This study investigates the position of Côte d’Ivoire’s cocoa industry within the global production chain and identifies key influencing factors from 1960 to 2024. Using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the research evaluates the effects of economic and climate variables—cocoa bean production, global cocoa prices, GDP contributions, domestic cocoa grindings, rainfall, and temperature—on cocoa exports. The findings reveal that a 1% increase in global cocoa prices decreases exports by 0.45%, indicating significant price sensitivity. Cocoa bean production accounts for 42.39% of export variance over the long term, while GDP contributions (0.88%) and domestic cocoa grindings (0.34%) enhance competitiveness and value addition. Rainfall negatively impacts productivity, underscoring vulnerabilities to climate variability, whereas temperature has a short-term positive effect on export performance (0.12%). Short-term dynamics demonstrate rapid adjustments toward equilibrium, with adjustment speeds of 41.23% for Côte d’Ivoire and 37.21% for Ghana. The study highlights Côte d’Ivoire’s dependence on raw cocoa exports and its susceptibility to price volatility and climate risks. By comparing Côte d’Ivoire with Ghana, the analysis underscores the advantages of robust domestic processing policies. To ensure long-term sustainability, the study recommends expanding domestic cocoa processing, adopting agroforestry practices to mitigate climate risks, and investing in infrastructure to boost competitiveness and resilience.

This research explores the dynamics of Côte d’Ivoire’s cocoa industry within the global production chain from 1960 to 2024. Employing a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), it examines the impact of key economic and environmental factors, including gross cocoa production, cocoa bean prices, GDP, domestic cocoa grindings, rainfall, and temperature, on cocoa bean exports. By unraveling short- and long-term relationships, the study highlights how economic variables propel exports while climatic factors exacerbate production vulnerabilities. Incorporating rigorous econometric methods and extending a comparative analysis with Ghana enriches the understanding of regional dynamics, emphasizing the interplay between macroeconomic stability and agricultural sustainability. The findings propose actionable strategies to enhance global competitiveness, such as promoting value addition through domestic cocoa grindings and adopting climate-resilient farming practices. This study uniquely integrates climatic and economic variables using advanced econometric techniques, offering novel insights into the dynamics of Côte d’Ivoire’s cocoa industry and its global competitiveness.

This study investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility (ERV) on cocoa exports in Côte d’Ivoire from 1960 to 2024. Using an extended gravity model framework, the analysis incorporates key variables such as the real exchange rate (RER), total factor productivity (TFP), economic mass, and structural trade frictions. ERV is measured employing the Peree and Steinherr, capturing long-run deviations and structural misalignments. The model includes major importing countries, with Ghana examined as a comparative case to assess the influence of currency regimes and productivity structures on export performance. Fixed effects models and Newey–West robust standard errors are employed to ensure statistical reliability. Interaction terms are incorporated to explore industry-level heterogeneity. Results indicate that ERV positively influences cocoa exports under high productivity conditions, though the effect is conditional and nonlinear. Improvements in RER significantly enhance trade competitiveness. Quantile regression confirms that ERV exerts a stronger impact on top-performing exporters, suggesting that firm-level characteristics such as scale, adaptability, and risk management capacity matter. These findings underscore the importance of productivity, macroeconomic stability, and supportive trade policy. The study contributes to the literature on macroeconomic shocks in agricultural trade and offers strategies to enhance resilience and international competitiveness in Côte d’Ivoire’s cocoa sector.

This study investigates the dynamics and sustainability challenges of Côte d’Ivoire’s cocoa sector from 1960 to 2024, focusing on the impacts of global market volatility, climate change, and supply shortfalls. Using advanced econometric methods, including the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, Zivot-Andrews structural break analysis, impulse response functions, and variance decomposition, the research analyzes how global cocoa prices, domestic grinding, exports, inflation, rainfall, and temperature influence cocoa production. Structural breaks in 1994 and 2014 correspond to major policy reforms and external market shifts, indicating periods of heightened vulnerability. The results demonstrate that inflation and climatic variability significantly constrain production stability, while domestic processing and strong export performance mitigate the adverse effects of price shocks. By integrating economic and environmental variables into a long-term empirical framework, this study contributes to the literature on agricultural sustainability and market resilience. It offers targeted policy recommendations, including the promotion of value addition through local processing, stabilization of macroeconomic conditions, investment in climate-resilient agricultural systems, and enhanced international cooperation to ensure equitable pricing mechanisms. The results underscore the necessity of coordinated, knowledge-based interventions that align economic incentives with ecological realities to promote sustainable sectoral development. Future research should explore subnational socio-economic impacts and context-specific adaptation strategies to support a more resilient and inclusive cocoa sector under global uncertainty.

The study investigates hidden costs of green trade, focusing on environmental regulation, market access, and unequal value capture in West African cocoa supply chains. Environmental due diligence increases the commercial importance of verified origin information, reshaping supplier relationships and the distribution of compliance burdens. Focusing on Côte d’Ivoire, with Ghana and five additional West African producers providing regional context, the analysis combines 2016–2024 cocoa export destinations with 2024 trader-level procurement disclosures. An exposure–visibility decomposition measures European market dependence and public sourcing traceability, while sharp allocation bounds and an aggregate adding-up constraint examine indirect procurement among six major trading groups. In 2024, 66.16% of Ivorian cocoa exports were directed to the European Union, and EU-bound indirect sourcing together with undisclosed-origin trade represented 31.70% of national exports. Despite incomplete company-level cross-tabulations, eight pairwise comparisons identify guaranteed differences in EU-bound indirect procurement volumes. A disclosure-priority measure identifies where additional transaction information could reduce uncertainty effectively. The study advances the literature by connecting identifiable trade-network structures to the economic governance of traceability and by specifying how disclosure requirements can address consequential information gaps. A complementary framework examines producer adaptation costs, buyer screening, record portability, and bargaining opportunities as channels shaping inclusive market participation and value capture. Policy implications concern targeted data disclosure, interoperable verification systems, and safeguards for supplier mobility. The trade-based evidence identifies sourcing exposure and asymmetries in public disclosure; producer-level distributional outcomes and environmental effects require linked farm, buyer, and ecological records. Across countries, institutional differences warrant cautious interpretation of regional comparisons.