(1) Background: the aim of this study was to create a score to predict the incidence of CPAP failure in COVID-19 patients early. (2) Methods: in this retrospective observational study, we included all consecutive adult patients admitted between February and April 2021. The main outcome was the failure of CPAP support (intubation or death). (3) Results: two-hundred and sixty-three COVID-19 patients were managed with CPAP. The population was divided in short-CPAP (CPAP days ≤ 10; 72.6%) and long-CPAP (>10; 27.4%) groups. After balancing the entire population using a stabilized IPTW method, we applied a multivariable logistic regression analysis to identify the risk factors for CPAP failure. We used the identified covariates to create a mathematical model, the CPAP Failure Score (CPAP-FS). The multivariable logistic regression analysis identified four variables: SpO₂ (OR = 0.86; p-value = 0.001), P/F ratio (OR = 0.99; p-value = 0.008), the Call Score (OR = 1.44; p-value = 0.02), and a pre-existing chronic lung disease (OR = 3.08; p-value = 0.057). The beta-coefficients obtained were used to develop the CPAP-FS, whose diagnostic ability outperformed other relevant COVID-19-related parameters (AUC = 0.87; p-value < 0.0001). We validated the CPAP-FS using a 10-fold internal cross-validation method which confirmed the observed results (AUCs 0.76–0.80; p-values < 0.0001). (4) Conclusions: the CPAP-FS can early identify COVID-19 patients who are at risk of CPAP failure.

Background: The role of Heart Rate Variability (HRV) indices in predicting the outcome of the weaning process remains a subject of debate. The aim of this study is to investigate HRV analysis in critically ill adult patients undergoing weaning from invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). Methods: The protocol of this systematic review was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42024485800). We searched PubMed and Scopus databases from inception till March 2023 to identify randomized controlled trials and observational studies investigating HRV analysis in critically ill adult patients undergoing weaning from invasive mechanical ventilation. Our primary outcome was to investigate HRV changes occurring during the weaning from IMV. Results: Seven studies (n = 342 patients) were included in this review. All studies reported significant changes in at least one HRV parameter. The indices Low Frequency (LF), High Frequency (HF), and LF/HF ratio seem to be the most promising in predicting the outcome of weaning with reliability. Some HRV indices showed modification in response to different ventilator settings or modalities. Conclusions: Available data report HRV modifications during the process of weaning and suggest a promising role of some HRV indices in predicting weaning outcomes in critically ill patients. Point-of-care HRV monitoring systems might help to early detect patients at risk of weaning failure.

Background: Liver enzyme abnormalities are common in critically ill patients, but the prognostic relevance of graded aminotransferase elevation and its timing remains uncertain. We evaluated whether Liver Enzyme Elevation (LEE) grade at ICU admission provides prognostic information beyond SAPS II in a heterogeneous ICU cohort. Methods: In this single-centre retrospective study, adult patients admitted to a mixed ICU between January 2023 and December 2024 and with ICU length of stay ≥72 h were analysed. LEE grade was assigned from AST and ALT according to predefined multiples of the local upper limit of normal, using the higher grade reached by either enzyme. The primary outcome was ICU mortality. Secondary outcomes included renal replacement therapy, ICU length of stay, and duration of invasive mechanical ventilation. A fixed logistic model including SAPS II and admission LEE grade was internally validated by bootstrap resampling. Results: Among 274 patients, ICU mortality was 27.7%. Admission LEE grade showed an adjusted association with ICU mortality (OR 1.26 per grade increase, 95% CI 1.00–1.58; p = 0.048), while SAPS II remained the dominant predictor (OR 1.04 per point, 95% CI 1.02–1.06; p < 0.001). Adding admission LEE grade to SAPS II yielded a small absolute increase in discrimination (AUC 0.737 vs. 0.703; DeLong p = 0.039). Bootstrap-corrected AUC was 0.730, with acceptable overall calibration. Admission LEE grade was also associated with RRT and longer ICU stay in exploratory secondary analyses. Conclusions: Admission LEE grade may provide modest complementary prognostic information beyond SAPS II. These findings are exploratory and require external validation before clinical implementation.