Modern whole-genome prediction (WGP) frameworks that focus on multi-environment trials (MET) integrate large-scale genomics, phenomics, and envirotyping data. However, the more complex the statistical model, the longer the computational processing times, which do not always result in accuracy gains. We investigated the use of new kernel methods and modeling structures involving genomics and nongenomic sources of variation in two MET maize data sets. Five WGP models were considered, advancing in complexity from a main-effect additive model (A) to more complex structures, including dominance deviations (D), genotype × environment interaction (AE and DE), and the reaction-norm model using environmental covariables (W) and their interaction with A and D (AW + DW). A combination of those models built with three different kernel methods, Gaussian kernel (GK), Deep kernel (DK), and the benchmark genomic best linear-unbiased predictor (GBLUP/GB), was tested under three prediction scenarios: newly developed hybrids (CV1), sparse MET conditions (CV2), and new environments (CV0). GK and DK outperformed GB in prediction accuracy and reduction of computation time (~up to 20%) under all model–kernel scenarios. GK was more efficient in capturing the variation due to A + AE and D + DE effects and translated it into accuracy gains (~up to 85% compared with GB). DK provided more consistent predictions, even for more complex structures such as W + AW + DW. Our results suggest that DK and GK are more efficient in translating model complexity into accuracy, and more suitable for including dominance and reaction-norm effects in a biologically accurate and faster way.

Envirotyping is an essential technique used to unfold the nongenetic drivers associated with the phenotypic adaptation of living organisms. Here, we introduce the EnvRtype R package, a novel toolkit developed to interplay large-scale envirotyping data (enviromics) into quantitative genomics. To start a user-friendly envirotyping pipeline, this package offers: (1) remote sensing tools for collecting (get_weather and extract_GIS functions) and processing ecophysiological variables (processWTH function) from raw environmental data at single locations or worldwide; (2) environmental characterization by typing environments and profiling descriptors of environmental quality (env_typing function), in addition to gathering environmental covariables as quantitative descriptors for predictive purposes (W_matrix function); and (3) identification of environmental similarity that can be used as an enviromic-based kernel (env_typing function) in whole-genome prediction (GP), aimed at increasing ecophysiological knowledge in genomic best-unbiased predictions (GBLUP) and emulating reaction norm effects (get_kernel and kernel_model functions). We highlight literature mining concepts in fine-tuning envirotyping parameters for each plant species and target growing environments. We show that envirotyping for predictive breeding collects raw data and processes it in an eco-physiologically smart way. Examples of its use for creating global-scale envirotyping networks and integrating reaction-norm modeling in GP are also outlined. We conclude that EnvRtype provides a cost-effective envirotyping pipeline capable of providing high quality enviromic data for a diverse set of genomic-based studies, especially for increasing accuracy in GP across untested growing environments.

Linking high-throughput environmental data (enviromics) to genomic prediction (GP) is a cost-effective strategy for increasing selection intensity under genotype-by-environment interactions (G × E). This study developed a data-driven approach based on Environment–Phenotype Association (EPA) aimed at recycling important G × E information from historical breeding data. EPA was developed in two applications: (1) scanning a secondary source of genetic variation, weighted from the shared reaction-norms of past-evaluated genotypes and (2) pinpointing weights of the similarity among trial-sites (locations), given the historical impact of each envirotyping data variable for a given site. These results were then used as a dimensionality reduction strategy, integrating historical data to feed multi-environment GP models, which led to the development of four new G × E kernels considering genomics, enviromics, and EPA outcomes. The wheat trial data used included 36 locations, 8 years, and three target populations of environments (TPEs) in India. Four prediction scenarios and six kernel models within/across TPEs were tested. Our results suggest that the conventional GBLUP, without enviromic data or when omitting EPA, is inefficient in predicting the performance of wheat lines in future years. Nevertheless, when EPA was introduced as an intermediary learning step to reduce the dimensionality of the G × E kernels while connecting phenotypic and environmental-wide variation, a significant enhancement of G × E prediction accuracy was evident. EPA revealed that the effect of seasonality makes strategies such as “covariable selection” unfeasible because G × E is year-germplasm specific. We propose that the EPA effectively serves as a “reinforcement learner” algorithm capable of uncovering the effect of seasonality over the reaction-norms, with the benefits of better forecasting the similarities between past and future trialing sites. EPA combines the benefits of dimensionality reduction while reducing the uncertainty of genotype-by-year predictions and increasing the resolution of GP for the genotype-specific level.

Wheat is a major crop worldwide, mainly cultivated for human consumption and animal feed. Grain quality is paramount in determining its value and downstream use. While we know that climate change threatens global crop yields, a better understanding of impacts on wheat end‐use quality is also critical. Combining quantitative genetics with climate model outputs, we investigated UK‐wide trends in genotypic adaptation for wheat quality traits. In our approach, we augmented genomic prediction models with environmental characterisation of field trials to predict trait values and climate effects in historical field trial data between 2001 and 2020. Addition of environmental covariates, such as temperature and rainfall, successfully enabled prediction of genotype by environment interactions (G × E), and increased prediction accuracy of most traits for new genotypes in new year cross validation. We then extended predictions from these models to much larger numbers of simulated environments using climate scenarios projected under Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 for 2050–2069. We found geographically varying climate change impacts on wheat quality due to contrasting associations between specific weather covariables and quality traits across the UK. Notably, negative impacts on quality traits were predicted in the East of the UK due to increased summer temperatures while the climate in the North and South‐west may become more favourable with increased summer temperatures. Furthermore, by projecting 167,040 simulated future genotype–environment combinations, we found only limited potential for breeding to exploit predictable G × E to mitigate year‐to‐year environmental variability for most traits except Hagberg falling number. This suggests low adaptability of current UK wheat germplasm across future UK climates. More generally, approaches demonstrated here will be critical to enable adaptation of global crops to near‐term climate change.

Genotype-environment interaction is pervasive in forest genetics. Delineation of spatial breeding zones (BZs) is fundamental for accommodating genotype-environment interaction. Here we developed a BZ classification pipeline for the forest tree Eucalyptus globulus in 2 Australian regions based on phenotypic, genomic, and pedigree data, as well on a detailed environmental characterization (“envirotyping”) and spatial mapping of BZs. First, the factor analytic method was used to model additive genetic variance and site–site genetic correlations (r_B) in stem volume across 48 trials of 126,467 full-sib progeny from 2 separate breeding programs. Thirty-three trials were envirotyped using 145 environmental variables (EVs), involving soil and landscape (71), climate (73), and management (1) EVs. Next, sparse partial least squares-discriminant analysis was used to identify EVs that were required to predict classification of sites into 5 non-exclusive BZ classes based on r_B. Finally, these BZs were spatially mapped across the West Australian and “Green Triangle” commercial estates by enviromic prediction using EVs for 80 locations and 15 sets of observed climate data to represent temporal variation. The factor analytic model explained 85.9% of estimated additive variance. Our environmental classification system produced within-zone mean r_B between 0.76 and 0.84, which improves upon the existing values of 0.62 for Western Australia and 0.67 for Green Triangle as regional BZs. The delineation of 5 BZ classes provides a powerful framework for increasing genetic gain by matching genotypes to current and predicted future environments.