This paper proposes a regression model using the Eigenvector Spatial Filtering (ESF) method to estimate ground PM2.5 concentrations. Covariates are derived from remotely sensed data including aerosol optical depth, normal differential vegetation index, surface temperature, air pressure, relative humidity, height of planetary boundary layer and digital elevation model. In addition, cultural variables such as factory densities and road densities are also used in the model. With the Yangtze River Delta region as the study area, we constructed ESF-based Regression (ESFR) models at different time scales, using data for the period between December 2015 and November 2016. We found that the ESFR models effectively filtered spatial autocorrelation in the OLS residuals and resulted in increases in the goodness-of-fit metrics as well as reductions in residual standard errors and cross-validation errors, compared to the classic OLS models. The annual ESFR model explained 70% of the variability in PM2.5 concentrations, 16.7% more than the non-spatial OLS model. With the ESFR models, we performed detail analyses on the spatial and temporal distributions of PM2.5 concentrations in the study area. The model predictions are lower than ground observations but match the general trend. The experiment shows that ESFR provides a promising approach to PM2.5 analysis and prediction.
Logistic regression methods have been widely used for landslide research. However, previous studies have seldom paid attention to the frequent occurrence of spatial autocorrelated residuals in regression models, which indicate a model misspecification problem and unreliable results. This study accounts for spatial autocorrelation by implementing eigenvector spatial filtering (ESF) into logistic regression for landslide susceptibility assessment. Based on a landslide inventory map and 11 landslide predisposing factors, we developed the eigenvector spatial filtering-based logistic regression (ESFLR) model, as well as a conventional logistic regression (LR) model and an autologistic regression (ALR) model for comparison. The three models were evaluated and compared in terms of their prediction capability and model fit. The ESFLR model performed better than the other two models. The overall predictive accuracy of the ESFLR model was 90.53%, followed by the ALR model (76.21%) and the LR model (74.76%), and the areas under the ROC curves for the ESFLR, ALR and LR models were 0.957, 0.828 and 0.818, respectively. The ESFLR model adequately addressed the spatial autocorrelation of residuals by reducing the Moran’s I value of the residuals to 0.0270. In conclusion, the ESFLR model is an effective and flexible method for landslide analysis.
A segmented processing approach of eigenvector spatial filtering (ESF) regression is proposed to detect the relationship between NDVI and its environmental factors like DEM, precipitation, relative humidity, precipitation days, soil organic carbon, and soil base saturation in central China. An optimum size of 32 × 32 is selected through experiments as the basic unit for image segmentation to resolve the large datasets to smaller ones that can be performed in parallel and processed more efficiently. The eigenvectors from the spatial weights matrix (SWM) of each segmented image block are selected as synthetic proxy variables accounting for the spatial effects and aggregated to construct a global ESF regression model. Results show precipitation and humidity are more influential than other factors and spatial autocorrelation plays a vital role in vegetation cover in central China. Despite the increase in model complexity; the parallel ESF regression model performs best across all performance criteria compared to the ordinary least squared linear regression (OLS) and spatial autoregressive (SAR) models. The proposed parallel ESF approach overcomes the computational barrier for large data sets and is very promising in applying spatial regression modeling to a wide range of real world problem solving and forecasting.
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to many deaths and economic disruptions across the world. Several studies have examined the effect of corresponding health risk factors in different places, but the problem of spatial heterogeneity has not been adequately addressed. The purpose of this paper was to explore how selected health risk factors are related to the pandemic infection rate within different study extents and to reveal the spatial varying characteristics of certain health risk factors. An eigenvector spatial filtering-based spatially varying coefficient model (ESF-SVC) was developed to find out how the influence of selected health risk factors varies across space and time. The ESF-SVC was able to take good control of over-fitting problems compared with ordinary least square (OLS), eigenvector spatial filtering (ESF) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models, with a higher adjusted R2 and lower cross validation RMSE. The impact of health risk factors varied as the study extent changed: In Hubei province, only population density and wind speed showed significant spatially constant impact; while in mainland China, other factors including migration score, building density, temperature and altitude showed significant spatially varying impact. The influence of migration score was less contributive and less significant in cities around Wuhan than cities further away, while altitude showed a stronger contribution to the decrease of infection rates in high altitude cities. The temperature showed mixed correlation as time passed, with positive and negative coefficients at 2.42 °C and 8.17 °C, respectively. This study could provide a feasible path to improve the model fit by considering the problem of spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity that exists in COVID-19 modeling. The yielding ESF-SVC coefficients could also provide an intuitive method for discovering the different impacts of influencing factors across space in large study areas. It is hoped that these findings improve public and governmental awareness of potential health risks and therefore influence epidemic control strategies.
This paper proposes a spatial difference analysis method for evaluating transit-based accessibility to hospitals using spatially adjusted ANOVA. This method specializes in examining spatial variations of accessibility to hospitals by regions (i.e. administrative districts or subdistricts). The spatial lag model is applied to adjust traditional ANOVA, which reduces spatial dependency and avoids false rejection to null hypothesis. Multiple comparison methods are used for further detection of differences in accessibility between regions. After multiple comparison, accessibility within regions is classified into three levels. The study is conducted on two scales—administrative districts and subdistricts—to discuss spatial variations in macro and micro dimensions respectively in the central part of Wuhan, China. Accessibility is calculated by using a simple model and a gravity model. The final classification results showed that the spatially adjusted method is more reliable than the traditional non spatially adjusted one and the gravity model can better detect more hidden information about the inequal distribution of medical resources. It is also found that the subdistricts, which have significantly lower accessibility to hospitals than others, are mainly distributed in Hongshan and Qingshan district. Our study hopes to shed new lights in spatial difference analysis for accessibility and provide policy recommendations that would promote equality in provisions of public health services.
With the acceleration of urbanization, citizens are facing more pandemic challenges. A deeper understanding of constructing more resilient cities can help citizens be better prepared for potential future pandemics or disasters. In this study, a static–dynamic analytical framework for urban health resilience evaluation and influencing factor exploration was proposed, which helped not only to analyze the basic static urban health resilience (SUHRI) under normal conditions but also to evaluate the dynamic urban health resilience (DURHI) under an external epidemic shock. The epidemic dynamic model could reasonably simulate the epidemic change trend and quantitatively evaluate resistance and recovery capacity, and the proposed influencing factor exploration model improved the model fitness by filtering out the influence of population flow autocorrelation existing in the residuals. SUHRI and DUHRI, and their corresponding key influencing factors, were compared and discussed. The results of the static–dynamic integration and difference score showed that 60.6% cities within the study area had a similar performance on SUHRI and DUHRI, but there was also a typical difference: some regional hubs exhibited high SUHRI but had only mid-level DUHRI, which was attributed to stronger external disturbances such as higher population mobility. The key influencing factors for static and dynamic urban health resilience also vary. Hospital capacity and income had the strongest influence on static urban health resilience but a relatively weaker or even non-significant correlation with dynamic urban health resilience sub-indices. The extracted population flow eigenvector collection had the strongest influence on dynamic urban health resilience, as it represents the population flow connection among cities, which could reflect the information of policy response, such as policy stringency and support intensity. We hope that our study will shed some light on constructing more resilient urban systems and being prepared for future public health emergencies.