Watersheds are critical ecosystems that provide essential services, but they face increasing threats from deforestation, land use changes, and climate variability. The Mata Allo Sub-Watershed, which is characterized by steep topography and high rainfall, is particularly vulnerable to erosion, landslides, and habitat loss, necessitating robust conservation strategies. This study used principal component analysis (PCA) to assess ecological sensitivity, focusing on slope, rainfall, vegetation density, and land cover. The PCA results identified land cover as the most influential positive factor in F1 (loading value: 0.588), increasing sensitivity due to human-induced land use changes, while rainfall contributed most negatively (−0.638) by potentially mitigating extreme ecological risks. These contrasting roles underscore the complexity of interactions shaping watershed sensitivity. Slope strongly influenced F2 (−0.795), explaining 26.48% of the variance and highlighting the critical role of steep slopes in exacerbating erosion risks. Vegetation density in F3 (−0.679) and rainfall in F4 (−0.724) played significant roles in stabilizing soil and mitigating ecological risks, emphasizing their importance in reducing watershed sensitivity. The “Extremely Sensitive” class covers 48.79% of the watershed, primarily in areas with steep slopes and sparse vegetation, while “High Sensitivity” areas occupy 34.93%. Projections for 2032 suggest a reduction in “Extremely Sensitive” zones to 41.00%, reflecting improvements from targeted management interventions. These findings provide a foundation for promoting sustainable watershed management, enhancing climate resilience, and supporting biodiversity conservation efforts in vulnerable regions.

Social forestry is a government strategy aimed at improving community welfare while promoting forest conservation, making it essential to assess its effectiveness in maintaining land cover and carbon absorption capacity. This study evaluates land cover changes and carbon sequestration in the context of social forestry in North Luwu and East Luwu Regencies, South Sulawesi Province, Indonesia. These regions contain the largest forest areas in the province, making them crucial for addressing deforestation, forest degradation, and climate change mitigation. Geospatial and modeling analysis were employed to assess land cover dynamics and estimate carbon sequestration in social forestry permit areas. The results indicate an increase in forest area of approximately 3000 hectares, contributing to potential carbon sequestration of around three million tons of carbon dioxide over five years, particularly in the Angkona Forest Management Unit. However, other forest management units, such as Rongkong, Baliase, and Kalaena, experienced a decline in forest area due to agricultural expansion, leading to increased carbon emissions. These findings provide a scientific basis for policy recommendations to support sustainable forest management and climate change mitigation efforts in Indonesia. Cite this article as: Rijal, S., Chairil, A., Mukrimin., Samsuri., Nursaputra, M., Syamsul, K. A., Dwiputra, W. S., Pambudi, A. I., A., Pratama, A., & Elistyawati, A., Putri, A. L. A. (2026). Assessing social forestry in Indonesia: A spatio-temporal analysis of land cover change and carbon sequestration in South Sulawesi. Forestist, 76, 0007, doi: 10.5152/forestist.2026.25007.

Social forestry is a sustainable forest management system in Indonesia that is implemented in forest areas managed by the community to improve their welfare and maintain environmental balance. In Indonesia, especially South Sulawesi Province, there is a unit of the Bialo Forest Management Unit, which is the first Forest Management Unit to have a special license for Social Forestry licenses for Village Forest Schemes, and Customary Forests, and to date there have been 26 total Social Forestry licenses. The fundamental thing related to the success of social forestry management is the existence of sustainable forest conditions in the area. The research method was conducted by interpreting the land cover at each location of the social forestry approval permit in 2000, the year of the Social Forestry License, and in 2023, using Landsat 7 imagery and Landsat 8 imagery. The results of this study found that from 2000 to the year of the Social Forestry License, the land cover that experienced the greatest change was an increase in mixed dryland agriculture by 7% and low-density forest by 5%, followed by a decrease in the area of high-density forest by 5%. When social forestry licenses are granted until 2023, there was an increase in mixed dryland agriculture by 3.5% and high-density forest by 2%. Changes in forest area in the Village Forest and Indigenous Forest schemes are better applied in Bialo Forest Management Unit than the Community Forest scheme in maintaining sustainable forests. Several factors influence land change in each social forestry license location, namely because the level of community dependence on cultivated land is quite high to meet economic needs and they consider the land they have been cultivating so far belongs to their ancestors who have been cultivated for generations.

Complex and dynamic land changes are characterized by the conversion of unnecessary obligations (deforestation). Deforestation causes changes in land cover by f Complex and dynamic land changes are characterized by the conversion of unnecessary obligations (deforestation). Deforestation causes changes in land cover by f