Cyber Supply Chain (CSC) system is complex which involves different sub-systems performing various tasks. Security in supply chain is challenging due to the inherent vulnerabilities and threats from any part of the system which can be exploited at any point within the supply chain. This can cause a severe disruption on the overall business continuity. Therefore, it is paramount important to understand and predicate the threats so that organization can undertake necessary control measures for the supply chain security. Cyber Threat Intelligence (CTI) provides an intelligence analysis to discover unknown to known threats using various properties including threat actor skill and motivation, Tactics, Techniques, and Procedure (TT and P), and Indicator of Compromise (IoC). This paper aims to analyse and predicate threats to improve cyber supply chain security. We have applied Cyber Threat Intelligence (CTI) with Machine Learning (ML) techniques to analyse and predict the threats based on the CTI properties. That allows to identify the inherent CSC vulnerabilities so that appropriate control actions can be undertaken for the overall cybersecurity improvement. To demonstrate the applicability of our approach, CTI data is gathered and a number of ML algorithms, i.e., Logistic Regression (LG), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), and Decision Tree (DT), are used to develop predictive analytics using the Microsoft Malware Prediction dataset. The experiment considers attack and TTP as input parameters and vulnerabilities and Indicators of compromise (IoC) as output parameters. The results relating to the prediction reveal that Spyware/Ransomware and spear phishing are the most predictable threats in CSC. We have also recommended relevant controls to tackle these threats. We advocate using CTI data for the ML predicate model for the overall CSC cyber security improvement.

Purpose: Various organizational landscapes have evolved to improve their business processes, increase production speed and reduce the cost of distribution and have integrated their Internet with small and medium scale enterprises (SMEs) and third-party vendors to improve business growth and increase global market share, including changing organizational requirements and business process collaborations. Benefits include a reduction in the cost of production, online services, online payments, product distribution channels and delivery in a supply chain environment. However, the integration has led to an exponential increase in cybercrimes, with adversaries using various attack methods to penetrate and exploit the organizational network. Thus, identifying the attack vectors in the event of cyberattacks is very important in mitigating cybercrimes effectively and has become inevitable. However, the invincibility nature of cybercrimes makes it challenging to detect and predict the threat probabilities and the cascading impact in an evolving organization landscape leading to malware, ransomware, data theft and denial of service attacks, among others. The paper explores the cybercrime threat landscape, considers the impact of the attacks and identifies mitigating circumstances to improve security controls in an evolving organizational landscape.Design/methodology/approach: The approach follows two main cybercrime framework design principles that focus on existing attack detection phases and proposes a cybercrime mitigation framework (CCMF) that uses detect, assess, analyze, evaluate and respond phases and subphases to reduce the attack surface. The methods and implementation processes were derived by identifying an organizational goal, attack vectors, threat landscape, identification of attacks and models and validation of framework standards to improve security. The novelty contribution of this paper is threefold: first, the authors explore the existing threat landscapes, various cybercrimes, models and the methods that adversaries are deploying on organizations. Second, the authors propose a threat model required for mitigating the risk factors. Finally, the authors recommend control mechanisms in line with security standards to improve security.Findings: The results show that cybercrimes can be mitigated using a CCMF to detect, assess, analyze, evaluate and respond to cybercrimes to improve security in an evolving organizational threat landscape.Research limitations/implications: The paper does not consider the organizational size between large organizations and SMEs. The challenges facing the evolving organizational threat landscape include vulnerabilities brought about by the integrations of various network nodes. Factor influencing these vulnerabilities includes inadequate threat intelligence gathering, a lack of third-party auditing and inadequate control mechanisms leading to various manipulations, exploitations, exfiltration and obfuscations.Practical implications: Attack methods are applied to a case study for the implementation to evaluate the model based on the design principles. Inadequate cyber threat intelligence (CTI) gathering, inadequate attack modeling and security misconfigurations are some of the key factors leading to practical implications in mitigating cybercrimes.Social implications: There are no social implications; however, cybercrimes have severe consequences for organizations and third-party vendors that integrate their network systems, leading to legal and reputational damage.Originality/value: The paper’s originality considers mitigating cybercrimes in an evolving organization landscape that requires strategic, tactical and operational management imperative using the proposed framework phases, including detect, assess, analyze, evaluate and respond phases and subphases to reduce the attack surface, which is currently inadequate.

Purpose: Cyber resilience in cyber supply chain (CSC) systems security has become inevitable as attacks, risks and vulnerabilities increase in real-time critical infrastructure systems with little time for system failures. Cyber resilience approaches ensure the ability of a supply chain system to prepare, absorb, recover and adapt to adverse effects in the complex CPS environment. However, threats within the CSC context can pose a severe disruption to the overall business continuity. The paper aims to use machine learning (ML) techniques to predict threats on cyber supply chain systems, improve cyber resilience that focuses on critical assets and reduce the attack surface.Design/methodology/approach: The approach follows two main cyber resilience design principles that focus on common critical assets and reduce the attack surface for this purpose. ML techniques are applied to various classification algorithms to learn a dataset for performance accuracies and threats predictions based on the CSC resilience design principles. The critical assets include Cyber Digital, Cyber Physical and physical elements. We consider Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Naïve Bayes and Random Forest classification algorithms in a Majority Voting to predicate the results. Finally, we mapped the threats with known attacks for inferences to improve resilience on the critical assets.Findings: The paper contributes to CSC system resilience based on the understanding and prediction of the threats. The result shows a 70% performance accuracy for the threat prediction with cyber resilience design principles that focus on critical assets and controls and reduce the threat.Research limitations/implications: Therefore, there is a need to understand and predicate the threat so that appropriate control actions can ensure system resilience. However, due to the invincibility and dynamic nature of cyber attacks, there are limited controls and attributions. This poses serious implications for cyber supply chain systems and its cascading impacts.Practical implications: ML techniques are used on a dataset to analyse and predict the threats based on the CSC resilience design principles.Social implications: There are no social implications rather it has serious implications for organizations and third-party vendors.Originality/value: The originality of the paper lies in the fact that cyber resilience design principles that focus on common critical assets are used including Cyber Digital, Cyber Physical and physical elements to determine the attack surface. ML techniques are applied to various classification algorithms to learn a dataset for performance accuracies and threats predictions based on the CSC resilience design principles to reduce the attack surface for this purpose.

Application of cryptography and how various encryption algorithms methods are used to encrypt and decrypt data that traverse the network is relevant in securing information flows. Implementing cryptography in a secure network environment requires the application of secret keys, public keys, and hash functions to ensure data confidentiality, integrity, authentication, and non-repudiation. However, providing secure communications to prevent interception, interruption, modification, and fabrication on network systems has been challenging. Cyberattacks are deploying various methods and techniques to break into network systems to exploit digital signatures, VPNs, and others. Thus, it has become imperative to consider applying techniques to provide secure and trustworthy communication and computing using cryptography methods. The paper explores applied cryptography concepts in information and network systems security to prevent cyberattacks and improve secure communications. The contribution of the paper is threefold: First, we consider the various cyberattacks on the different cryptography algorithms in symmetric, asymmetric, and hashing functions. Secondly, we apply the various RSA methods on a network system environment to determine how the cyberattack could intercept, interrupt, modify, and fabricate information. Finally, we discuss the secure implementations methods and recommendations to improve security controls. Our results show that we could apply cryptography methods to identify vulnerabilities in the RSA algorithm in secure computing and communications networks.

Background: Child Sexual Exploitation and Abuse is a longstanding global issue, increasingly amplified by digital technologies, mobile devices, and internet access. This shift has intensified Child Online Sexual Exploitation and Abuse (COSEA). WeProtect 2020, a Global Alliance Intelligence brief report, indicated a 200% rise in online abuse forums. Existing studies focus on child protection, grooming, and survey-based analyses and draw inferences regarding grooming tactics and thematic analysis. Social issues such as underreporting, limited threat intelligence sharing, and low cyber awareness persist, leading to vulnerabilities and various exploitations. Further, a lack of social engagement and support persists, posing serious challenges for victims and law enforcement. Multiple studies have used the term Online Child Sexual Exploitation and Abuse (OCSEA) that focus on a technology-centric approach. However, the paper considers Child Online Sexual Exploitation and Abuse (COSEA) child-centric approach as we explore challenges of a child accessing the internet and engaging in online activities. Methods: This study analyses COSEA using the MITRE tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTP) framework to examine perpetrator behavior, motives, and potential attribution, considering the evolving threat landscape. Results: TTP-based analysis enables the identification of adversary intent, methods, and opportunities. The study contributions are threefold: (1) we explore COSEA and its manifestations; (2) we apply the MITRE TTP framework with subjective expert judgment to analyze perpetrator behavior and the victim; for instance, what leads victims to become complicit in wrong acts; and (3) propose mitigation strategies and stakeholder roles. Conclusion: By integrating technical, social, and behavioral perspectives, it highlights the roles of economic, societal, and deterrence factors and recommends policy, education, and collaborative threat-intelligence sharing to enhance child online safety.