The article presents a projection of Ukraine economy development up to 2040 according to the baseline scenario, taking into account the changes that have occurred during 2017-2020. Using the projection, a preliminary estimate of the forecasted demand for electricity at the national level (TOP-DOWN method) for 2040 was developed, which taking into account a new national thermal power production structure including structure of coal-fired power plants according to the NPC “Ukrenergo” 2020 Adequacy Report. Based on these data, the forecast for fuel demand in the country including coal for 2040 is developed, which takes into account consolidated economic activities, changes in household sector, the potential of energy savings from structural changes and technological changes. Also, the forecast of fuel and coal use for transformation in industrial technological processes and in power plants are calculated. The study shows that fuel consumption in the country is significantly influenced by two factors: the structure of the economy and the structure of generating capacity for electricity and heat. Reducing the share of fossil fuels in electricity generation leads to almost constant consumption. The structural potential for energy savings is almost 50% of the total. Keywords: forecast, demand, fuel, coal, structure of economy, technological potential of energy saving, method

The adoption of heat pumps in Ukraine is increasing, yet precise data on their economic viability are limited. This study compares the Levelized Cost of Heat (LCOH) in implemented and calculated heat pump systems under Ukrainian conditions. Analyzing real installations and theoretical projects, we assess ground-source and air-source heat pumps, focusing on technical indicators like the Seasonal Coefficient of Performance (SCOP) and economic factors such as the investment costs and discount rates. The findings reveal that promotional materials often underestimate the costs, leading to significant discrepancies in the LCOH. Implemented ground-source heat pump projects have investment costs constituting 20–40% of the LCOH, while for air-source heat pumps, this is 60–65%. The discount rate significantly impacts the LCOH, more than electricity costs. Air-source heat pumps in large buildings offer the lowest LCOH, whereas ground-source heat pumps in small houses have a higher LCOH due to the substantial capital investments. This study concludes that while heat pump systems can enhance energy efficiency and reduce environmental impacts in Ukraine, their economic competitiveness hinges on accurate cost assessments and favorable economic conditions.

Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy system, which led to the blackout of entire cities and the termination of district heating, highlighted the risks and disadvantages of relying on large-scale district energy supply for communities. In this context, it is important to consider the development of the energy supply of communities in the direction of their energy independence. The purpose of the article is to form a list of electricity generation and heat supply technologies for increasing the energy independence of individual territorial communities, which are appropriate for implementation in Ukraine. The article considers the criteria for the analysis and selection of technologies for distributed power generation and heat supply. An analytical overview of the following power generation and heat supply technologies is presented: solar and wind power plants, gas piston and gas turbine plants, generators, batteries, co- and trigeneration plants, biofuel power plants and heat-generating boilers, heat pumps and electric boilers, and their grouping is performed according to the established criteria. All the considered technologies contribute to reducing the external supply of communities with energy resources and reducing losses during the transmission and distribution of electricity. Technologies that use renewable energy sources and local fuels are appropriate for implementation in communities in accordance with the availability of sufficient amounts of resources. Still, in most cases, they are not able to fully provide communities with electrical and thermal energy due to their insufficient quantity and high cost of equipment, such as batteries and heat pumps. Decisions regarding the implementation of a specific technology of distributed generation should be made after a thorough analysis of the conditions and possibilities of the energy supply of each individual community. This article is aimed at discussing the options of increasing energy independence and ensuring the reliability of the energy supply of territorial communities in Ukraine.