The response of vegetation to regional climate change was quantified between 1982 and 2010 in the Mongolian plateau by integrating the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) (1982–2006) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI (2000–2010). Average NDVI values for the growing season (April–October) were extracted from the AVHRR and MODIS NDVI datasets after cross-calibrating and consistency checking the dataset, based on the overlapping period of 2000–2006. Correlations between NDVI and climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) were analyzed to understand the impact of climate change on vegetation dynamics in the plateau. The results indicate that the growing-season NDVI generally exhibited an upward trend with both temperature and precipitation before the mid- or late 1990s. However, a downward trend in the NDVI with significantly decreased precipitation has been observed since the mid- or late 1990s. This is an apparent reversal in the NDVI trend from 1982 to 2010. Pixel-based analysis further indicated that the timing of the NDVI trend reversal varied across different regions and for different vegetation types. We found that approximately 66% of the plateau showed an increasing trend before the reversal year, whereas 60% showed a decreasing trend afterwards. The vegetation decline in the last decade is mostly attributable to the recent tendency towards a hotter and drier climate and the associated widespread drought stress. Monitoring precipitation stress and associated vegetation dynamics will be important for raising the alarm and performing risk assessments for drought disasters and other related natural disasters like sandstorms.

In recent years, global warming and intense human activity have been responsible for significantly altering vegetation dynamics on the Mongolian Plateau. Understanding the long-term vegetation dynamics in this region is important to assess the impact of these changes on the local ecosystem. Long-term (1982–2015), satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) datasets were used to analyse the spatio-temporal patterns of vegetation activities using linear regression and the breaks for additive season and trend methods. The links between these patterns and changes in temperature, precipitation (PRE), soil moisture (SM), and anthropogenic activity were determined using partial correlation analysis, the residual trends method, and a stepwise multiple regression model. The most significant results indicated that air temperature and potential evapotranspiration increased significantly, while the SM and PRE had markedly decreased over the past 34 years. The NDVI dataset included 71.16% of pixels showing an increase in temperature and evaporation during the growing season, particularly in eastern Mongolia and the southern border of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous region, China. The proportion indicating the breakpoint of vegetation dynamics was 71.34% of pixels, and the trend breakpoints mainly occurred in 1993, 2003, and 2010. The cumulative effects of PRE and SM in the middle period, coupled with the short-term effects of temperature and potential evapotranspiration, have had positive effects on vegetation greening. Anthropogenic factors appear to have positively impacted vegetation dynamics, as shown in 81.21% of pixels. We consider rapid economic growth, PRE, and SM to be the main driving factors in Inner Mongolia. PRE was the main climatic factor, and combined human and livestock populations were the primary anthropogenic factors influencing vegetation dynamics in Mongolia. This study is important in promoting the continued use of green projects to address environmental change in the Mongolian Plateau.

Based on the vegetation map of Mongolia, Global Inventory Monitoring and Modelling Studies (GIMMS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) (1982–2006), the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI (2000–2010), and temperature and precipitation data derived from 60 meteorological stations, this study has thoroughly examined vegetation dynamics in Mongolia and their responses to regional climate change at biome scale. To ensure continuity and consistency between the two NDVI datasets, the MODIS NDVI was first calibrated to the GIMMS NDVI based on the overlapping period of 2000–2006. Good calibration results with R² values of 0.86–0.98 between the two NDVI datasets were obtained and can detect subtle trends in the long‐term vegetation dynamics of Mongolia. The results indicated that for various biomes, although NDVI changes during 1982–2010 showed great variation, vegetation greening for all biomes in Mongolia seem to have stalled or even decreased since 1991–1994, particularly for meadow steppe (0.0015 year⁻¹), typical steppe (−0.0010 year⁻¹), and desert steppe (−0.0008 year⁻¹), which is an apparent turning point (TP) of the vegetation growth trend in Mongolia. A pronounced drying trend (from −4.399 mm year⁻¹ in meadow steppe since 1990 to −2.445 mm year⁻¹ in alpine steppe since 1993) occurred between 1990 and 1994, and persistently warming temperatures (0.015 °C year⁻¹ in alpine steppe to 0.070 °C year⁻¹ in forest and meadow steppe) until recently have likely played a major role in this NDVI trend reversal. However, the NDVI TP varied by biome, month, and climate and was not coupled exactly with climatic variables. The impact on climate of both same‐time and lagged‐time temperature and precipitation effects also varied strongly across biomes and months. On the whole, climate‐related vegetation decline and associated potential desertification trends will likely be among the major sources of ecological pressure for each biome in Mongolia, which could intensify environmental problems like sandstorms in other East Asian regions.

Inner Mongolia in China is a typically arid and semi-arid region with vegetation prominently affected by global warming and human activities. Therefore, investigating the past and future vegetation change and its impact mechanism is important for assessing the stability of the ecosystem and the ecological policy formulation. Vegetation changes, sustainability characteristics, and the mechanism of natural and anthropogenic effects in Inner Mongolia during 2000–2019 were examined using moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data. Theil–Sen trend analysis, Mann–Kendall method, and the coefficient of variation method were used to analyze the spatiotemporal variability characteristics and sustained stability of the NDVI. Furthermore, a trend estimation method based on a Seasonal Trend Model (STM), and the Hurst index was used to analyze breakpoints and change trends, and predict the likely future direction of vegetation, respectively. Additionally, the mechanisms of the compound influence of natural and anthropogenic activities on the vegetation dynamics in Inner Mongolia were explored using a Geodetector Model. The results show that the NDVI of Inner Mongolia shows an upward trend with a rate of 0.0028/year (p < 0.05) from 2000 to 2019. Spatially, the NDVI values showed a decreasing trend from the northeast to the southwest, and the interannual variation fluctuated widely, with coefficients of variation greater than 0.15, for which the high-value areas were in the territory of the Alxa League. The areas with increased, decreased, and stable vegetation patterns were approximately equal in size, in which the improved areas were mainly distributed in the northeastern part of Inner Mongolia, the stable and unchanged areas were mostly in the desert, and the degraded areas were mainly in the central-eastern part of Inner Mongolia, it shows a trend of progressive degradation from east to west. Breakpoints in the vegetation dynamics occurred mainly in the northwestern part of Inner Mongolia and the northeastern part of Hulunbuir, most of which occurred during 2011–2014. The future NDVI trend in Inner Mongolia shows an increasing trend in most areas, with only approximately 10% of the areas showing a decreasing trend. Considering the drivers of the NDVI, we observed annual precipitation, soil type, mean annual temperature, and land use type to be the main driving factors in Inner Mongolia. Annual precipitation was the first dominant factor, and when these four dominant factors interacted to influence vegetation change, they all showed interactive enhancement relationships. The results of this study will assist in understanding the influence of natural elements and human activities on vegetation changes and their driving mechanisms, while providing a scientific basis for the rational and effective protection of the ecological environment in Inner Mongolia.