Carbon emissions (CE) from expanding construction land (CL), a vital territory for human production and habitation, have contributed to climate change worldwide. The Yellow River Basin (YRB), an essential economic region and energy supply base in China, is experiencing rapid urbanization, and the contradiction between economic development and ecological protection is increasingly acute. Consequently, a thorough examination of the spatial and temporal change features of carbon emissions from construction land (CECL) and its decoupling from economic growth (EG) is crucial for the maintaining development of the region. This study adopts the IPCC carbon emission coefficient approach for measuring the CECL in the YRB from 2010 to 2021. The temporal and spatial variation features of CECL in the YRB were revealed using ArcGIS software and the standard deviation ellipse (SDE) model. The decoupling effect between CECL and EG was analyzed using the Tapio decoupling model and innovatively combined with the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method to explore the influence of five main drivers on the decoupling effect. This study found that: (1) The CECL rose from 2.463 billion tons in 2010 to 3.329 billion tons in 2021. The spatial layout of CECL is “high in the east and low in the west”. (2) The SDE of CECL is distributed in the direction of “northeast to southwest”, and the gravity center’s moving path is “northwest to northeast to northwest”; (3) weak decoupling (WD) is the main decoupling state between CECL and EG; (4) the economic output effect and the construction land (CL) scale effect are the two main factors inhibiting the decoupling of CECL, while the energy intensity effect, the population density effect, and the energy structure effect are the main elements motivating the decoupling of CECL. This study provides specific references and bases for the YRB in China and other countries and regions with similar levels of development in promoting green and ecologically friendly initiatives and achieving low-carbon utilization of regional land and sustainable development.

In the context of China’s carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, clarifying whether the Yellow River Basin can achieve a decoupling of economic growth from carbon emissions and sustain regional development through deep decarbonization is critical to both ecological protection and high-quality development of the region. This study integrates the Tapio decoupling model, the geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model, and an author-developed LEAP-YRB v5 macro-sectoral hybrid model to examine 95 prefecture-level cities from 2010 to 2022 and to project energy consumption and carbon emissions for the nine YRB provincial-level regions from 2022 to 2060. The results show that: (1) the urban decoupling status fluctuated among expansive coupling, strong decoupling, and weak decoupling, with weak decoupling becoming dominant and increasing to 62 cities in 2022; (2) per capita GDP and urbanization tended to increase the decoupling index and therefore inhibited decoupling, whereas more intensive construction-land use promoted decoupling, and industrial structure upgrading and green patents showed context-dependent effects; and (3) the basin cannot peak its emissions under the business-as-usual scenario, while the policy-driven scenario peaks at approximately 3.357 billion tons of CO₂ around 2030. Under the carbon-neutrality-oriented scenario, net emissions decline substantially to 825 million tons by 2060, indicating deep decarbonization but not full carbon neutrality. Full neutrality would require additional carbon sinks, cross-regional clean-electricity integration, stronger power-sector decarbonization, or negative-emission technologies beyond the endogenous measures represented in the model.