Jason Senter

Dr. Jason Senter


Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

3Years (2024-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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12 December 2024 in Atmosphere
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
Sarah M. WeaverSarah M. Weaver
Sarah M. Weaver
CSChristopher A. Steward
Christopher A. Steward
JSJason Senter
Jason Senter
SBSarah S. Balkissoon
Sarah S. Balkissoon
Anthony LupoAnthony Lupo
Anthony Lupo
Tropical cyclone prediction is often described as chaotic and unpredictable on time scales that cross into stochastic regimes. Predictions are bounded by the depth of understanding and the limitations of the physical dynamics that govern them. Slight changes in global atmospheric and oceanic conditions may significantly alter tropical cyclone genesis regions and intensity. The purpose of this paper is to characterize the predictability of seasonal storm characteristics in the North Atlantic basin by utilizing the Largest Lyapunov Exponent and Takens’ Theorem, which is rarely used in weather or climatological analysis. This is conducted for a post-weather satellite era (1960–2022). Based on the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) time series in the North Atlantic basin, cyclone activity can be described as predictable at certain timescales. Insight and understanding into this coupled non-linear system through an analysis of time delay, embedded dimension, and Lyapunov exponent-reconstructed phase space have provided critical information for the system’s predictability.