Objective: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a pandemic respiratory illness spreading from person-to-person caused by a novel coronavirus and poses a serious public health risk. The goal of this study was to apply a modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) compartmental mathematical model for prediction of COVID-19 epidemic dynamics incorporating pathogen in the environment and interventions. The next generation matrix approach was used to determine the basic reproduction number $$R_0$$R 0 . The model equations are solved numerically using fourth and fifth order Runge–Kutta methods. Results: We found an $$R_0$$R 0 of 2.03, implying that the pandemic will persist in the human population in the absence of strong control measures. Results after simulating various scenarios indicate that disregarding social distancing and hygiene measures can have devastating effects on the human population. The model shows that quarantine of contacts and isolation of cases can help halt the spread on novel coronavirus.

Zero-inflated models for count data are becoming quite popular nowadays and are found in many application areas, such as medicine, economics, biology, sociology and so on. However, in practice these counts are often prone to measurement error which in this case boils down to misclassification. Methods to deal with misclassification of counts have been suggested recently, but only for the binomial model and the Poisson model. Here we look at a more complex model, that is, the zero-inflated negative binomial, and illustrate how correction for misclassification can be achieved. Our approach is illustrated on the dmft-index which is a popular measure for caries experience in caries research. An extra problem was the fact that several dental examiners were involved in scoring caries experience. Using our example, we illustrate how a non-differential misclassification process for each examiner can lead to differential misclassification overall.

A peer-reviewed open access journal published by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences