Background: The incidence and mortality of anal squamous cell carcinoma (ASCC) are rising, with greater than 80% of cases linked to human papillomavirus (HPV), primarily HPV16. Post-treatment surveillance can be challenging due to the limitations of anoscopy, digital anal rectal exam (DARE), and imaging. Plasma tumor tissue modified viral (TTMV)-HPV DNA has shown strong sensitivity, specificity, and predictive value in detecting the recurrence of HPV-driven oropharyngeal cancer. Here, we investigate the ability of TTMV-HPV DNA for the early recurrence detection of ASCC. Methods: This retrospective clinical case series included 117 patients with HPV-driven ASCC across 7 U.S. centers, monitored with TTMV-HPV DNA during routine clinical care between March 2020 and June 2024. Physician-reported clinical data and biomarker testing data were combined to create a comprehensive, longitudinal dataset for evaluating test performance metrics. Results: Patients had a median age of 63 years and median post-diagnosis follow-up of 19 months. HPV status was primarily confirmed by TTMV-HPV DNA (52%) or p16 immunohistochemistry (39%). Of those tested for TTMV-HPV DNA pretreatment, 85% had a positive result. TTMV-HPV DNA clearance during or within three months post-treatment was associated with significantly better recurrence-free survival. The per-patient surveillance sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were 82.8%, 98.4%, 96.0%, and 92.5%. Of 24 patients with a documented recurrence and a positive TTMV-HPV DNA test, the test was the first evidence of recurrence in 14 patients (58.3%), with a median lead time of 59 days (range: 10–536). TTMV-HPV DNA accurately resolved 94.3% of cases with indeterminate clinical findings. Conclusions: TTMV-HPV DNA testing provides a sensitive and specific approach for detecting patients with recurrent ASCC and resolving the status of patients with indeterminate clinical findings.

Background/Objectives: Surveillance for anal squamous cell carcinoma (ASCC) recurrence relies on clinical examination and imaging. Post-treatment edema, fibrosis, and inflammation can result in clinically indeterminate findings (CIFs) that delay diagnosis and increase patient and system burden. Circulating tumor tissue-modified viral (TTMV)-HPV DNA offers a biologically specific, noninvasive biomarker that may clarify equivocal assessments. Methods: In this multi-center retrospective study, 233 patients with HPV-associated ASCC were evaluated, including 185 with ≥1 post-treatment TTMV-HPV DNA test. CIFs were defined as exams or imaging results not definitively positive or negative for disease, and were paired with subsequent TTMV-HPV DNA tests. Concordance was defined by prespecified follow-up windows comparing TTMV-HPV DNA results with subsequent clinical outcomes. Results: Ninety patients (39%) experienced 214 CIFs, arising from exams (46%, 98) or imaging (54%, 116). Indeterminate rates by assessment were 7% for exams, 17% for imaging, and 1.3% for TTMV-HPV DNA testing. Overall, 52 CIF/TTMV-HPV DNA pairs were eligible for analysis, and TTMV-HPV DNA resolved disease status accurately for 48/52 (92%, 95% CI: 81.5–97.9). Negative tests predicted cancer-free status for 37/41 CIFs (90%), while 100% of positive tests (11/11) were concordant with clinically confirmed recurrence. In 73% of positive cases (8/11), TTMV-HPV DNA was the first indication of recurrence (median lead-time 29 days; IQR 25–147). Conclusions: TTMV-HPV DNA testing reliably clarifies clinically indeterminate findings during ASCC surveillance, demonstrating high accuracy (92%) and earlier detection of recurrence. These data support integration into post-treatment management to reduce diagnostic uncertainty and guide timely care.