The impacts of climate change on the water availability of Zarrine River Basin (ZRB), the headwater of Lake Urmia, in western Iran, with the Boukan Dam, are simulated under various climate scenarios up to year 2029, using the SWAT hydrological model. The latter is driven by meteorological variables predicted from MPI-ESM-LR-GCM (precipitation) and CanESM2-GCM (temperature) GCM models with RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios, and downscaled with Quantile Mapping (QM) bias-correction and SDSM, respectively. From two variants of QM employed, the Empirical-CDF-QM model decreased the biases of raw GCM- precipitation predictors particularly strongly. SWAT was then calibrated and validated with historical (1981–2011) ZR-streamflow, using the SWAT-CUP model. The subsequent SWAT-simulations for the future period 2012–2029 indicate that the predicted climate change for all RCPs will lead to a reduction of the inflow to Boukan Dam as well as of the overall water yield of ZRB, mainly due to a 23–35% future precipitation reduction, with a concomitant reduction of the groundwater baseflow to the main channel. Nevertheless, the future runoff-coefficient shows a 3%, 2% and 1% increase, as the −2% to −26% decrease of the surface runoff is overcompensated by the named precipitation decrease. In summary, based on these predictions, together with the expecting increase of demands due to the agricultural and other developments, the ZRB is likely to face a water shortage in the near future as the water yield will decrease by −17% to −39%, unless some adaptation plans are implemented for a better management of water resources.

A vital key to the development of a reservoir eutrophication management strategy is to link the watershed-nutrient model to the model of reservoir water quality. To develop a cost-effective optimization model, a coupled watershed-reservoir model with an optimization model has been developed to design control strategies in the watershed in a planning time horizon. This methodology can help reduce the phosphorus concentration of a reservoir to the standard level. In this study, the weather data for the next 10 years was generated using downscaled GCM data to simulate the watershed phosphorus load using the SWAT model. Then an optimal model for selection and placement of best management practices (BMP) at watershed scale is developed by linking the coupled watershed and reservoir models with a genetic algorithm. This model is able to identify the minimum present cost design (type and location) of BMP structural alternatives. The objective of water quality is obtained using a system dynamic model for reservoi...