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Based on the data of 82 meteorological stations and six representative hydrological stations in four provinces in Southwest China (Guizhou, Sichuan, Yunnan, Chongqing), this paper uses standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and standardized runoff index (SRI) to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of drought in the study area from 1968 to 2018. Combined with the Southwest monsoon index and historical drought data, the correlation of drought and the applicability of different drought indices were verified. The results show that: (1) SPEI-12 in Southwest China shows a downward trend from 1968 to 2018, with a linear trend rate of −0.074/10a, and SPEI-3 has a downward trend in four seasons, the maximum linear trend rate being −0.106/10a in autumn;(2) The change in SRI-12 and SRI-24 value directly reflected the decrease in SRI value, indicating that drought events are increasing in recent times, especially in the 21st century (3). Severe drought occurred in the south of Southwest China, as indicated by the increase of drought frequency in this area. The main reason for the variations in the frequency distribution of drought in Southwest China is the combined effect of the change of precipitation and evapotranspiration. (4) The correlation between hydrological drought index and disaster areas is stronger than the correlation between meteorological drought and disaster areas.
Han Tang; Tong Wen; Peng Shi; Simin Qu; Lanlan Zhao; Qiongfang Li. Analysis of Characteristics of Hydrological and Meteorological Drought Evolution in Southwest China. Water 2021, 13, 1846 .
AMA StyleHan Tang, Tong Wen, Peng Shi, Simin Qu, Lanlan Zhao, Qiongfang Li. Analysis of Characteristics of Hydrological and Meteorological Drought Evolution in Southwest China. Water. 2021; 13 (13):1846.
Chicago/Turabian StyleHan Tang; Tong Wen; Peng Shi; Simin Qu; Lanlan Zhao; Qiongfang Li. 2021. "Analysis of Characteristics of Hydrological and Meteorological Drought Evolution in Southwest China." Water 13, no. 13: 1846.
The simulation of overland flow, wherein runoff yield and concentration are influenced by topography, is fundamental to hydrological forecasting. Therefore, critically evaluating the characteristics of overland flow under the influence of topographic depressions—which are one of the most common microtopographic structures—is vital for improving current hydrological models. In this study, we developed a solution for the real-world application of overland flow simulations under the influence of depressions in hydrological models. A relative depression storage–outflow curve (RDOC) was proposed to investigate surface outflow processes. Experiments were conducted based on the variable-controlling approach using three rainfall return periods, four slopes, and four depression rates while ensuring a consistent initial soil moisture content. A homogenized RDOC was achieved based on shape analysis; it was parameterized by the outflow threshold and the reciprocal of the curve index of two outflow stages (B and D). A relative depression storage–outflow function (RDOF) was generated and a complete calculation procedure was applied within a hydrological model. Furthermore, we analyzed the hydrological responses to parameters of different hydrological factors to improve our understanding of the parameter determination of the RDOF.
Lin Hu; Weimin Bao; Peng Shi; Jianjin Wang; Meixia Lu. Simulation of overland flow considering the influence of topographic depressions. Scientific Reports 2020, 10, 6128 -14.
AMA StyleLin Hu, Weimin Bao, Peng Shi, Jianjin Wang, Meixia Lu. Simulation of overland flow considering the influence of topographic depressions. Scientific Reports. 2020; 10 (1):6128-14.
Chicago/Turabian StyleLin Hu; Weimin Bao; Peng Shi; Jianjin Wang; Meixia Lu. 2020. "Simulation of overland flow considering the influence of topographic depressions." Scientific Reports 10, no. 1: 6128-14.
The objective of this paper is to investigate the projected regional responses of univariate and bivariate behaviors of extreme precipitation to climate change over the upper-middle Huaihe River Basin. Based on twelve GCM outputs under historical, RCP4.5 and the observations at 32 rainfall stations, the equidistant cumulative distribution function matching method (EDCDFm) was utilized to bias correct daily precipitation during the historical (1961–2005) and future (2021–2080) periods. Four precipitation indices combinations were introduced based on eight precipitation indices to characterize the regional-scale changes of precipitation events, which designate the duration, intensity and amount of heavy and weak precipitation in a year. Their dependence structures were captured by Copulas. Kendall return period (KRP) were applied to discuss hazard scenarios and we quantified the spatial variability of KRPs under different marginal values. The results indicated that projected precipitation characteristics including the average intensity, the amount of annual precipitation, the intensity and amount of extreme precipitation together with annual extremes displayed increasing trends, while the changes of consecutive wet and dry days did not present pronounced trends. Decreased KRPs in the vast majority of the territory manifested that the frequency of simultaneous floods and droughts in a year as well as that of extreme heavy precipitation events would augment. Obvious spatial heterogeneity of the changes of KRP was partly attributed to the topography difference, especially the coastal areas along the main stream of the Huaihe River. Consequently, there will be a higher risk of water resources-related issues in this region for upcoming decades.
Shiyu Mou; Peng Shi; Simin Qu; Ying Feng; Chen Chen; Fengcheng Dong. Projected regional responses of precipitation extremes and their joint probabilistic behaviors to climate change in the upper and middle reaches of Huaihe River Basin, China. Atmospheric Research 2020, 240, 104942 .
AMA StyleShiyu Mou, Peng Shi, Simin Qu, Ying Feng, Chen Chen, Fengcheng Dong. Projected regional responses of precipitation extremes and their joint probabilistic behaviors to climate change in the upper and middle reaches of Huaihe River Basin, China. Atmospheric Research. 2020; 240 ():104942.
Chicago/Turabian StyleShiyu Mou; Peng Shi; Simin Qu; Ying Feng; Chen Chen; Fengcheng Dong. 2020. "Projected regional responses of precipitation extremes and their joint probabilistic behaviors to climate change in the upper and middle reaches of Huaihe River Basin, China." Atmospheric Research 240, no. : 104942.
The determination of characteristic flow velocity is a hydrodynamic problem needs to be solved in the application of geomorphologic instantaneous unit hydrograph (GIUH) for runoff simulation in areas with no or limited data. In this study, 120 watersheds are collected to construct a regression model; 85 of these basins are used for regression analysis, and the 35 remaining basins are utilized to verify the feasibility of the constructed model. Random forest algorithm is applied to screen out important geomorphologic factors from the 16 extracted factors that may affect flow velocity. Multivariate regression is used to establish the numerical relationship between velocity and the selected factors. Sensitivity analysis of each adopted factor in the constructed model is conducted using the LH-OAT method. The rationality and feasibility of the regression model are validated by comparing the flow velocity calculation with a previous approach, which is also calculated based on geomorphological parameters. Subsequently, the runoff simulation based on the GIUH model is evaluated using the proposed technique. Results demonstrate that the proposed formula possesses high fitting accuracy and can be easily used to calculate flow velocity and generate GIUH.
Yingbing Chen; Peng Shi; Xiaomin Ji; Simin Qu; Lanlan Zhao; Fengcheng Dong. New method to calculate the dynamic factor–flow velocity in Geomorphologic instantaneous unit hydrograph. Scientific Reports 2019, 9, 1 -13.
AMA StyleYingbing Chen, Peng Shi, Xiaomin Ji, Simin Qu, Lanlan Zhao, Fengcheng Dong. New method to calculate the dynamic factor–flow velocity in Geomorphologic instantaneous unit hydrograph. Scientific Reports. 2019; 9 (1):1-13.
Chicago/Turabian StyleYingbing Chen; Peng Shi; Xiaomin Ji; Simin Qu; Lanlan Zhao; Fengcheng Dong. 2019. "New method to calculate the dynamic factor–flow velocity in Geomorphologic instantaneous unit hydrograph." Scientific Reports 9, no. 1: 1-13.
The hydrology response was studied considering the established fact of land use change in Dapoling basin. The whole period was divided into two (1965–1985 and 1986–2012) according to the major land use and land cover change in this region. Xinanjiang model was used to simulate discharge data in the two periods. The hydrologic response to the change could be evaluated by inspecting the response of model parameters and flood elements. The results show that the lag time varied, and the hydrologic elements including the mean runoff depth, flood peak and kurtosis coefficient varied with the rainfall depth. This result is significant for studying the response of runoff characteristic from land use and land cover change.
Minmin Zhou; Simin Qu; Xueqiu Chen; Peng Shi; Shijin Xu; Hongyu Chen; Huiyan Zhou; Jianfeng Gou. Impact Assessments of Rainfall–Runoff Characteristics Response Based on Land Use Change via Hydrological Simulation. Water 2019, 11, 866 .
AMA StyleMinmin Zhou, Simin Qu, Xueqiu Chen, Peng Shi, Shijin Xu, Hongyu Chen, Huiyan Zhou, Jianfeng Gou. Impact Assessments of Rainfall–Runoff Characteristics Response Based on Land Use Change via Hydrological Simulation. Water. 2019; 11 (4):866.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMinmin Zhou; Simin Qu; Xueqiu Chen; Peng Shi; Shijin Xu; Hongyu Chen; Huiyan Zhou; Jianfeng Gou. 2019. "Impact Assessments of Rainfall–Runoff Characteristics Response Based on Land Use Change via Hydrological Simulation." Water 11, no. 4: 866.
The geomorphologic instantaneous unit hydrograph (GIUH) is an applicable approach that simulates the runoff for the ungauged basins. The nash model is an efficient tool to derive the unit hydrograph (UH), which only requires two items, including the indices n and k. Theoretically, the GIUH method describes the process of a droplet flowing from which it falls on to the basin outlet, only covering the flow concentration process. The traditional technique for flood estimation using GIUH method always uses the effective rainfall, which is empirically obtained and scant of accuracy, and then calculates the convolution of the effective rainfall and GIUH. To improve the predictive capability of the GIUH model, the Xin’anjiang (XAJ) model, which is a conceptual model with clear physical meaning, is applied to simulate the runoff yielding and the slope flow concentration, integrating with the GIUH derived based on Nash model to compute the river network flow convergence, forming a modified GIUH model for flood simulation. The average flow velocity is the key to obtain the indices k, and two methods to calculate the flow velocity were compared in this study. 10 flood events in three catchments in Fujian, China are selected to calibrate the model, and six for validation. Four criteria, including the time-to-peak error, the relative peak flow error, the relative runoff depth error, and the Nash–Sutcliff efficiency coefficient are computed for the model performance evaluation. The observed runoff value and simulated series in validation stage is also presented in the scatter plots to analyze the fitting degree. The analysis results show the modified model with a convenient calculation and a high fitting and illustrates that the model is reliable for the flood estimation and has potential for practical flood forecasting.
Yingbing Chen; Peng Shi; Simin Qu; Xiaomin Ji; Lanlan Zhao; Jianfeng Gou; Shiyu Mou. Integrating XAJ Model with GIUH Based on Nash Model for Rainfall-Runoff Modelling. Water 2019, 11, 772 .
AMA StyleYingbing Chen, Peng Shi, Simin Qu, Xiaomin Ji, Lanlan Zhao, Jianfeng Gou, Shiyu Mou. Integrating XAJ Model with GIUH Based on Nash Model for Rainfall-Runoff Modelling. Water. 2019; 11 (4):772.
Chicago/Turabian StyleYingbing Chen; Peng Shi; Simin Qu; Xiaomin Ji; Lanlan Zhao; Jianfeng Gou; Shiyu Mou. 2019. "Integrating XAJ Model with GIUH Based on Nash Model for Rainfall-Runoff Modelling." Water 11, no. 4: 772.
This study investigates the temporal variation of stable isotopic composition in precipitation, soil water, and streamflow water during the plum rainfall events in an upland headwater watershed which is mainly covered with bamboo. The results show that the isotopic composition of various water sources exhibit significant temporal variation. The local meteoric water line is established by using the relationship between the stable isotope of oxygen-18 and deuterium, which is slightly different from the meteoric water line of China. The isotopic temporal variation of precipitation is closely related to exchange effect between raindrops and environmental vapor, evaporation fractionation and rainfall intensity. The isotopic variation of shallow soil water is mainly determined by canopy interception, ground evaporation and the mixing with pre-event water; as for the isotopic variation of deep soil water, it is virtually influenced by pre-event water. The most enriched isotopic composition of streamflow and deuterium excess (d-excess) differences between streamflow and rainfall both indicate that streamflow is recharged not only by event water but also by pre-event water. Hence, a better understanding of precipitation formation and the hydrological response under the plum rainfall system may be instructive for the management of water resources in humid watersheds in southern China.
Jianfeng Gou; Simin Qu; Peng Shi; Dachen Li; Xueqiu Chen; Yingbin Chen; Wei Si; Yongyu Xie. Stable isotope tracers as diagnostic tools in studying water sources in a humid bamboo watershed during the plum rainfall events. Water Policy 2019, 21, 368 -381.
AMA StyleJianfeng Gou, Simin Qu, Peng Shi, Dachen Li, Xueqiu Chen, Yingbin Chen, Wei Si, Yongyu Xie. Stable isotope tracers as diagnostic tools in studying water sources in a humid bamboo watershed during the plum rainfall events. Water Policy. 2019; 21 (2):368-381.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJianfeng Gou; Simin Qu; Peng Shi; Dachen Li; Xueqiu Chen; Yingbin Chen; Wei Si; Yongyu Xie. 2019. "Stable isotope tracers as diagnostic tools in studying water sources in a humid bamboo watershed during the plum rainfall events." Water Policy 21, no. 2: 368-381.
The issue of regional design flood composition should be considered when it comes to the analysis of multiple sections. However, the uncertainty accompanied in the process of regional design flood composition point identification is often overlooked in the literature. The purpose of this paper, therefore, is to uncover the sensibility of marginal distribution selection and the impact of sampling uncertainty caused by the limited records on two copula-based conditional regional design flood composition methods, i.e., the conditional expectation regional design flood composition (CEC) method and the conditional most likely regional design flood composition (CMLC) method, which are developed to derive the combinations of maximum 30-day flood volumes at the two sub-basins above Bengbu hydrological station for given univariate return periods. An experiment combing different marginal distributions was conducted to explore the former uncertainty source, while a conditional copula-based parametric bootstrapping (CC-PB) procedure together with five metrics (i.e., horizontal standard deviation, vertical standard deviation, area of 25%, 50%, 75% BCIs (bivariate confidence intervals)) were designed and employed subsequently to evaluate the latter uncertainty source. The results indicated that the CEC and CMLC point identification was closely bound up with the different combinations of univariate distributions in spite of the comparatively tiny difference of the fitting performances of seven candidate univariate distributions, and was greatly affected by the sampling uncertainty due to the limited observations, which should arouse critical attention. Both of the analyzed sources of uncertainty increased with the growing T (univariate return period). As for the comparison of the two proposed methods, it seemed that the uncertainty due to the marginal selection had a slight larger impact on the CEC scheme than the CMLC scheme; but in terms of sampling uncertainty, the CMLC method performed slightly stable for large floods, while when considering moderate and small floods, the CEC method performed better.
Shiyu Mou; Peng Shi; Simin Qu; Xiaomin Ji; Lanlan Zhao; Ying Feng; Chen Chen; Fengcheng Dong. Uncertainty Analysis of Two Copula-Based Conditional Regional Design Flood Composition Methods: A Case Study of Huai River, China. Water 2018, 10, 1872 .
AMA StyleShiyu Mou, Peng Shi, Simin Qu, Xiaomin Ji, Lanlan Zhao, Ying Feng, Chen Chen, Fengcheng Dong. Uncertainty Analysis of Two Copula-Based Conditional Regional Design Flood Composition Methods: A Case Study of Huai River, China. Water. 2018; 10 (12):1872.
Chicago/Turabian StyleShiyu Mou; Peng Shi; Simin Qu; Xiaomin Ji; Lanlan Zhao; Ying Feng; Chen Chen; Fengcheng Dong. 2018. "Uncertainty Analysis of Two Copula-Based Conditional Regional Design Flood Composition Methods: A Case Study of Huai River, China." Water 10, no. 12: 1872.
To date, floods have become one of the most severe natural disasters on Earth. Flood forecasting with hydrological models is an important non-engineering measure for flood control and disaster reduction. The Xin’anjiang (XAJ) model is the most widely used hydrological model in China for flood forecasting, while the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is widely applied for daily and monthly simulation and has shown its potential for flood simulation. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the performance of the SWAT model in simulating floods at a sub-daily time-scale in a slightly larger basin and compare that with the XAJ model. Taking Qilijie Basin (southeast of China) as a study area, this paper developed the XAJ model and SWAT model at a sub-daily time-scale. The results showed that the XAJ model had a better performance than the sub-daily SWAT model regarding relative runoff error (RRE) but the SWAT model performed well according to relative peak discharge error (RPE) and error of occurrence time of peak flow (PTE). The SWAT model performed unsatisfactorily in simulating low flows due to the daily calculation of base flow but behaved quite well in simulating high flows. We also evaluated the effect of spatial scale on the SWAT model. The results showed that the SWAT model had a good applicability at different spatial scales. In conclusion, the sub-daily SWAT model is a promising tool for flood simulation though more improvements remain to be studied further.
Dachen Li; Simin Qu; Peng Shi; Xueqiu Chen; Feng Xue; Jianfeng Gou; Wenhao Zhang. Development and Integration of Sub-Daily Flood Modelling Capability within the SWAT Model and a Comparison with XAJ Model. Water 2018, 10, 1263 .
AMA StyleDachen Li, Simin Qu, Peng Shi, Xueqiu Chen, Feng Xue, Jianfeng Gou, Wenhao Zhang. Development and Integration of Sub-Daily Flood Modelling Capability within the SWAT Model and a Comparison with XAJ Model. Water. 2018; 10 (9):1263.
Chicago/Turabian StyleDachen Li; Simin Qu; Peng Shi; Xueqiu Chen; Feng Xue; Jianfeng Gou; Wenhao Zhang. 2018. "Development and Integration of Sub-Daily Flood Modelling Capability within the SWAT Model and a Comparison with XAJ Model." Water 10, no. 9: 1263.
The stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen in the water cycle have become a significant tool to study run-off formation, hydrograph separation, and the origin of precipitation. Precipitation assessment based on isotopic data has a potential implication for moisture sources. In the study, δD and δ18O of precipitation samples collected from six rainfall events were analyzed for stable isotope composition to provide implication of isotopic characteristics as well as moisture sources in Hemuqiao basin within Lake Tai drainage basin, eastern China. In these events, stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopic composition of precipitation had strong variations. Models of the meteoric water line and deuterium excess for different rainfall types (typhoon and plum rain, which is caused by precipitation along a persistent stationary front known as the Meiyu front for nearly two months during the late spring and early summer between eastern Russia, China, Taiwan, Korea and Japan) were established. Compared with plum rain, the moisture source of typhoon events had higher relative humidity and temperature. Moisture transport pathways were traced using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT Model, developed by NOAA, Washington DC, U.S.) to verify the linkage with isotopic composition and moisture source. The moisture sources of typhoon events mostly derived from tropical ocean air with higher isotopic value, while that of plum rain events came from near-source local air with lower isotopic value.
Simin Qu; Xueqiu Chen; Yifan Wang; Peng Shi; Shuai Shan; Jianfeng Gou; Peng Jiang. Isotopic Characteristics of Precipitation and Origin of Moisture Sources in Hemuqiao Catchment, a Small Watershed in the Lower Reach of Yangtze River. Water 2018, 10, 1170 .
AMA StyleSimin Qu, Xueqiu Chen, Yifan Wang, Peng Shi, Shuai Shan, Jianfeng Gou, Peng Jiang. Isotopic Characteristics of Precipitation and Origin of Moisture Sources in Hemuqiao Catchment, a Small Watershed in the Lower Reach of Yangtze River. Water. 2018; 10 (9):1170.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSimin Qu; Xueqiu Chen; Yifan Wang; Peng Shi; Shuai Shan; Jianfeng Gou; Peng Jiang. 2018. "Isotopic Characteristics of Precipitation and Origin of Moisture Sources in Hemuqiao Catchment, a Small Watershed in the Lower Reach of Yangtze River." Water 10, no. 9: 1170.
The main purpose of this study is to explore the runoff generation mechanism and isotopic variation of precipitation during typhoon and plum rain events in the mountainous region mainly covered with bamboo in southeastern China. The isotopic value of precipitation in plum rain events is more depleted than that of precipitation in typhoon events and has a larger range of d-excess. Typhoon events are affected by frequent temperate and tropical cyclones, the ocean evaporationis expected to be very intenseand marine air parcels move very quickly. As for plum rain events, marine air parcel moves slowly due to the blocking effect of the cold front and air moisture evaporated from the continent plays a significant role in the isotope of precipitation depletion process. The difference of stable isotope values in various water sources allows the two-component hydrological separation to quantify the contribution of the event and pre-event water. The results indicate that the pre-event water accounts for at least 60% of the discharge and the difference in proportion of pre-event water between different types of rain events suggests that the initial state of watershed, rainfall intensity and macropore flow are major control factors of the runoff production mechanism.
Jianfeng Gou; Simin Qu; Peng Shi; Dachen Li; Xueqiu Chen; Yifan Wang; Shuai Shan; Wei Si. Application of Stable Isotope Tracer to Study Runoff Generation during Different Types of Rainfall Events. Water 2018, 10, 538 .
AMA StyleJianfeng Gou, Simin Qu, Peng Shi, Dachen Li, Xueqiu Chen, Yifan Wang, Shuai Shan, Wei Si. Application of Stable Isotope Tracer to Study Runoff Generation during Different Types of Rainfall Events. Water. 2018; 10 (5):538.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJianfeng Gou; Simin Qu; Peng Shi; Dachen Li; Xueqiu Chen; Yifan Wang; Shuai Shan; Wei Si. 2018. "Application of Stable Isotope Tracer to Study Runoff Generation during Different Types of Rainfall Events." Water 10, no. 5: 538.
A better understanding of the runoff variations contributes to a better utilization of water resources and water conservancy planning. In this paper, we analyzed the runoff changes in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) including the spatiotemporal characteristics of intra-annual variation, the trend, the mutation point, and the period of annual runoff using various statistical methods. We also investigated how changes in the precipitation and temperature could impact on runoff. We found that the intra-annual runoff shows a decreasing trend from 1954 to 2008 and from upper stream to lower stream. On the annual runoff sequence, the upstream runoff has a high consistency and shows an increasing diversity from upper stream to lower stream. The mutation points of the annual runoff in the YRB are years 1961 and 2004. Annual runoff presents multitime scales for dry and abundance changes. Hurst values show that the runoffs at the main control stations all have Hurst phenomenon (the persistence of annual runoff). The sensitivity analyses of runoff variation to precipitation and temperature were also conducted. Our results show that the response of runoff to precipitation is more sensitive than that to temperature. The response of runoff to temperature is only one-third of the response to precipitation. A decrease in temperature may offset the impact of decreasing rainfall on runoff, while an increase in both rainfall and temperature leads to strongest runoff variations in the YRB.
Ziwei Xiao; Peng Shi; Peng Jiang; Jianwei Hu; Simin Qu; Xingyu Chen; Yingbing Chen; Yunqiu Dai; Jianjin Wang. The Spatiotemporal Variations of Runoff in the Yangtze River Basin under Climate Change. Advances in Meteorology 2018, 2018, 1 -14.
AMA StyleZiwei Xiao, Peng Shi, Peng Jiang, Jianwei Hu, Simin Qu, Xingyu Chen, Yingbing Chen, Yunqiu Dai, Jianjin Wang. The Spatiotemporal Variations of Runoff in the Yangtze River Basin under Climate Change. Advances in Meteorology. 2018; 2018 ():1-14.
Chicago/Turabian StyleZiwei Xiao; Peng Shi; Peng Jiang; Jianwei Hu; Simin Qu; Xingyu Chen; Yingbing Chen; Yunqiu Dai; Jianjin Wang. 2018. "The Spatiotemporal Variations of Runoff in the Yangtze River Basin under Climate Change." Advances in Meteorology 2018, no. : 1-14.
Flooding contributes to tremendous hazards every year; more accurate forecasting may significantly mitigate the damages and loss caused by flood disasters. Current hydrological models are either purely knowledge-based or data-driven. A combination of data-driven method (artificial neural networks in this paper) and knowledge-based method (traditional hydrological model) may booster simulation accuracy. In this study, we proposed a new back-propagation (BP) neural network algorithm and applied it in the semi-distributed Xinanjiang (XAJ) model. The improved hydrological model is capable of updating the flow forecasting error without losing the leading time. The proposed method was tested in a real case study for both single period corrections and real-time corrections. The results reveal that the proposed method could significantly increase the accuracy of flood forecasting and indicate that the global correction effect is superior to the second-order autoregressive correction method in real-time correction.
Jianjin Wang; Peng Shi; Peng Jiang; Jianwei Hu; Simin Qu; Xingyu Chen; Yingbing Chen; Yunqiu Dai; Ziwei Xiao. Application of BP Neural Network Algorithm in Traditional Hydrological Model for Flood Forecasting. Water 2017, 9, 48 .
AMA StyleJianjin Wang, Peng Shi, Peng Jiang, Jianwei Hu, Simin Qu, Xingyu Chen, Yingbing Chen, Yunqiu Dai, Ziwei Xiao. Application of BP Neural Network Algorithm in Traditional Hydrological Model for Flood Forecasting. Water. 2017; 9 (1):48.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJianjin Wang; Peng Shi; Peng Jiang; Jianwei Hu; Simin Qu; Xingyu Chen; Yingbing Chen; Yunqiu Dai; Ziwei Xiao. 2017. "Application of BP Neural Network Algorithm in Traditional Hydrological Model for Flood Forecasting." Water 9, no. 1: 48.
Changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation have great impacts on drought/flood risk and utilization of water resources. In this study, we presented the results of a comparative analysis of spatial-temporal variability of precipitation in the Southwest China. The analysis investigated the trends of annual precipitation and explored the changes of two indices: the precipitation concentration index (PCI) and the concentration index (CI) which are designed for measuring seasonality and daily heterogeneity, respectively. The trends of annual precipitation and CI were tested by the Mann-Kendall method. The results show a significant seasonality of the rainfall distribution and very inhomogeneous temporal distribution of the daily rainfall in the study area. Positive trends in the CI were found at most stations, although most of them were not statistically significant. To detect the futures trends of precipitation in the study area, Hurst’s rescaled range (R/S) analysis was introduced and the corresponding Hurst Exponent was estimated. The results suggested that some drought hazards will happen in the intersection of Sichuan, Guizhou and Yunnan, and the west part of Sichuan, the north part of Chongqing and the middle part of Yunnan are under the risk of flood in the future.
Peng Shi; Miao Wu; Simin Qu; Peng Jiang; Xueyuan Qiao; Xi Chen; Mi Zhou; Zhicai Zhang. Spatial Distribution and Temporal Trends in Precipitation Concentration Indices for the Southwest China. Water Resources Management 2015, 29, 3941 -3955.
AMA StylePeng Shi, Miao Wu, Simin Qu, Peng Jiang, Xueyuan Qiao, Xi Chen, Mi Zhou, Zhicai Zhang. Spatial Distribution and Temporal Trends in Precipitation Concentration Indices for the Southwest China. Water Resources Management. 2015; 29 (11):3941-3955.
Chicago/Turabian StylePeng Shi; Miao Wu; Simin Qu; Peng Jiang; Xueyuan Qiao; Xi Chen; Mi Zhou; Zhicai Zhang. 2015. "Spatial Distribution and Temporal Trends in Precipitation Concentration Indices for the Southwest China." Water Resources Management 29, no. 11: 3941-3955.
Karst aquifers are known for their heterogeneous physical properties and irregular complex flow patterns which make it a challenge to describe the hydrological behavior and to quantitatively define the distribution of river flow components using hydrologic models. In this paper, a conceptual lumped hydrologic model, Xin’anjiang model (XAJ), was applied in Sancha River, which is a karst basin in southwest China, for the simulation of streamflow. The performance of XAJ model was evaluated based on the model’s ability to reproduce the streamflow and baseflow. Percentage of bias (PBIAS), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), coefficient of determination (R2), and standard deviation (RSR) were calculated between the simulated and measured flow for both calibration and validation period. The low PBIAS and RSR (2.7% and 0.367 for calibration period, 1.3% and 0.376 for validation period) and the high NSE andR2(0.866 and 0.866 for calibration period, 0.858 and 0.860 for validation period) indicate that the model structure and parameters are of reasonable validity. Furthermore, streamflow was separated to baseflow and surface flow using the “baseflow programme,” and the calculated results indicate that the model could also reproduce the response of baseflow in such karst system.
Peng Shi; Mi Zhou; Simin Qu; Xi Chen; Xueyuan Qiao; Zhicai Zhang; Xinxin Ma. Testing a Conceptual Lumped Model in Karst Area, Southwest China. Journal of Applied Mathematics 2013, 2013, 1 -10.
AMA StylePeng Shi, Mi Zhou, Simin Qu, Xi Chen, Xueyuan Qiao, Zhicai Zhang, Xinxin Ma. Testing a Conceptual Lumped Model in Karst Area, Southwest China. Journal of Applied Mathematics. 2013; 2013 ():1-10.
Chicago/Turabian StylePeng Shi; Mi Zhou; Simin Qu; Xi Chen; Xueyuan Qiao; Zhicai Zhang; Xinxin Ma. 2013. "Testing a Conceptual Lumped Model in Karst Area, Southwest China." Journal of Applied Mathematics 2013, no. : 1-10.
Water scarcity in Huaihe River, the sixth largest river in China, is stressed by the changing climate and intense human activities, especially in the headwater area. Xixian, situated in the upper reaches of the Huai River, is an important agricultural county with a population of more than one million people, and nearly one billion kg of crop yield every year. The projected climate changes and increasing population are expected to further complicate the utilization of already stressed water resources, endangering the agricultural activities in this area. There is pressing need for a watershed model to better understand the interaction between land use activities and hydrologic processes and to support sustainable water use. This study evaluated the performance of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for hydrologic modeling in the Xixian basin; three methods of calibration and uncertainty analysis (sequential uncertainty fitting, generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation, and parameter solution) were compared and used to set up the model. The results showed that SWAT performs well in the Xixian River basin, that the hydrological water balance analysis of the basin indicated that base flow is an important aspect of the total discharge within the study area, and that more than 60% of the annual precipitation is lost through evapotranspiration. The calibrated model can be used to further analyze the effects of climate and land use changes and to investigate the effects of different cultivation styles and management scenarios on local water resources.
Peng Shi; Yuanbing Hou; Yongyu Xie; Chao Chen; Xi Chen; Qiongfang Li; Simin Qu; Xiuqin Fang; Ragahavan Srinivasan. Application of a SWAT Model for Hydrological Modeling in the Xixian Watershed, China. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 2013, 18, 1522 -1529.
AMA StylePeng Shi, Yuanbing Hou, Yongyu Xie, Chao Chen, Xi Chen, Qiongfang Li, Simin Qu, Xiuqin Fang, Ragahavan Srinivasan. Application of a SWAT Model for Hydrological Modeling in the Xixian Watershed, China. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering. 2013; 18 (11):1522-1529.
Chicago/Turabian StylePeng Shi; Yuanbing Hou; Yongyu Xie; Chao Chen; Xi Chen; Qiongfang Li; Simin Qu; Xiuqin Fang; Ragahavan Srinivasan. 2013. "Application of a SWAT Model for Hydrological Modeling in the Xixian Watershed, China." Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 18, no. 11: 1522-1529.
Determination of infiltration mechanism is crucial for the calculation of infiltration flux in the soil which would influence the water balance computation. Two infiltration experiments with different isotopic compositions of rainfall were conducted to analyze the infiltration type by measuring isotopic concentrations (deuterium and oxygen 18) of collected outflow water samples. Models with three transfer functions were used to simulate the isotopic variation of outflows in a soil column. The model performance was evaluated with the comparison of computed and observed isotopic values of outflow. Breakthrough curve based on the isotopic composition of rainfall, initial soil water and outflow, and mean residence time estimated on the best fitting transfer function model were applied to identify the infiltration type in the soil. The results show that infiltration type determination using the comparison between estimated and observed mean residence time and breakthrough curve are similar. Furthermore, we found that soil structure and isotope measurement error affected the determination of mean residence time. Results from this study may provide a framework for describing the infiltration processes in the soil column.
Qu Simin; Wang Tao; Bao Weimin; Shi Peng; Jiang Peng; Zhou Minmin; Yu Zhongbo. Evaluating Infiltration Mechanisms Using Breakthrough Curve and Mean Residence Time. Water Resources Management 2013, 27, 4579 -4590.
AMA StyleQu Simin, Wang Tao, Bao Weimin, Shi Peng, Jiang Peng, Zhou Minmin, Yu Zhongbo. Evaluating Infiltration Mechanisms Using Breakthrough Curve and Mean Residence Time. Water Resources Management. 2013; 27 (13):4579-4590.
Chicago/Turabian StyleQu Simin; Wang Tao; Bao Weimin; Shi Peng; Jiang Peng; Zhou Minmin; Yu Zhongbo. 2013. "Evaluating Infiltration Mechanisms Using Breakthrough Curve and Mean Residence Time." Water Resources Management 27, no. 13: 4579-4590.
We analyzed the variation trends in precipitation according to the observed data in the Shaying River catchment, upstream of the Huai River from 1951 to 2010, using the linear regression method and Mann-Kendall test. Further study was made by introducingR/Sanalysis, and the corresponding Hurst Exponent was estimated to predict the future trends of rainfall. The results suggested that the changing trends in precipitation for different time series in the whole catchment were relatively complex and not obvious. The annual precipitation showed a slightly increasing trend over the past 60 years, and in the future it would be antipersistent. For the 38 rainfall stations, the trends in spring and autumn precipitation time series were mostly negative; on the contrary, the trends in summer and winter were mostly positive. The results also indicated that the annual precipitation series showed positive trends in the northern region and negative trends in the southern region. Moreover, the relationships ofH-ZandH-β of the 38 stations were analyzed. The results indicated that the greater the absolute values ofZthe stronger the persistent nature. Meanwhile, for most of theHvalues were close to 0.5, the randomness of the future trends could not be ignored.
Peng Shi; Xinxin Ma; Xi Chen; Simin Qu; Zhicai Zhang. Analysis of Variation Trends in Precipitation in an Upstream Catchment of Huai River. Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2013, 2013, 1 -11.
AMA StylePeng Shi, Xinxin Ma, Xi Chen, Simin Qu, Zhicai Zhang. Analysis of Variation Trends in Precipitation in an Upstream Catchment of Huai River. Mathematical Problems in Engineering. 2013; 2013 ():1-11.
Chicago/Turabian StylePeng Shi; Xinxin Ma; Xi Chen; Simin Qu; Zhicai Zhang. 2013. "Analysis of Variation Trends in Precipitation in an Upstream Catchment of Huai River." Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2013, no. : 1-11.
Land use/land cover and climate change can significantly alter water cycle at local and regional scales. Xixian Watershed, an important agricultural area in the upper reach of the Huaihe River, has undergone a dramatic change of cultivation style, and consequently substantial land use change, during the past three decades. A marked increase in temperature was also observed. A significant monotonic increasing trend of annual temperature was observed, while annual rainfall did not change significantly. To better support decision making and policy analysis relevant to land management under climate change, it is important to separate and quantify the effect of each factor on water availability. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a physically based distributed hydrologic model, to assess the impact of Land use and climate changes separately. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated for monthly streamflow. Nash-Sutcliff efficiency (NSE), percentage bias (PBIAS), and coefficient of determination (R 2) were 0.90, 6.3 %, and 0.91 for calibration period and 0.91, 6.9 %, and 0.911 for validation period, respectively. To assess the separate effect of land use and climate change, we simulated streamflow under four scenarios with different combinations of two-period climate data and land use maps. The joint effect of land use and climate change increased surface flow, evapotranspiration, and streamflow. Climate variability increased the surface water and stream-flow and decreased actual evapotranspiration; and land use change played a counteractive role. Climate variability played a dominant role in this watershed. The differentiated impacts of land-use/climate variabilities on hydrological processes revealed that the unapparent change in stream-flow is implicitly because the effects of climate variability on hydrological processes were offset by the effects of land use change.
Peng Shi; Xinxin Ma; Yuanbing Hou; Qiongfang Li; Zhicai Zhang; Simin Qu; Chao Chen; Tao Cai; Xiuqin Fang. Effects of Land-Use and Climate Change on Hydrological Processes in the Upstream of Huai River, China. Water Resources Management 2012, 27, 1263 -1278.
AMA StylePeng Shi, Xinxin Ma, Yuanbing Hou, Qiongfang Li, Zhicai Zhang, Simin Qu, Chao Chen, Tao Cai, Xiuqin Fang. Effects of Land-Use and Climate Change on Hydrological Processes in the Upstream of Huai River, China. Water Resources Management. 2012; 27 (5):1263-1278.
Chicago/Turabian StylePeng Shi; Xinxin Ma; Yuanbing Hou; Qiongfang Li; Zhicai Zhang; Simin Qu; Chao Chen; Tao Cai; Xiuqin Fang. 2012. "Effects of Land-Use and Climate Change on Hydrological Processes in the Upstream of Huai River, China." Water Resources Management 27, no. 5: 1263-1278.
Regional frequency analysis based on L moments has been used to analyze low flow in the karst area of southwest China. The 7-day low flow was regarded as the statistical quantity. Data from 12 stream flow gauging sites of the Wujiang water system in Guizhou Province are screened using the discordancy measure, and homogeneity of the region is then tested employing the L-moments-based heterogeneity measure. For computing heterogeneity measure H , 500 simulations are performed using the kappa distribution. Based on this test, it is observed that these 12 gauging sites constitute a homogeneous region. Based on the L-moments ratio diagram, |ZDIST| and t4 statistic criteria, generalized logistic (GLO) distribution is identified as the robust distribution for the study area. Regional low flow frequency relationships are developed for estimation of low flow of various return periods for 12 gauged catchments using the GLO distribution and index flood method. Examination of the observed and computed low flow shows a good agreement in general, and the results justify practical application.
Peng Shi; Xi Chen; Si-Min Qu; Zhi-Cai Zhang; Jian-Liang Ma. Regional Frequency Analysis of Low Flow Based on L Moments: Case Study in Karst Area, Southwest China. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 2010, 15, 370 -377.
AMA StylePeng Shi, Xi Chen, Si-Min Qu, Zhi-Cai Zhang, Jian-Liang Ma. Regional Frequency Analysis of Low Flow Based on L Moments: Case Study in Karst Area, Southwest China. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering. 2010; 15 (5):370-377.
Chicago/Turabian StylePeng Shi; Xi Chen; Si-Min Qu; Zhi-Cai Zhang; Jian-Liang Ma. 2010. "Regional Frequency Analysis of Low Flow Based on L Moments: Case Study in Karst Area, Southwest China." Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 15, no. 5: 370-377.