To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0·685 (95% CI 0·629-0·741) to 0·833 (0·783-0·882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. World Health Organization, British Heart Foundation (BHF), BHF Cambridge Centre for Research Excellence, UK Medical Research Council, and National Institute for Health Research.

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries ^1,2 . However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world ³ and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health ^4,5 . However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol—which is a marker of cardiovascular risk—changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million–4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.

Aims Whether pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) for paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF) using contact force (CF)-guided radiofrequency (RF) or second-generation cryoballoon (CB) present similar efficacy and safety remains uncertain. Methods and results We performed a multicentre study comparing procedural safety and arrhythmia recurrence after standardized PVI catheter ablation for PAF using CF-guided RF ablation (Thermocool® SmartTouch™, Biosense Webster; or Tacticath™, St Jude Medical) (CF group) with second-generation CB ablation (Arctic Front Advance™, Medtronic) (CB group). Overall, 376 patients (mean age 59.8 ± 10.4 years, 280 males) were enrolled in 4 centres: 198 in CF group and 178 in CB group. Procedure was shorter for CB group than for CF group (109.6 ± 40 vs. 122.5 ± 40.7 min, P = 0.003), but fluoroscopy duration and X-ray exposure were not statistically different ( P = 0.1 and P = 0.22, respectively). Overall complication rate was similar in both groups: 14 (7.1%) in the CF group vs. 13 (7.3%) in the CB group ( P = 0.93). However, transient right phrenic nerve palsy occurred only in CB group (10 patients, 5.6%; P = 0.001 vs. CF group) and severe non-lethal complications (embolic event, tamponade, or oesophageal injury) occurred only in CF group (5 patients, 2.5%; P = 0.03 vs. CB group). No periprocedural death occurred in either group. Single-procedure freedom from any atrial arrhythmias at 18 months post-ablation was comparable in CF group and CB group (76 vs. 73.3%, respectively, log rank P = 0.63). Conclusion Pulmonary vein isolation using CF-guided RF and second-generation CB leads to comparable single-procedure arrhythmia-free survival at up to 18 months with similar overall complication rate.

Objective: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) and is associated with a high risk of stroke. The efficacy and safety of catheter ablation in this setting is poorly characterised. We aimed to systematically review the existing literature and to perform a meta-analysis to determine the efficacy and safety of catheter ablation of AF in patients with HCM. Methods: Random-effects meta-analysis of studies comparing HCM versus non-HCM controls. The outcomes of freedom from AF/atrial tachycardia, and acute procedure-related complications were assessed. Studies were searched on MEDLINE, EMBASE, COCHRANE and clinicaltrials.gov. Results: Fourteen studies were considered eligible for the systematic review, of which five were included in the meta-analysis. Freedom from AF/atrial tachycardia relapse was higher in patients without HCM (after a single procedure: 38.7% HCM vs 49.8% controls, OR=2.25, 95% CI 1.09 to 4.64, p=0.03; after ≥1 procedure: 51.8% HCM vs 71.2% controls, OR=2.62, 95% CI 1.52 to 4.51, p=0.0006; I²=33% and 26%, respectively). Risk of procedure-related adverse events was low. Repeat procedures (mean difference=0.16, 95% CI 0.0 to 0.32, p=0.05, I²=53%) and antiarrhythmic drugs (OR=4.70, 95% CI 2.31 to 9.55, p<0.0001, I²=0%) are more frequently needed in patients with HCM to prevent arrhythmia relapse. Sensitivity analyses suggested that the outcome in patients with HCM with less dilated atria and paroxysmal AF may be more comparable to the general population. Conclusions: The observed complication rate of catheter ablation of AF in patients with HCM was low. Even though the risk of relapse is twofold higher, catheter ablation can be effective in patients with HCM and AF, particularly in patients with paroxysmal AF and smaller atria.

Aims In the setting of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF), there are no available data comparing the mid-term outcome of patients undergoing pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) catheter ablation using contact-force (CF)-guided radiofrequency (RF) vs. second-generation balloon cryotherapy. Methods and results Prospective single-centre evaluation, carried out from March 2011 to February 2013, comparing CF radiofrequency (Thermocool® SmartTouch™, Biosense Webster, Inc.) (CF group) with cryoballoon ablation (Arctic Front Advance™ 28 mm cryoballoon, Medtronic, Inc.) (CB group), in regards to procedural safety and efficacy, as well as recurrence at 12 months. Overall, 150 consecutive patients were enrolled (75 in each group). The characteristics of patients of both the groups were similar (61.2 ± 9.9 years, women 25.3%, mean AF duration 4.1 ± 4.0 years, mean CHA2DS2-VASc score 1.4 ± 1.3, mean HAS-BLED 1.4 ± 0.6). Duration of the procedure was significantly lower in the CF group (110.7 ± 32.5 vs. 134.5 ± 48.3 min, P = 0.001), with a lower duration of fluoroscopy (21.5 ± 8.5 vs. 25.3 ± 9.9 min, P = 0.017) and X-ray exposure (4748 ± 2411 cGy cm² vs. 7734 ± 5361 cGy cm², P = 0.001). In contrast, no significant difference was found regarding significant procedural complication (2.7 vs. 1.3% in CF and CB groups, respectively; P = 0.56), and PVI was eventually achieved in all cases. At 12 months, AF recurrence occurred in 11 patients (14.7%) in the CB group and in 9 patients (12.0%) in the CF group (HR = 1.20 95% CI 0.50–2.90; log rank P = 0.682). Conclusions Our preliminary findings suggest that CF-guided radiofrequency and cryotherapy present very similar performances in the setting of paroxysmal AF catheter ablation.