Malania oleifera is a nationally Category II protected wild plant in China and a Vulnerable species on the IUCN Red List, specifically distributed in the karst forest, playing a crucial role in maintaining biodiversity and ecological balance in karst fragile ecosystems. In this study, the potential suitable habitats for M. oleifera were simulated by the MaxEnt model using 126 distribution records and 19 environment variables. The key environmental variables influencing its distribution were identified: topsoil USDA texture classification (t_usda_tex), precipitation of warmest quarter (Bio18), isothermality (Bio03), precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17), precipitation seasonality (Bio15), and temperature annual range (Bio07), which are clay soil, 606–882 mm, 33.1–43.5, 40.7–67.2 mm, 76.9–86.7%, and 20.6–23.1 °C, respectively. Under the future climate scenarios, the total area of suitable habitats for M. oleifera is expected to decrease, with a more significant reduction under the SSP585 scenario compared to the SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios. Compared to the current centroid of the suitable habitat, the future centroid is projected to shift southeastward. This study identifies stable habitats of M. oleifera in the Guangxi-Yunnan-Guizhou border region, recommending prioritized in situ conservation and breeding base development. Environmentally sensitive zones require continuous monitoring and adaptive protection strategies. Climate-adaptive cultivation trials are proposed for expansion areas like Guangdong. These findings offer scientific and practical guidance for sustainable management of this vulnerable species under climate change.

Zelkova schneideriana (Ulmaceae), an endemic relict species of the Tertiary in China, has experienced a sharp decline in population due to habitat fragmentation, poor natural regeneration, and anthropogenic disturbances. It is currently listed as a category II national key protected wild plant and categorized as Vulnerable by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). To explore its response mechanisms to climate change, this study integrates 11 species distribution models (SDMs) to comprehensively predict its suitable habitat distribution patterns. Key environmental variables were identified as Bio06 (minimum temperature of the coldest month, 21.57%), Bio02 (mean diurnal range, 19.81%), Bio17 (precipitation of the driest quarter, 13.52%), Bio15 (precipitation seasonality, 8.32%), Bio07 (temperature annual range, 8.15%), Bio12 (annual precipitation, 6.58%), and elevation (6.57%), collectively contributing approximately 85%. Spatiotemporal analysis revealed that during historical glacial periods, suitable habitats were significantly restricted, and highly suitable zones were absent under extreme climatic conditions, suggesting the presence of potential glacial refugia. Under current climatic conditions, highly suitable habitats have expanded notably. However, under the high-emission scenario (SSP585) in the future, the suitable range is projected to shrink considerably, with a drastic reduction in highly suitable areas. Moreover, the suitability centroid is expected to shift markedly toward higher elevations in the northeast, indicating a potential adaptation strategy of Z. schneideriana toward mountainous regions in Hunan, Hubei, and Chongqing. These findings provide quantitative guidance for the formulation of targeted conservation strategies for Z. schneideriana and offer methodological insights for predicting suitable habitats and managing related relict plant species under the threat of climate change.