Foraging in the Landscape of Fear, the Predator’s Dilemma: Where Should I Hunt?

Potential distribution of the ocelot (Leopardus pardalis) in Northeastern Mexico

In the northernmost American tropical forests of eastern Mexico, we analyzed the potential distribution of three ungulate species, Odocoileus virginianus, Mazama temama and Pecari tajacu, in response to several physical, climatic, biological, and anthropogenic variables, in order to identify environmental factors affecting distribution and potential key areas for ungulate conservation. Current presence records for these species were gathered, and potential distribution models were built using Maximum Entropy niche modeling (MaxEnt). Model suitability surfaces were used to calculate remaining potential habitat areas in the region, as well as the potential sympatric area and representation of these areas in Natural Protected Areas. Biological and anthropogenic variables were the best species distribution predictors. Landscape composition (the proportion of different land-use and land-cover classes: forest, agriculture, and pasture) within approximately 120 ha, was the most important variable for all models, influencing each species differently with respect to their tolerance of altered habitats. The remaining potential area of all three species is fragmented and has apparently been nearly lost in plains (<14% remaining). Distribution models allowed us to detect an important location in the western portion of our study area which may function as a large biological corridor in the Sierra Madre Oriental mastogeographic province, a region heavily transformed by land use change. In the context of habitat transformation, management promoting quality matrix at the landscape level promises to be a viable alternative for ungulate conservation in tropical regions of Mexico.

We documented 36 new records of tigrillo in the region Huasteca of San Luis Potosí, México. This new evidence of tigrillo presence augments its range within the state 38 km west. Records were found mainly in areas with dense vegetation cover including tropical forest and tropical deciduous forest. Results of this investigation suggest tigrillo mainly inhabits areas with dense vegetation cover in this region of Mexico.

The margay (Leopardus wiedii, Schinz 1821) is a small Neotropical cat that is native with distribution from South America into Northeastern Mexico. This species is now threatened by illegal hunting and habitat destruction and, in Northeastern Mexico, their habitat has been fragmented and population sizes have been dramatically reduced. We use the MaxEnt algorithm to model the potential distribution of this elusive species, based on trustable presence records and information about their habitat condition. The aim of this study was to estimate the potential distribution of margays in Northeastern Mexico. We determined potential distribution in the physiographic subprovinces (PSP) of Llanuras y Lomerios, Gran Sierra Plegada and Carso Huasteco. A model was generated using recent and historical records through the MaxEnt algorithm. We used four records from online databases, 36 from literature and 13 from our own fieldwork, as well as 27 predictive variables: 19 associated with climate, two with land use and vegetation type, four associated with topography and two with anthropogenic effects. Seven variables contributed to over 90 % of the distribution model and were highly predictive (AUC = 0.964). The potential distribution of margay represents 9.0 % (7,607 km²) of the area, which is highly fragmented. The PSP Gran Sierra Plegada and Carso Huasteco showed the widest distribution range. The four most relevant variables were: precipitation of the most humid quarter, vegetation type, and both altitude and topographic indexes. We applied species distribution modeling by incorporating recent information collected through fieldwork and surveys as well as historical records in order to predict the margay’s potential distribution in Northeastern Mexico. We obtained a robust model based on the most relevant bioclimatic and landscape variables. The landscape in this region is highly fragmented and the largest continuous areas were located in the roughest and inaccessible landscape of the mountainous localities of Gran Sierra Plegada and Carso Huasteco, where an important portion of these PSP maintains continuity in the area of the potential distribution of the margay. Very little is known of the status and abundance of the margay and this study complements our current knowledge of this species in Northeastern Mexico and provides important information regarding the quality of the habitat in this portion of the country. There are several current threats that are being caused by changes in land use in Northeastern Mexico and other parts of their distribution, and this information is essential to establish conservation plans for this species and their habitat. More studies assessing potential distribution throughout their range are needed to support adequate conservation efforts.