Climate change and human activities are reshaping the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems, particularly in vulnerable regions such as agro-pastoral ecotones. However, the extent to which climate change impacts vegetation growth in these areas remains poorly understood, largely due to the modifying effects of human-induced land cover changes on vegetation sensitivity to climatic variations. This study utilizes satellite-derived vegetation indices, land cover datasets, and climate data to investigate the influence of both land cover and climate changes on vegetation growth in the agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China (APENC) from 2001 to 2022. The results reveal that the sensitivity of vegetation productivity, as indicated by the kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (kNDVI), varies depending on the land cover type to climate change in the APENC. Moreover, ridge regression modeling shows that pre-season climate conditions (i.e., pre-season precipitation and temperature) have a stronger positive impact on growing-season vegetation productivity than growing season precipitation and temperature, while the effect of vapor pressure deficit (VPD) is negative. Notably, the kNDVI exhibits significant positive sensitivity (p < 0.05) to precipitation in 34.12% of the region and significant negative sensitivity (p < 0.05) to VPD in 38.80%. The ridge regression model explained 89.10% of the total variation (R² = 0.891). These findings not only emphasize the critical role of both historical and contemporary climate conditions in shaping vegetation growth but also provide valuable insights into how to adjust agricultural and animal husbandry management strategies to improve regional climate adaptation based on climate information from previous seasons in fragile regions.

Coconut coir, a key substrate in soilless cultivation, presents challenges for accurate moisture detection because of its complex internal structure, which limits the understanding of water infiltration and redistribution. This study employed RGB image recognition techniques combined with machine learning algorithms to systematically investigate the effects of initial moisture content (10%, 20%, and 30%), coarse-to-fine coir volume ratio (1:0, 1:1, and 0:1), and emitter discharge rate (1.0, 1.5, and 2.0 L h⁻¹) on wetting front morphology, water transport dynamics, and moisture variation within coir substrates. Morphological features of the wetting front were extracted from images and incorporated into three machine learning models—Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest (RF), and Polynomial Regression—to construct a predictive framework for coir moisture estimation. The results showed that the SVR model achieved the best predictive performance in coarse coir substrates (R² = 0.89, RMSE = 3.37%), whereas Polynomial Regression performed best in mixed substrates (R² = 0.861, RMSE = 4.34%). All models exhibited lower accuracy in fine coir, particularly at high moisture levels. Under the same irrigation volume, increasing the initial moisture content enhanced both the water transport rate and the wetting front extent, with the aspect ratio (AR) decreasing from approximately 2.0 to 1.3, indicating a morphological transition of the wetting front from a “thumb-shaped” to a “hemispherical” pattern. Coarse particles facilitated vertical infiltration, while fine particles exhibited stronger water retention. By integrating RGB image recognition with machine learning approaches, this study achieved reliable prediction of coir moisture content and proposed an optimal management strategy using mixed substrates with an initial moisture content of 20–30% to balance infiltration efficiency and water-holding capacity while minimizing percolation risk. These findings provide a robust technical pathway for precise water management in coir-based cultivation systems.

Climate change is increasingly reshaping species habitat suitability worldwide. Primula L., the largest genus in Primulaceae, comprises 404 species in China (including 296 endemic species) and is characterized by high endemism and numerous rare and endangered taxa. However, global warming has intensified habitat fragmentation and loss, while its distribution patterns and key environmental drivers remain insufficiently understood. We compiled 7647 occurrence records of 404 wild Primula species in China and integrated 60 environmental variables (climatic, topographic, and soil factors). Using the MaxEnt model combined with ArcGIS spatial analysis, we assessed current and future habitat suitability, identified dominant environmental drivers, and quantified conservation gaps under multiple climate scenarios. Species richness is highly concentrated in Sichuan (186 species), Yunnan (177 species), and Xizang (165 species), with the Hengduan Mountains and eastern Himalayas representing the core distribution area and showing clear peripheral differentiation. The optimized MaxEnt model performed well (AUC = 0.858), identifying temperature seasonality (bio4, 39.8%) and elevation (27.1%) as the main limiting factors. The total suitable habitat area is 268.52 × 10⁴ km², with high-suitability areas mainly distributed in the Hengduan Mountains, southeastern Qinghai–Xizang Plateau, and the Central Mountain Range of Taiwan. Under three shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585), suitable habitat shows a persistent decline, most pronounced under SSP585 in the 2090s (−20.73%), accompanied by a 25.86% reduction in low-suitability areas. Localized expansion of high-suitability habitats suggests that the Hengduan Mountains and southeastern Qinghai–Xizang Plateau may act as potential climatic refugia. Habitat loss consistently exceeds habitat gain, while the distribution centroid shifts westward and northwestward, with migration distances increasing under higher-emission scenarios. Conservation gap analysis indicates that 90.01% of high-suitability habitats lie outside the current protected area network, revealing a strong mismatch between biodiversity hotspots and conservation coverage. These findings highlight the urgent need to expand protected areas and establish micro-reserves in key gap regions (southwestern Sichuan, northwestern Yunnan, southeastern Xizang, and southern Gansu), and to integrate climate-driven migration corridors into conservation planning to support long-term alpine plant persistence under climate change.