; Tony Phillips; Adebayo Adeloye; Boris Snapir; Toby Waine; J. Scott Hosking; Clare Allen‐Sader. 2019. "Bias Correction of High‐Resolution Regional Climate Model Precipitation Output Gives the Best Estimates of Precipitation in Himalayan Catchments." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 124, no. 24: 14220-14239.
Moving towards a more sustainable future requires concerted actions, particularly in the context of global climate change. Integrated assessments of agricultural systems (IAAS) are considered valuable tools to provide sound information for policy and decision-making. IAAS use storylines to define socio-economic and environmental framework assumptions. While a set of qualitative global storylines, known as the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), is available to inform integrated assessments at large scales, their spatial resolution and scope is insufficient for regional studies in agriculture. We present a protocol to operationalize the development of Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture – Eur-Agri-SSPs – to support IAAS. The proposed design of the storyline development process is based on six quality criteria: plausibility, vertical and horizontal consistency, salience, legitimacy, richness and creativity. Trade-offs between these criteria may occur. The process is science-driven and iterative to enhance plausibility and horizontal consistency. A nested approach is suggested to link storylines across scales while maintaining vertical consistency. Plausibility, legitimacy, salience, richness and creativity shall be stimulated in a participatory and interdisciplinary storyline development process. The quality criteria and process design requirements are combined in the protocol to increase conceptual and methodological transparency. The protocol specifies nine working steps. For each step, suitable methods are proposed and the intended level and format of stakeholder engagement are discussed. A key methodological challenge is to link global SSPs with regional perspectives provided by the stakeholders, while maintaining vertical consistency and stakeholder buy-in. We conclude that the protocol facilitates systematic development and evaluation of storylines, which can be transferred to other regions, sectors and scales and supports inter-comparisons of IAAS.
Hermine Mitter; Anja-K. Techen; Franz Sinabell; Katharina Helming; Kasper Kok; Joerg Priess; Erwin Schmid; Benjamin Leon Bodirsky; Ian Holman; Heikki Lehtonen; Adrian Leip; Chantal Le Mouël; Erik Mathijs; Bano Mehdi; Melania Michetti; Klaus Mittenzwei; Olivier Mora; Lillian Øygarden; Pytrik Reidsma; Rüdiger Schaldach; Martin Schönhart. A protocol to develop Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture. Journal of Environmental Management 2019, 252, 109701 .
AMA StyleHermine Mitter, Anja-K. Techen, Franz Sinabell, Katharina Helming, Kasper Kok, Joerg Priess, Erwin Schmid, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Ian Holman, Heikki Lehtonen, Adrian Leip, Chantal Le Mouël, Erik Mathijs, Bano Mehdi, Melania Michetti, Klaus Mittenzwei, Olivier Mora, Lillian Øygarden, Pytrik Reidsma, Rüdiger Schaldach, Martin Schönhart. A protocol to develop Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture. Journal of Environmental Management. 2019; 252 ():109701.
Chicago/Turabian StyleHermine Mitter; Anja-K. Techen; Franz Sinabell; Katharina Helming; Kasper Kok; Joerg Priess; Erwin Schmid; Benjamin Leon Bodirsky; Ian Holman; Heikki Lehtonen; Adrian Leip; Chantal Le Mouël; Erik Mathijs; Bano Mehdi; Melania Michetti; Klaus Mittenzwei; Olivier Mora; Lillian Øygarden; Pytrik Reidsma; Rüdiger Schaldach; Martin Schönhart. 2019. "A protocol to develop Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture." Journal of Environmental Management 252, no. : 109701.
Heera Lee; Calum Brown; Bumsuk Seo; Ian Holman; Eric Audsley; George Cojocaru; Mark Rounsevell. Implementing land-based mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement in Europe requires food system transformation. Environmental Research Letters 2019, 14, 104009 .
AMA StyleHeera Lee, Calum Brown, Bumsuk Seo, Ian Holman, Eric Audsley, George Cojocaru, Mark Rounsevell. Implementing land-based mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement in Europe requires food system transformation. Environmental Research Letters. 2019; 14 (10):104009.
Chicago/Turabian StyleHeera Lee; Calum Brown; Bumsuk Seo; Ian Holman; Eric Audsley; George Cojocaru; Mark Rounsevell. 2019. "Implementing land-based mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement in Europe requires food system transformation." Environmental Research Letters 14, no. 10: 104009.
Assessing the combined impacts of future climate and socio-economic change at the country level is vital for supporting national adaptation policies. Here, we use a novel modelling approach to study the systemic impacts of climate and socio-economic changes on the Czech Republic, taking account of cross-sectoral interactions between agriculture, water, forestry, land-use and biodiversity, and, for the first time, trans-national interactions. We evaluate the national-level baseline results, scenario-neutral model sensitivities, and climate and socio-economic scenario impacts using a European-scale integrated modelling tool. Consistently across most climate and socio-economic scenarios, the Czech Republic is projected to have increasing importance as a crop-growing region in Europe, due to an increased competitive advantage within the continent. Arable land in the Czech Republic expands, at the expense of livestock farming and forestry, with associated impacts of increased water scarcity and reduced biodiversity for the country. Accounting for trans-national interactions in national-scale assessments provides more realistic assessments of impacts and helps to identify the changing role of the country within its regional and continental domain. Such improved understanding can support policy-makers in developing national adaptation actions that reduce adverse impacts and realise opportunities.
Lamprini Papadimitriou; Miroslav Trnka; Paula Harrison; Ian Holman. Cross-sectoral and trans-national interactions in national-scale climate change impacts assessment—the case of the Czech Republic. Regional Environmental Change 2019, 19, 2453 -2464.
AMA StyleLamprini Papadimitriou, Miroslav Trnka, Paula Harrison, Ian Holman. Cross-sectoral and trans-national interactions in national-scale climate change impacts assessment—the case of the Czech Republic. Regional Environmental Change. 2019; 19 (8):2453-2464.
Chicago/Turabian StyleLamprini Papadimitriou; Miroslav Trnka; Paula Harrison; Ian Holman. 2019. "Cross-sectoral and trans-national interactions in national-scale climate change impacts assessment—the case of the Czech Republic." Regional Environmental Change 19, no. 8: 2453-2464.
In a post-Paris Agreement world, where global warming has been limited to 1.5 or 2 °C, adaptation is still needed to address the impacts of climate change. To reinforce the links between such climate actions and sustainable development, adaptation responses should be aligned with goals of environmental conservation, economic development and societal wellbeing. This paper uses a multi-sectoral integrated modelling platform to evaluate the impacts of a + 1.5 °C world to the end of the 21st century under alternative Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for Europe. It evaluates the ability of adaptation strategies to concurrently improve a range of indicators, relating to sustainable development, under the constraints imposed by the contrasting SSPs. The spatial synergies and trade-offs between sustainable development indicators (SDIs) are also evaluated across Europe. We find that considerable impacts are present even under low-end climate change, affecting especially biodiversity. Even when the SDIs improve with adaptation, residual impacts of climate change affect all the SDIs, apart from sustainable production. All but one of the adaptation strategies have unintended consequences on one or multiple SDIs, although these differ substantially between strategies, regions and socio-economic scenarios. The exception was the strategy to increase social and human capital. Other strategies that lead to successful adaptation with limited unintended consequences are those aiming at adoption of sustainable behaviours and implementation of sustainable water management. This work stresses the continuing importance of adaptation even under 1.5 °C or 2 °C of global warming. Further, it demonstrates the need for policy-makers to develop holistic adaptation strategies that take account of the synergies and trade-offs between sectoral adaptation strategies, sectors and regions, and are also constrained by scenario context to avoid over-optimistic assessments.
Lamprini Papadimitriou; Ian Holman; Robert Dunford; Paula A. Harrison. Trade-offs are unavoidable in multi-objective adaptation even in a post-Paris Agreement world. Science of The Total Environment 2019, 696, 134027 .
AMA StyleLamprini Papadimitriou, Ian Holman, Robert Dunford, Paula A. Harrison. Trade-offs are unavoidable in multi-objective adaptation even in a post-Paris Agreement world. Science of The Total Environment. 2019; 696 ():134027.
Chicago/Turabian StyleLamprini Papadimitriou; Ian Holman; Robert Dunford; Paula A. Harrison. 2019. "Trade-offs are unavoidable in multi-objective adaptation even in a post-Paris Agreement world." Science of The Total Environment 696, no. : 134027.
Predicting the next major drought is of paramount interest to water managers globally. Estimating the onset of groundwater drought is of particular importance, as groundwater resources are often assumed to be more resilient when surface water resources begin to fail. A potential source of long-term forecasting is offered by possible periodic controls on groundwater level via teleconnections with oscillatory ocean–atmosphere systems. However, relationships between large-scale climate systems and regional to local-scale rainfall, evapotranspiration (ET) and groundwater are often complex and non-linear so that the influence of long-term climate cycles on groundwater drought remains poorly understood. Furthermore, it is currently unknown whether the absolute contribution of multi-annual climate variability to total groundwater storage is significant. This study assesses the extent to which multi-annual variability in groundwater can be used to indicate the timing of groundwater droughts in the UK. Continuous wavelet transforms show how repeating teleconnection-driven 7-year and 16–32-year cycles in the majority of groundwater sites from all the UK's major aquifers can systematically control the recurrence of groundwater drought; and we provide evidence that these periodic modes are driven by teleconnections. Wavelet reconstructions demonstrate that multi-annual periodicities of the North Atlantic Oscillation, known to drive North Atlantic meteorology, comprise up to 40 % of the total groundwater storage variability. Furthermore, the majority of UK recorded droughts in recent history coincide with a minimum phase in the 7-year NAO-driven cycles in groundwater level, providing insight into drought occurrences on a multi-annual timescale. Long-range groundwater drought forecasts via climate teleconnections present transformational opportunities to drought prediction and its management across the North Atlantic region.
William Rust; Ian Holman; John Bloomfield; Mark Cuthbert; Ron Corstanje. Understanding the potential of climate teleconnections to project future groundwater drought. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2019, 23, 3233 -3245.
AMA StyleWilliam Rust, Ian Holman, John Bloomfield, Mark Cuthbert, Ron Corstanje. Understanding the potential of climate teleconnections to project future groundwater drought. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 2019; 23 (8):3233-3245.
Chicago/Turabian StyleWilliam Rust; Ian Holman; John Bloomfield; Mark Cuthbert; Ron Corstanje. 2019. "Understanding the potential of climate teleconnections to project future groundwater drought." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 23, no. 8: 3233-3245.
One of the consequences of the generally agreed rise of global temperatures, furtherly exacerbated by the growth of water demand caused by the needs of a growing population, is an increase of areas with water stress. This will imply and in part is already implying, an always greater imbalance between water (and in particular drinking water) demand and supply. These issues are among those investigated by the "Adapting Drinking Water resources to the Impacts of Climate change in Europe" (ADWICE) project that had, among its main goals, the identification of priority adaptation measures aimed at reducing drinking water vulnerability to the pressures of a changing climate. In this paper these adaptation measures are described, with special attention given to their associated European water policy context. The complexity of designing and implementing such adaptation measures will benefit from integrating drinking water concerns with wider water management, within a framework able to facilitate the necessary complex collaborations between various actors involved in the different scales of the decision-making arena and to develop an effective science policy interfacing mechanism. Last, but not least, because drinking water is commonly considered by stakeholders and citizens to be a public service, drinking water managers should enable their involvement in the adaptation decision-making process, to ensure their acceptance and cooperation and to prevent conflicts.
Monica Garnier; Ian Holman. Critical Review of Adaptation Measures to Reduce the Vulnerability of European Drinking Water Resources to the Pressures of Climate Change. Environmental Management 2019, 64, 138 -153.
AMA StyleMonica Garnier, Ian Holman. Critical Review of Adaptation Measures to Reduce the Vulnerability of European Drinking Water Resources to the Pressures of Climate Change. Environmental Management. 2019; 64 (2):138-153.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMonica Garnier; Ian Holman. 2019. "Critical Review of Adaptation Measures to Reduce the Vulnerability of European Drinking Water Resources to the Pressures of Climate Change." Environmental Management 64, no. 2: 138-153.
Global change is expected to have a strong impact in the Himalayan region. The climatic and orographic conditions result in unique modelling challenges and requirements. This paper critically appraises recent hydrological modelling applications in Himalayan river basins, focusing on their utility to analyse the impacts of future climate and socio-economic changes on water resource availability in the region. Results show that the latter are only represented by land use change. Distributed, process-based hydrological models coupled with temperature-index melt models are predominant. The choice of spatial discretisation is critical for model performance due to the strong influence of elevation on meteorological variables and snow/ice accumulation and melt. However, the sparsity and limited reliability of point weather data, and the biases and low resolution of gridded datasets, hinder the representation of the meteorological complexity. These data limitations often limit the selection of models and the quality of the outputs by forcing the exclusion of processes that are significant to the local hydrology. The absence of observations for water stores and fluxes other than river flows prevents multi-variable calibration and increases the risk of equifinality. The uncertainties arising from these limitations are amplified in climate change analyses and, thus, systematic assessment of uncertainty propagation is required. Based on these insights, transferable recommendations are made on directions for future data collection and model applications that may enhance realism within models and advance the ability of global change impact assessments to inform adaptation planning in this globally important region.
Andrea Momblanch; Ian P. Holman; Sanjay K. Jain. Current Practice and Recommendations for Modelling Global Change Impacts on Water Resource in the Himalayas. Water 2019, 11, 1303 .
AMA StyleAndrea Momblanch, Ian P. Holman, Sanjay K. Jain. Current Practice and Recommendations for Modelling Global Change Impacts on Water Resource in the Himalayas. Water. 2019; 11 (6):1303.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAndrea Momblanch; Ian P. Holman; Sanjay K. Jain. 2019. "Current Practice and Recommendations for Modelling Global Change Impacts on Water Resource in the Himalayas." Water 11, no. 6: 1303.
Drought constitutes a significant production and business risk in agriculture, particularly for those enterprises dependent on irrigation to deliver high quality continuous supplies of fresh produce to the retail sector. Whilst most farmers are well attuned to managing short term weather-related crop risks, they lack access to tools that can support medium-term decision-making and risk management strategies under conditions of increasing water scarcity and climate uncertainty. This paper describes D-Risk, an intuitive online webtool designed to help farming enterprises easily understand their existing and emergent drought and irrigation abstraction risks and thereby support more robust decision-making regarding future changes in crop planning and water resources infrastructure investment.
David Haro-Monteagudo; Jerry W. Knox; Ian P. Holman. D-Risk: A decision-support webtool for improving drought risk management in irrigated agriculture. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture 2019, 162, 855 -858.
AMA StyleDavid Haro-Monteagudo, Jerry W. Knox, Ian P. Holman. D-Risk: A decision-support webtool for improving drought risk management in irrigated agriculture. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture. 2019; 162 ():855-858.
Chicago/Turabian StyleDavid Haro-Monteagudo; Jerry W. Knox; Ian P. Holman. 2019. "D-Risk: A decision-support webtool for improving drought risk management in irrigated agriculture." Computers and Electronics in Agriculture 162, no. : 855-858.
With a range of potential pathways to a sustainable future compatible with the Paris Agreement 1.5 °C target, scenario analysis has emerged as a key tool in studies of climate change mitigation and adaptation. A wide range of alternative scenarios have been created, and core amongst these are five socio-economic scenarios (Shared Socio-economic Pathways or SSPs) and four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs). Whilst mitigation scenarios (the Shared Policy Assumptions, or SPAs) have been developed for each SSP-RCP combination, describing the actions necessary to match the climate pathway of the RCP, there has not yet been a systematic approach to address whether and how these actions can be enabled in practice. We present a novel and transferable framework to understand society’s capacity to achieve the 1.5 °C target, based on four participatory case studies using the SSP-RCP scenarios. The methodology builds on a framework for categorising different types of societal capitals and capacities and assessing their impact on the potential to implement different types of mitigation actions. All four case studies show that SSP1 has the highest potential to reach the target. Although environmental awareness is high in both SSP1 and SSP4, continued social inequalities in SSP4 restrict society’s capacity to transform, despite economic growth. In the two least environmentally-aware SSPs, SSP3 and SSP5, the transformation potential is low, but the view on capitals and capacities nonetheless helps identify opportunities for actors to develop and implement mitigation actions. The study highlights that techno-economic assessments of climate strategies need to be complemented by consideration of the critical role played by social and human capital, and by societal capacity to mobilise and create these capitals despite different socio-economic trends. These capitals and capacities are essential to enable the rapid innovation, behavioural change and international co-ordination needed to achieve the 1.5 °C target.
Simona Pedde; Kasper Kok; Katharina Hölscher; Niki Frantzeskaki; Ian Holman; Rob Dunford; Alison Smith; Jill Jäger. Advancing the use of scenarios to understand society’s capacity to achieve the 1.5 degree target. Global Environmental Change 2019, 56, 75 -85.
AMA StyleSimona Pedde, Kasper Kok, Katharina Hölscher, Niki Frantzeskaki, Ian Holman, Rob Dunford, Alison Smith, Jill Jäger. Advancing the use of scenarios to understand society’s capacity to achieve the 1.5 degree target. Global Environmental Change. 2019; 56 ():75-85.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSimona Pedde; Kasper Kok; Katharina Hölscher; Niki Frantzeskaki; Ian Holman; Rob Dunford; Alison Smith; Jill Jäger. 2019. "Advancing the use of scenarios to understand society’s capacity to achieve the 1.5 degree target." Global Environmental Change 56, no. : 75-85.
Drought has wide ranging impacts on all sectors. Despite much effort to identify the best drought indicator to represents the occurrence of drought impacts in a particular sector, there is still no consensus among the scientific community on this. Using a more detailed and extensive impact dataset than in previous studies, this paper assesses the regional relationship between drought impacts occurrence in British agriculture and two of the most commonly used drought indices (SPI and SPEI). The largest qualitative dataset on reported drought impacts on British agriculture for the period 1975–2012 spanning all major recent droughts was collated. Logistic regression using generalised additive models was applied to investigate the association between drought indices and reported impacts at the regional level. Results show that SPEI calculated for the preceding six months is the best indicator to predict the probability of drought impacts on agriculture in the UK, although the variation in the response to SPEI6 differed between regions. However, this variation appears to result both from the method by which SPEI is derived, which means that similar values of the index equate to different soil moisture conditions in wet and dry regions, and from the variation in agriculture between regions. The study shows that SPEI alone has limited value as an indicator of agricultural droughts in heterogeneous areas and that such results cannot be usefully extrapolated between regions. However, given the drought sensitivity of agriculture, the integration of regional predictions within drought monitoring and forecasting would help to reduce the large on-farm economic damage of drought and increase the sector's resilience to future drought.
David J. Parsons; Dolores Rey; Maliko Tanguy; Ian Holman. Regional variations in the link between drought indices and reported agricultural impacts of drought. Agricultural Systems 2019, 173, 119 -129.
AMA StyleDavid J. Parsons, Dolores Rey, Maliko Tanguy, Ian Holman. Regional variations in the link between drought indices and reported agricultural impacts of drought. Agricultural Systems. 2019; 173 ():119-129.
Chicago/Turabian StyleDavid J. Parsons; Dolores Rey; Maliko Tanguy; Ian Holman. 2019. "Regional variations in the link between drought indices and reported agricultural impacts of drought." Agricultural Systems 173, no. : 119-129.
The complex challenges arising from climate change that exceeds the +2 °C target (termed ‘high-end climate change’) in Europe require new integrative responses to support transformations to a more sustainable future. We present a novel methodology that combines transition management and high-end climate and socioeconomic change scenarios to identify pathways and move Europe closer to sustainability. Eighteen pathways have been co-created with stakeholders through a participatory process. The pathways support Europe in moving towards a desirable future vision, through top-down and bottom-up actions that lower greenhouse gas emissions, reduce impacts of and vulnerabilities to climate and socioeconomic changes and enhance well-being. Analysis shows that the pathways that are robust to future scenario uncertainty are those that shift Europe towards sustainable lifestyles, support and strengthen good governance for sustainability and promote adaptive resource management for water, agriculture and energy. The methodology can support the design of the urgent actions needed to meet the requirements of the Paris Agreement and to transform Europe, in preparation for an uncertain future.
Niki Frantzeskaki; Katharina Hölscher; Ian Holman; Simona Pedde; Jill Jaeger; Kasper Kok; Paula A. Harrison. Transition pathways to sustainability in greater than 2 °C climate futures of Europe. Regional Environmental Change 2019, 19, 777 -789.
AMA StyleNiki Frantzeskaki, Katharina Hölscher, Ian Holman, Simona Pedde, Jill Jaeger, Kasper Kok, Paula A. Harrison. Transition pathways to sustainability in greater than 2 °C climate futures of Europe. Regional Environmental Change. 2019; 19 (3):777-789.
Chicago/Turabian StyleNiki Frantzeskaki; Katharina Hölscher; Ian Holman; Simona Pedde; Jill Jaeger; Kasper Kok; Paula A. Harrison. 2019. "Transition pathways to sustainability in greater than 2 °C climate futures of Europe." Regional Environmental Change 19, no. 3: 777-789.