Changes in species’ habitats provide important insights into the effects of climate change. Woonyoungia septentrionalis, a critically endangered species endemic to karst ecosystems, has a highly restricted distribution and is a key biological resource. Despite its ecological importance, the factors influencing its habitat suitability and distribution remain poorly understood. This study employed ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution of Woonyoungia septentrionalis across China and analyzed shifts in centroid location to explore migration pathways under current and future climate scenarios. The model exhibited high predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.988), indicating its robustness in assessing habitat suitability. Under current climatic conditions, Woonyoungia septentrionalis is predominantly found in the Guizhou–Guangxi border region, southeastern Yunnan, eastern Sichuan, southeastern Tibet, and parts of Chongqing, Hunan, and Hubei. Among these, the Guizhou-Guangxi border represents the primary suitable habitat. Temperature factors, particularly bio6 (minimum temperature of the coldest month) and bio7 (annual temperature range), were the most significant determinants of habitat suitability, contributing 43.29% and 12.65%, respectively. Soil cation exchange capacity (CEC) accounted for 15.82%, while precipitation had a relatively minor impact. Under future climate scenarios, suitable habitats for Woonyoungia septentrionalis are projected to shrink and shift toward higher altitudes and latitudes, increasing the risk of extinction due to the “mountain trap” effect, where migration is constrained by limited habitat at higher elevations. Stable habitats, particularly in Libo (Guizhou) and Huanjiang (Guangxi), are identified as critical refugia. We recommend prioritizing shrinking and stable habitats in Guizhou, Guangxi, and Yunnan for in situ conservation. Ex situ conservation efforts should focus on areas identified based on key environmental factors and predicted migration pathways to ensure the species’ long-term survival. This study provides both theoretical and practical guidance for the conservation of this species and its vulnerable habitat.

In recent years, the impacts of climate change and human activities have intensified the loss and fragmentation of habitats for wild rare Magnoliaceae. Predicting the potential impacts of future climate change on the suitable habitat distribution of wild and endangered Magnoliaceae species is of great significance for their conservation and application. This study employs the optimized MaxEnt model to investigate current and future potential suitable habitats of three rare Magnoliaceae species (Michelia crassipes, Lirianthe coco, and Manglietia insignis). The dominant environmental variables influencing the distribution of three species were also explored. The results showed the following: (1) The potential habitat range of three Magnoliaceae species currently span from 92–122° N and 19–36° E. Variables associated with temperature (bio2, bio9, bio4) and altitude (Ele) significantly influence the distribution of these species, with precipitation (bio17) and ultraviolet radiation (UVB4) playing a minor role. The warm and humid climate in central and southern China is highly conducive to their growth. (2) Under the SSP126 scenario, after the mid-21st century, the suitable habitat area of Michelia crassipes has undergone a fluctuating trend of initial increase followed by decrease, reducing to 51.84 × 10⁴ km² in 2090. On the other hand, both the suitable habitat areas of Lirianthe coco and Manglietia insignis show an upward trend. Under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, the total suitable habitat areas of these three rare Magnoliaceae species gradually decrease. (3) We compared the priority protection areas with existing Protected Areas (PAs) in gap analysis; 96.84% of priority conservation areas are lacking effective protection. (4) The distribution centroid is constantly moving to western China. In order to address habitat fragmentation, it is recommended that the range of natural reserves be expanded and ecological corridors be established in the future, preferably according to the predicted suitable climate for protected areas and refuges or habitats for these species. Overall, these findings provide valuable insights for the preservation, stewardship, and utilization of the endangered species of Magnoliaceae under the circumstances of projected global climate change.

Magnoliaceae, an ancient lineage of relict plants, were once extensively distributed throughout geological history. Understanding their species diversity, geographic distribution patterns, and hotspots is essential for providing a theoretical foundation for germplasm resource assessment, conservation, and utilization. This study presents a comprehensive catalog of wild Magnoliaceae species in China, derived from an extensive literature review integrating geographic distribution and endemism data. Utilizing GIS 10.2 software, we analyzed data from up to July 2024, revealing that China hosts 157 wild Magnoliaceae species across 13 genera, including 11 varieties, two subspecies, and three forms. These species are distributed across 24 provincial-level administrative regions, including special administrative regions and municipalities. Yunnan Province exhibits the highest species richness, with 12 genera and 94 species, followed by Guizhou, with 9 genera and 65 species, and Guangxi, with 9 genera and 62 species. At the county level, species are found in 609 regions, with Malipo County in Yunnan recording the highest count (32 species), followed by Leishan County in Guizhou (28 species). Vertically, Magnoliaceae are most abundant in the H3 elevation band (1000 < H3 ≤ 1500 m), while the H7 elevation band (H7 > 3000 m) shows the lowest species diversity. China has two endemic genera, Pachylarnax and Woonyoungia, along with 102 endemic species, of which Michelia accounts for the highest number of endemics at 33. The species composition in Guizhou shows significant similarity to that in Guangxi, Sichuan, and Yunnan, indicating close phylogenetic relationships among these floras. The Yunnan–Guizhou–Guangxi region is identified as a “modern distribution center”, “diversity preservation center”, “hotspot”, and “refuge” for wild Magnoliaceae in China. This study highlights the importance of understanding the diversity and distribution patterns of wild Magnoliaceae for the effective conservation, development, and sustainable utilization of plant resources.